Iowa legislature up for grabs

DES MOINES - Is the Iowa Legislature destined for two more years of split leadership? Or will one party gain control of both chambers?

Neither outcome is unlikely as Election Day draws near.

Democrats hold the slimmest of majorities, 26-24, in the Iowa Senate. The Republican advantage is not much greater in the Iowa House at 53-47.

Each party considers both chambers in play in the election, and the Senate race promises to be particularly close.

Both parties go into the Nov. 4 election with 18 guaranteed Senate seats. A dozen Democrats do not face re-election this year because state senators are elected to four-year terms, and six are running unopposed.

On the other side, 13 Republicans do not face re-election, and five don't have a challenger in the election.

That means the party that wins at least eight of the 14 competitive races will have control of the Senate.

In those 14 races, Democrats have slight edges in incumbents (6-5) and districts with a voter registration advantage (8-6).

Naturally, both party's leaders are bullish on their chances.

'I think we've got a very decent shot at hanging onto the majority and expanding it up to two or three seats,” said Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs. Gronstal is not up for re-election.

'We've got good candidates out there working hard.”

Gronstal said he feels good about all Democratic incumbents and in the open-seat race in Polk and Jasper counties to replace Dennis Black, who is retiring. He also said he believes Democrats can defeat a few Republican incumbents.

Senate Republican Leader Bill Dix, R-Shell Rock, said he thinks Republicans can pick off a few Democratic incumbents and compete well in a couple of the three open-seat races.

'I definitely believe that the opportunity to be in the majority is there,” said Dix, who is running unopposed. 'There are probably five or six seats that are going to be competitive that will determine the majority. We definitely have great candidates in the competitive seats that are working hard and listening to Iowans.

'So I think we have a good chance.”

Agendas

In the Iowa House, Democrats think they can flip control of the chamber. With 25 Democrats running unopposed, Democrats would have to win 26 of the 53 races in which they have a candidate.

'We believe that the kind of effort that we're putting forth in the campaign, the quality of candidates that we have, the mainstream agenda versus the Tea Party extreme is what will work for us in the November election, and more importantly how we will govern once we take control of the House of Representatives and move forward with the agenda we've put forth,” said House Minority Leader Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown.

Smith is being challenged by Republican Jane Jech of Marshalltown.

House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha, who briefly entertained a run for Congress, said he thinks Republicans will not only maintain control of the Iowa House but will increase their advantage.

'I feel real good about things. Obviously, we're in a favorable environment. The candidates are working hard, meeting with Iowans. We're getting favorable responses back,” said Paulsen, who is unopposed. 'I think we grow our majority.”

Republicans enter the election controlling the House and the governor's office. If House Republicans hold steady and Gov. Terry Branstad wins re-election - most polls indicate he will - the party needs only to flip that slight minority in the Senate to gain complete control of the state Capitol.

Democrats have warned against that prospect, claiming Republicans in full control would impart an 'extreme” agenda on the state.

'There are just a score of ways that it would be really bad if Republicans controlled everything,” Gronstal said.

When asked about their potential legislative agendas for 2015, Paulsen and Dix spoke of maintaining a balanced budget and reducing taxes for individuals and businesses.

Dix said if Republicans gain full control, he would advocate for a law that would require voters to show photo identification.