Get ready: Presidential caucus season starts Wednesday

Here is today's to-do list for Iowa political junkies: Go to the polls to cast ballots if you haven't voted early already; watch the evening election returns; and get a good night's rest, because the 2012 presidential caucus season officially begins Wednesday.

Candidates, campaign staff, volunteers and polling-place workers will log a 14-plus hour day today as hordes of Iowans cast ballots to decide who will fill the governorship, one of Iowa's two U.S. Senate seats, five congressional slots, five statewide offices, all 100 Iowa House seats and 25 Iowa Senate seats. Iowans also will decide whether to retain 74 judges and pass judgment on two constitutional ballot issues.

The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m.

Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro, who also is the state's election commissioner, expects an above-average turnout today. In November 2006, about 1.1 million Iowans, or 52 percent of the registered voters participated in that midterm election.

“I'm confident that we'll have more than we had in both '06 and '02, which was about 1.1 million in those years,” Mauro said. “The weather forecast sounds good and there's been so much advertising out there that I've got to believe that's got to motivate people to go vote. We're not going to have anywhere near what we have in a presidential election, but it's still going to be solid for a midterm.”

Mauro said more than 330,000 Iowans voted early this year – a record for a midterm general election -- but he said county auditors reported many of those were cast by regular voters so he didn't think it signaled a spike in turnout.

As soon as the dust settles on Tuesday's results, political experts say Iowa's hard-core political insiders – especially those on the Republican side with a sitting Democratic president – will turn their full attention to gearing up organizations for their candidates in preparation for the first-in-the-nation presidential precinct caucuses to be held in Iowa in February 2012.

“It's always the case with the caucuses that people tend to turn their attention more directly to them once the midterms are over,” said Drake political science professor Dennis Goldford. “For the average person, yes, there's already fatigue. But for the activist, no, there's never fatigue, otherwise they wouldn't be activists. They'll be gung ho. The activists are immediately setting their sights on '12.”

Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University, said a number of Republicans with 2012 aspirations already have been “jumping the gun” by campaigning for GOP candidates in various 2010 Iowa races or helping raise money. That list includes former Govs. Sarah Palin of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, George Pataki of New York and Gary Johnson of New Mexico, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Reps. Ron Paul of Texas and Mike Pence of Indiana, Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and Sens. John Thune of South Dakota and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

“In a way, we've certainly had an early exhibition season, if you will.” Goldford said. “It's always the case with the caucuses that people tend to turn their attention more directly to them once the midterms are over. The whole thing with the caucuses is you want people to get to know you, get to like you, get to believe in you, and showing up to help people in their own particular races is a good way of doing that.”

Goldford said Republicans will be especially fired up for the presidential election cycle if “they get the victory they're anticipating” in today's general-election returns across the nation.

While GOP prospects for 2012 look promising now, Drake University political science professor Arthur Sanders said so much of Democratic President Barak Obama's chances to win re-election will hinge on how the economy performs for the next two years. He noted that people were calling Ronald Reagan a one-term president in 1982 due to tough economic times and the same for Bill Clinton in 1994 when Republicans scored decisive midterm election victories, but they both went on to be re-elected handily.

University of Iowa political scientist Cary Covington agreed that Obama's fortunes rise and fall with the economy, and his potential vulnerability in 2012 likely will draw a lot of GOP interest in the party's presidential nomination.

“There's just a boatload of Republicans out there who are going to start milling around, coming to Iowa,” Covington said. “I would say if you want to meet a prominent Republican, make sure you go to the Iowa State Fair next summer. They'll be everywhere.”