Little change in Democratic caucus race; Clinton enjoys wide lead in three polls

CEDAR RAPIDS — Hillary Clinton appears to be in a strong position to win the Iowa precinct caucuses, according to a trio of polls released Tuesday.

A Loras College Poll released Tuesday morning showed that despite a slight dip in her support, the former secretary of state leads the Democratic field with the support of 58.9 percent of 501 likely Democratic caucusgoers from Dec. 5-10. Sanders polled 27.3 percent and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley trailed at 3.8 percent. A tenth of those polled said they are undecided.

Public Policy Polling's latest survey showed Clinton topping Sanders 52 to 34 percent lead with former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley backed by 7 percent.

And the Quinnipiac University Poll found that with an almost 2-1 lead among women, Clinton leads Sanders 51 to 40 percent among Iowa likely Democratic caucus participants. Another 6 percent supported O'Malley.

'Clinton's strength is largely based on her appeal to Democratic women among whom she leads by 2-1, a daunting base for those trying to upset her candidacy,' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll. He also noted that the Democrats 'seem to be playing a much gentler game than the nasty fight on the GOP side of the ledger.'

Loras poll director and political science professor Christopher Budzisz said the poll doesn't answer how much Iowa Democrats' expectations 'are built upon media attention and punditry, and how much on an accurate sense by Iowans of how other voters are likely to act.'

'But right now it looks like Clinton is in a strong position with the campaigns turning toward the holiday stretch,' Budzisz said.

Clinton's support dropped 2.7 percentage points from October, according to the Loras poll that has a margin of error of 4.4 percent. Sanders' support increased 3.7 percentage points.

To Budzisz, that indicates Democrats appear quite comfortable with the top two candidates.

'Say what you will about negatives Clinton may have in a general election, but right now among likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa she does not appear to be a divisive figure,' he said.

Despite recent terrorist attacks, 35 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers told Quinnipiac the economy and jobs are most important in deciding who to nominate compared to 7 percent who named terrorism as their top concern. Health care and climate change were the top concerns for 15 and 11 percent, respectively. Democrats favored Sanders 45 to 44 percent over Clinton on who would do a better job of handling the economy, but preferred her to handle terrorism by a 68 to 20 percent margin.

If the terrorist attacks have affected what Democrats are looking for, Brown said that having a long resume appears to be providing a sense of security.

'Less than a month ago, voters said caring about their needs and problems was most important,' Brown said. 'Now, caring is down 6 points, and having the right kind of experience is up 6 points.'

PPP found Sanders leads 47 to 40 percent with younger voters, but that's not enough to offset Clinton's 64 to 20 percent advantage with seniors. She also has leads with both women — 55 to 34 percent — and men — 49 to 34 percent.

Sanders backers can take heart in the poll results that the independent who caucuses with Senate Democrats appears to sufficient support to be viable in the Democratic caucuses. The Iowa party's rules requires a candidate to win the support of 15 percent of those at a precinct caucus to form a valid preference group and be awarded delegates.

'Given the current level of support for Sen. Sanders, I expect many Sanders voters will not have to exercise their second choice option,' Budzisz said.

O'Malley's support ticked up from 3.2 percent to 3.8 in the latest Loras poll. This consistency is not good news for O'Malley, who has actively campaigned in Iowa despite a tight budget, Budzisz said.

'These efforts don't seem to have translated into increased support among likely caucus voters,' he said, adding that 'it will be interesting to see if O'Malley alters his approach.'

Loras also asked who likely caucusgoers expect to win the caucuses and be the nominee. Clinton was expected to win the caucuses by a 79.4 percent to 12.2 percent and to be the nominee by an 81.8 percent to 10 percent margin.

'While the field is different than in 2008, Clinton has been in this position of presumptive caucus winner and nominee before,' Budzisz said. The final seven weeks of the campaign will be critical for Sanders 'to alter the developing narrative of how the 2016 nomination fight is likely to go.'

'The Sanders campaign is a real presence here on the ground in Iowa, and they will need to make these final weeks count to reverse popular perceptions about the trajectory of the race,' Budzisz said.

For more on the polls, visit loras.edu/poll, www.quinnipiac.edu/polling and www.publicpolicypolling.com.