Despite not being declared candidate, Walker pulls ahead of Iowa GOP caucus field

DES MOINES - Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has jumped out to a strong lead among likely Iowa Republican caucus participants, with an 8 percentage point lead over his nearest rivals, according to a poll out this morning.

In a four-way scramble for the lead in the Republican campaign, Walker - who has yet to formally announce his presidential campaign - polled 21 percent to 13 percent for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and 12 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, according to the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Rounding out the field are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 11 percent, physician Ben Carson at 7 and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent. No other candidate is above 3 percent and 6 percent are undecided, according to Quinnipiac.

'The first few months of the Iowa Republican caucus race show Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as the early leader,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll. 'Rubio of Florida, on the strength of an impressive candidacy roll out, has moved from the bottom of the pack into a tie for second.”

Fellow Floridian Bush, who also has not formally entered the race, has not fared as well. Not only is he in seventh place as caucusgoers' choice for a 2016 GOP nominee, but he tops the list at 25 percent when Quinnipiac asked likely caucusgoers if there is any candidate they would definitely not support. New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie followed at 20 percent and Paul at 10.

There's a bit of good news in the poll for most everyone, Brown said, including Bush.

'For national unknowns like Walker and Rubio, a fast start in Iowa may be critical to their chances of overall success,” he said, 'while supporters of national names like Bush note that fewer than half of Iowa winners wind up inhabiting the Oval Office.”

Although Walker leads the field, Rubio gets the best favorability rating, with 69 percent giving him a favorable rating and just 9 percent an unfavorable rating. For Walker, it's a 59 percent to 11 percent split, with 62 percent of caucus participants saying his positions on issues are 'about right.”

Scores for other leading Republican candidates are:

53 - 9 percent favorable for Carson, and 56 percent saying he's about right on the issues;

59 - 19 percent favorable for Cruz, and 58 percent saying he's about right;

64 - 27 percent favorable for Huckabee, and 59 percent about right on the issues;

59 - 23 percent favorable for Paul, and 51 percent saying he's about right.

'More of those surveyed view Bush unfavorably than favorably, compared to Walker's 5-1 positive ratio,” Brown said. He had a 39 to 45 percent favorability rating 'and 45 percent say Bush is not conservative enough.” Only 36 said Bush is about right on issues.

Republicans gave Christie a 32 - 56 percent favorability rating, with 52 percent saying he's not conservative enough on issues.

'Walker scores very highly on a variety of matrixes - honesty, leadership, caring about the needs of average folks and his favorability among caucusgoers,” Brown said. The poll found 69 percent think Walker is honest and trustworthy, 72 percent say he has strong leadership qualities and 72 percent think that he cares about their needs and problems.

For Paul, 77 percent see him as honest, 70 percent see leadership qualities and 75 percent believe he cares about voters' need. Rubio scores well, too, with 72 percent calling him honest, 70 percent seeing him as a strong leader and 72 percent seeing him as caring.

The Quinnipiac Poll of 667 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants was conducted from April 25 to May 4 using live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

For more, visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.

l Comments: (319) 398-8375; james.lynch@thegazette.com