Ernst’s approval ratings up, Braley’s falling, new poll shows

CEDAR RAPIDS - A fresh poll from a Democratic polling firm shows state Sen. Joni Ernst leading U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, but the contest for an open U.S. Senate race remains within the poll's 2.8 percent margin of error.

PPP's newest Iowa Senate poll shows Ernst ahead of Braley 44 percent to 42 percent when third party candidates are included and 45 to 43 percent in a head-to-head match. The 2 percentage point advantage for Ernst is the same margin as it found when it polled in late August.

Perhaps the bigger news is that Ernst's favorability numbers are climbing while Braley's have fallen 17 points since PPP first polled the Braley-Ernst match-up in July 2013, according to pollster Tom Jensen. Then he was at +10 - 34 to 24 percent favorable/unfavorable.

The newest poll also marked the first time Ernst has had a better net favorability rating than Braley.

Braley, Jensen said, has a -7 rating, with 37 percent rating him favorably and 44 percent holding an unfavorable opinion. That's down from -4 at 37 to 41 favorable/unfavorable rating last month.

Meanwhile, Ernst is at -4, with 42 percent of voters rating her favorably to 46 percent with a negative opinion, numbers that are up from a -10 spread at 36 to 46 favorable/unfavorable rating in August.

Both candidates have locked down the support of their party's base, but Ernst has a 45 to 35 percent advantage with independent voters.

PPP also found:

' GOP Gov. Terry Branstad has a 52 to 38 percent lead on Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch in a head-to head match-up in the governor's race.

' Republican Paul Pate leads Democrat Brad Anderson 36 to 33 percent in the race for Secretary of State.

' GOP Auditor Mary Mosiman leads Democrat Jon Neiderbach 41 to 35 percent.

' Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller leads GOP challenger Adam Gregg 53 to 33 percent.

' Republican Bill Northey leads Democrat Sherrie Taha 49 to 29 percent in his bid for another term as Secretary of Agriculture.

' Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald has a 47 to 35 percent advantage over GOP challenger Sam Clovis.

PPP surveyed 1,192 likely voters from Sept. 25-28, with 80 percent of interviews conducted over the phone and 20 percent via the Internet to reach respondents without landlines.