First-time Iowa caucusgoers key to Trump, Sanders victories

CEDAR RAPIDS — Fueled by a big lead among first-time likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers, Donald Trump has opened up a 31 percent to 24 percent lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released this morning.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders appears to be winning the support of first-time Democratic likely caucusgoers, giving him a 49 percent to 46 percent led over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heading into tonight's first-in-the-nation presidential precinct caucuses.

A Jan. 26 Quinnipiac poll showed Trump leading the GOP field 31 percent to 29 percent and Sanders leading Clinton 49 to 45 percent.

Only 3 percent of Republican likely caucusgoers remain undecided, and 28 percent who named a candidate said they might change their mind before the caucuses at 7 p.m.

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On the Democratic side, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley polled 3 percent with 2 percent undecided, but 14 percent of those who named a candidate said they might change their mind.

The key for both Trump and Sanders is first-time caucus goers, according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, who points to these key findings:

-- Trump leads Cruz 40 to 22 percent among these first-timers, while Republicans who attended prior caucuses go 26 percent for Cruz and 25 percent for Trump.

-- Sanders tops Clinton 62 to 35 percent among Democratic first-timers, while Clinton leads a 52 to 41 percent among voters who attended prior caucuses.

-- 44 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats said this will be their first caucus.

'The size of the turnout tonight will likely be the key factor, especially on the Democratic side,' Brown said. 'High turnouts with lots of new caucus participants likely would mean a good night for Sen. Bernie Sanders, and for Donald Trump.'

'Trump holds his own, while Sen. Ted Cruz seems to lose momentum in this final Quinnipiac University poll, finished less than 24 hours before the caucuses begin,' Brown added.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio 'is showing some last-minute strength, raising the long shot possibility he could challenge for second place,' Brown said. Rubio scored 17 percent, up from 15 percent in the Jan. 26 poll.

Among Iowa likely Republican caucusgoers, 35 percent say they 'would definitely not support' Trump, while 15 percent say no to Cruz. Men favor Trump over Cruz 38 to 24 percent. While women are divided 24 percent for Cruz and 23 percent for Trump.

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There is a huge gender gap among likely Democratic caucus participants, with men backing Sanders over Clinton 63 to 32 percent and women backing Clinton 56 to 39 percent.

Sanders leads Clinton 52 to 43 percent among Democrats who said the economy and jobs are most important and 66 to 30 percent among those who list climate change. Clinton is up 50 to 46 percent among those who identified health care as most important.

From Jan. 25-31, Quinnipiac surveyed 890 Iowa likely Republican caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points and 919 Iowa likely Democratic caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Live interviewers called landlines and cellphones.

For more on the poll, visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.