Ernst still leads in newest Quinnipiac poll, but Senate race too close to call

CEDAR RAPIDS - Still close.

Iowa's U.S. Senate race appears to be going down to the wire, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released Thursday morning. It shows Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst continuing to lead the race for an open Senate seat 48 percent to 46 percent over Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley among likely voters.

The margin is the same as an Oct. 15 poll that showed Ernst leading 45 to 43 percent, and is within the poll's 3.2 percent margin of error.

'The race to succeed U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin in Iowa could be headed for a photo finish, with State Sen. Joni Ernst on the plus side of a too-close-to-call matchup with U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Ernst has had an edge on Braley throughout the race, Brown said, and that may be the key to a victory.

'Her campaign theme that she is the ‘farm girl next door' who made good has taken her from unknown state legislator to a serious shot at the United States Senate,” Brown said.

Meanwhile, Braley, a four-term House member, 'has been selling his Washington experience,” Brown said. 'We'll see on Nov. 4 whether that experience is such a valuable commodity with voters.”

In the Iowa gubernatorial race, GOP Gov. Terry Branstad has increased his lead since the mid-October poll. Quinnipiac puts the five-term governor's lead over Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch at 55 to 37 percent - 18 points. He had a 15-point lead eight days ago.

The Quinnipiac poll of 964 likely voters by live operators calling landlines and cellphones did find a shift among independent voters in Ernst's favor. The earlier polls showed a 12-point shift among independent voters helped Braley close and make the race too close to call, Brown said.

Thursday morning's poll shows independents giving Ernst 47 percent to Braley's 41 percent.

The reverse gender gap Quinnipiac found continues, as women back the Democrat Braley 53 to 40 percent, while men back the Republican Ernst 55 to 38 percent.

Braley leads 58 to 37 percent among those who already have voted, according to the poll.

In the race for governor, Hatch does not get the usual Democratic advantage among women, who back the governor 49 to 43 percent. Branstad has a 61 to 32 percent lead among men. He leads 94 to 5 percent among Republicans and 61 to 25 percent among independent voters. Democrats go to Hatch 87 to 11 percent.

Hatch is ahead 54 to 38 percent among those who already have voted.

Branstad gets a 56 to 35 percent favorability rating, compared to Hatch's split 31 to 31 percent score, with 35 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

'Absent an unprecedented turnaround, Gov. Terry Branstad is going to coast to re-election,” Brown said. 'If he serves out his next term, he becomes the longest-serving governor in American history.”

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling