Forecast predicts frigid Iowa caucus night. Will it impact voter turnout?

DES MOINES — Iowa is bracing for weather near 0 next week as the state's critical precinct caucuses kicks off the Republican presidential nominating cycle.

Heavy snowfall and dangerous travel conditions were expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by frigid temperatures that could drift below 0 degrees by caucus day.

What’s the forecast?

The National Weather Service’s seven-day forecast for Des Moines predicts snow continuing over the next few days, with single-digit highs expected Sunday — the day before the caucuses — in Cedar Rapids and temperatures not expected to climb above 0 in Sioux City. The Weather Channel predicts caucus day could see negative temperatures in several parts of the state.

How is the weather affecting campaigns?

The weather already has forced former President Donald Trump’s campaign to cancel multiple appearances by Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders and her father, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who had been scheduled Monday to court Iowa voters on Trump’s behalf.

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, canceled a visit to Sioux City due to snow.

“Inclement weather prevented Nikki Haley from getting to and from the event in Sioux City. She is here in Iowa through caucus day and we will be back in Northwest Iowa on Friday,” said campaign spokesperson Pat Garrett said.

Will the weather impact turnout?

Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann, speaking to reporters Monday in Des Moines, said he still expects high turnout for the Jan. 15 caucuses.

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“If there's not a severe ice storm, I don't think cold keeps people away,” Kaufmann said, predicting “a robust turnout” on caucus night.

“I mean, I do think … the weather could prevent a record breaking turnout into a great turnout,” he said. “But, you know, it remains to be seen.”

The state Republican Party has said it expects participation in this year’s caucus to be on par with 2016, in which a record of over 186,000 Republicans cast their preference for presidential candidate. The previous two contested cycles in 2012 and 2008 saw turnout of about 120,000.

If some Iowans are deterred from caucusing, the looming question is which candidate could be hurt most by voters’ unwillingness to brave the cold. Trump maintains a commanding lead in Iowa polling, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a distant second and Haley close behind.

Speaking to Iowa reporters Monday during a virtual news conference, DeSantis said his campaign still expects a large turnout of supporters.

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"I think they're still motivated to come in and meet and hear from the candidates. And so we're going to have a full schedule, do whatever we can do,“ said DeSantis, who was back in Florida to deliver his State of the State address Tuesday to the Florida Legislature.

He was scheduled to fly back to Iowa for a Fox News town hall later the same day, weather permitting. On Wednesday, he and Haley are set to participate in a CNN debate at Drake University in Des Moines.

Call for Democrats to be ‘#RepublicansForADay’?

Kaufmann also was asked about Democrats registering as Republicans on caucus night to be able to caucus for somebody other than Trump.

Bill Kristol, a Never Trump conservative and editor-at-large at The Bulwark, posted on X, formerly Twitter, that while only registered Republican voters in the state can participate in the Iowa GOP caucuses, Iowans can change their voter registration status at their caucus site, “cast their secret ballot, and leave.”

“They can be #RepublicansForADay to help stop Trump,” he wrote.

Kauffman said he’s unaware of any concerted, organized effort to get Iowa Democrats to participate in the Republican caucuses.

“First of all, shame on the Democrats,” he said. “I mean, they screwed up first in the nation. They didn't push back on their national party, and now their reaction isn't to rebuild their party while we’ve got center stage this whole time, but the reaction might be to show up and try to screw up what we've done?”

Iowa Democrats will hold party-organizing precinct caucuses Jan. 15, but will express their presidential preference using a new mail-in process and won’t announce results until March 5. The change came after national Democrats booted the state from its early nominating spot.

Kaufmann, too, assured Iowa Republican Attorney General Brenna Bird “will prosecute” any Iowa who attempts to vote in both party’s caucuses. State law prohibits an individual from participating in more than one nominating caucus.

"If a Democrat attempts to do that and participate in both, that's against the law. And we're going to be monitoring that very, very carefully,“ Kaufmann said. ”So bottom line is, could it happen? Yes. Do I think it will happen? No more, no greater chance than we have before.“

In requesting a mail-in presidential preference card, Democrats will be required to attest that they have not participated in any other political party's caucus.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

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