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Could Randy Feenstra be a power broker in the 2024 Iowa caucuses?
Congressman from conservative western Iowa has not endorsed anyone in Republican presidential primary
SIOUX CENTER — All of this is new to Randy Feenstra.
Though the 54-year-old Hull native is in his second term in the U.S. House, the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses are the first he has navigated as a congressman. But the lack of familiarity hasn't been an impediment to Feenstra bringing in GOP candidates.
Over the past year, he has played host or appeared at campaign stops with GOP presidential candidates Ryan Binkley, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Those four attended a Faith and Family with the Feenstras event Dec. 9 on the Dordt University campus in Sioux Center.
Feenstra and his wife, Lynette, spent 30 minutes with each of the presidential hopefuls, taking turns asking questions about the candidates’ respective faiths, families and political issues.
Florida Gov. DeSantis and his wife, Casey, seemed especially comfortable with the Feenstras, trading jokes about raising kids.
“I think people enjoyed that,” Feenstra said. “Just hearing the passions and different topics that might give them the ability to say, /Hey, that is my candidate that I want to support.’ ”
A sea of red
Feenstra represents Iowa's 4th Congressional District, by far the most Republican district in the state.
“Congressman Feenstra is in a district that leans overwhelmingly Republican, so it's not surprising they're going to go to events in his district,” University of Northern Iowa Political Science Professor Christopher Larimer said.
The Cook Partisan Voting Index, which breaks down how Democratic or Republican a district is, gives the 4th District a score of “R+16” for 2023. Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, which includes Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, was “R+4” in 2023. The 1st District (Davenport, Iowa City) was “R+3” for 2023 as was the 3rd District (Des Moines, Ottumwa).
The ranks are based on how many points, in either direction, a district's voting habits differ from the national popular vote.
When Feenstra won his seat in Congress in 2020, he defeated Democrat J.D. Scholten by 24.2 points. The 2022 margin against Nevada, Iowa, insurance manager Ryan Melton was even larger (36.9 points) as Feenstra took 35 of 36 counties in the reconfigured district.
Carrying the 4th District has proved key for winning the state in the Republican caucuses.
In the 2012 cycle, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won 34 counties in the 4th District, on his way to a photo finish with the eventual Republican nominee, Mitt Romney.
When Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the Iowa GOP caucuses in 2016, he carried 24 of the 4th district's then 39 counties. Before the caucus on Feb. 1, 2016, Steve King, who served in Congress for 18 years (eight as the representative of the 4th District), endorsed Cruz over Trump, who went on to secure the nomination.
Bradley Best, a professor of political science at Buena Vista University in Storm Lake, said the endorsement led people to wonder if King's endorsement was a decisive factor in securing Iowa for Cruz.
“My sense is that King’s endorsement had little impact on Cruz’s win,” Best said. “Rather, King publicly aligned himself with Cruz because of the social conservatism they share, the fact that Cruz was positioned for a win in Iowa generally, and Rep. King’s desire to sustain a connection with his base in the months prior to his own re-election bid.”
Larimer said the connection between a pre-caucus endorsement and performance on caucus night — Jan. 15 in 2024 — is difficult to test.
“You don't know if someone was already motivated to vote for a candidate,” he said.
What is clearer, Best and Larimer agree, is the mutual benefit of a presidential campaign event hosted by a member of Congress.
“It’s exposure for the candidates and elevates the profile of the individual member of Congress,” Larimer said.
“Candidates and elected officials maneuver strategically,” Best said. “So, when they schedule joint appearances, ‘meetups’ with supporters, or fundraising events, it is because they perceive some mutual advantage in doing so.”
'There's always pressure'
At the end of August, Feenstra told reporters at a Tim Scott campaign stop in Sioux Center he planned to endorse in November or the early part of December. November arrived, and Scott, a third-term U.S. senator from South Carolina, dropped out of the race, and no endorsement came from Feenstra.
After Faith and Family with the Feenstras last week, Feenstra said the pressure to endorse is constant but not his top priority.
“My job, first and foremost, is to be the ambassador to anybody who wants to come,” he said. “Then, whether I'll be endorsing, that'll come later. I want everybody to be open-minded.”
Larimer said a non-committal posture is common for members of the Iowa congressional delegation.
“For the most part, it's been not really endorsing — certainly for Sen. Grassley, Sen. Ernst. Individual members avoid (endorsing) because they’re trying to generate enthusiasm for candidates of a party and enthusiasm for the party.”
This time could be different, though.
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsed DeSantis, the first endorsement by an Iowa governor since Terry Branstad backed former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole in 1996.
However, Feenstra's colleagues have said they're staying out of the endorsement game. Per NBC News, Reps. Ashley Hinson, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn all said they plan to stay neutral.
According to an endorsement tracker from FiveThirtyEight, 175 Republican members of the U.S. House have endorsed a candidate for president. A lion's share of those endorsements have gone to former President Trump, who leads DeSantis by 27.1 points in the FiveThirtyEight average of Iowa polls. He leads Haley by 31 points and Ramaswamy by 41.5.
Such massive leads have Larimer doubtful about endorsements from the Iowa delegation.
"I don’t see that at this point, but it seems like every day is something new," he said.
Were Feenstra to endorse, Best thinks there could be an upside for certain candidates.
“An endorsement from Randy Feenstra in the month or two prior to the caucuses would not be irrelevant,” he said. “Donald Trump's double-digit lead among Iowa Republicans is not likely to change on the basis of Rep. Feenstra's preferences.”
Trump's appearances in the 4th District have been rarer than visits from any presidential hopeful not named Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor who opted out of campaigning in Iowa. Since declaring his candidacy in November 2022, Trump has visited two of the 4th District's largest cities, Council Bluffs and Sioux City.
Feenstra, who will celebrate a birthday the day before the caucuses, isn't concerned about his place in the presidential campaign.
“I'm just excited to be part of it,” he said. “It's not about me so much as the candidates coming here and giving their views. I want to put Iowa on the map. So whoever becomes president, they know Iowa very well, and that this isn't the first time coming to Iowa.”
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