Control of Iowa Senate hinges on key 2016 races

DES MOINES — Whether Iowa's state government spends the next two years operating under split party control or whether Republicans take complete control depends largely on the outcomes of roughly a handful of legislative races on this fall's ballot.

The majority party sets the agenda in the chambers of the Iowa Legislature. Going into the election, Republicans control the House and Democrats the Senate.

That split control, which has been the case for the past six years, means Republicans and Democrats have been forced to agree with each other on many pieces of legislation, including the budget, before they can become law.

Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate. If, during the election, Republicans win enough races to take the Senate majority, the GOP — for at least the next two years — would have control of the Senate, House and governor's office. That would give the party unfettered control over the state's agenda.

Going into the election, the 50-seat Senate has 25 Democrats, 23 Republicans and one independent senator, a former Republican who changed his party affiliation in protest of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

There also is one vacant seat in the Senate, created by the passing of Sen. Joe Seng, a Democrat from Davenport. A special election for that seat, in a heavily Democratic district, will be held just after Christmas.

Assuming that seat stays in Democrats' hands, Republicans will have to hold their existing seats and flip three Democratic seats in order to achieve a majority in the Senate.

The following are the Senate races most likely to be competitive and impact which party emerges from the election with control of the chamber.

Both parties have reason to be encouraged. In each of these competitive districts where the Democrat is the incumbent, there are more active registered Republican voters than Democrats, according to data from the Iowa Secretary of State as of Oct. 1.

However, Democratic President Barack Obama won all of these districts the last time they were on the ballot, according to election results compiled by Daily Kos.

DISTRICT 34

County: Linn

Incumbent: Democrat Liz Mathis, Cedar Rapids

Challenger: Republican Rene Gadelha, Marion

Registered Democrats: 12,575

Registered Republicans: 13,162

Registered no-party: 14,725

2012 presidential result: Obama won by 5 points

Republicans spent far more in this district than Democrats during the recent fundraising period — $242,000 compared with just $44,000 — a signal the GOP perhaps is optimistic about its chances for a pickup.

Mathis won her 2012 election by 22 points; is well-known in the district as a former TV news personality; and has been a prominent face in Democrats' criticism of the decision by Republican Gov. Terry Branstad's administration to shift management of the state's $5 billion Medicaid program to private health care companies.

DISTRICT 32

Counties: Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Fayette

Incumbent: Democrat Brian Schoenjahn, Arlington

Challenger: Republican Craig Johnson, Independence

Registered Democrats: 10,486

Registered Republicans: 11,405

Registered no-party: 17,018

2012 presidential result: Obama won by 9 points

Schoenjahn has served three terms in the Senate and chairs the education budget subcommittee.

The two parties combined to spend more than a half-million dollars on this race in the recent three-month fundraising period. Republicans spent more on this race — roughly $314,000 — than any other.

DISTRICT 36

Counties: Black Hawk, Marshall, Tama

Incumbent: Democrat Steve Sodders, State Center

Challenger: Republican Jeff Edler, State Center

Registered Democrats: 10,838

Registered Republicans: 11,623

Registered no-party: 14,165

2012 presidential result: Obama won by 8 points

Sodders is finishing his second term in the Senate and chairs the Judiciary Committee.

Republicans say this is one of the Statehouse districts where they think their ground game will swing their way. 

DISTRICT 26

Counties: Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Floyd, Howard, Mitchell, Winneshiek, Worth

Incumbent: Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm, Cresco

Challenger: Republican Waylon Brown, St. Ansgar

Registered Democrats: 11,170

Registered Republicans: 11,974

Registered no-party: 16,505

2012 presidential result: Obama won by 13 points

Wilhelm is finishing her second term in the Senate. Highlighting the importance of this race to the election, Wilhelm was targeted with advertising by a conservative issues advocacy group during the 2016 legislative session. The ads pressed Wilhelm to support a proposal to couple state tax laws with changes to federal tax laws, thus creating expected savings for some Iowans, including farmers, who purchased business supplies. Wilhelm voted in favor of the legislation.

Wilhelm won her 2012 election by just 126 votes, or .4 percent. Meantime, Republicans have added more than 800 registered voters in the district since the beginning of the year, while the number of Democrats has remained stagnant and no-party voters have receded. 

DISTRICT 28

Counties: Allamakee, Clayton, Fayette, Winneshiek

Incumbent: Republican Michael Breitbach, Strawberry Point

Challengers: Democrat Jan Heikes, Decorah; Libertarian Troy Hageman, Calmar

Registered Democrats: 10,748

Registered Republicans: 13,853

Registered no-party: 13,504

2012 presidential result: Obama won by 9 points

This is the best opportunity for Democrats to swing a Republican seat in their direction. Obama won the district in 2012, and Breitbach won his first election to the Senate by a microscopic 17 votes.

The addition of a third candidate creates a wild-card for the race.

DISTRICT 46

Counties: Muscatine, Scott

Incumbent: Democrat Chris Brase, Muscatine

Challenger: Republican Mark Lofgren, Muscatine

Registered Democrats: 11,841

Registered Republicans: 12,168

Registered no-party: 15,330

2012 presidential result: Obama won by 13 points

Brase in 2012 won his first election to the Senate by 6.5 points, and now must face Lofgren, who served two terms in the Iowa House from 2011 to 2014.

During the campaign fundraising period that just concluded, the two parties spent a combined half-million dollars on this race, and Brase raised an impressive $130,000 for his campaign, much of it coming from labor unions.

DISTRICT 8

Counties: Pottawattamie

Incumbent: Democrat Mike Gronstal, Council Bluffs

Challenger: Republican Dan Dawson, Council Bluffs

Registered Democrats: 10,439

Registered Republicans: 10,036

Registered no-party: 11,767

2012 presidential result: Obama won by 10 points

It may seem unlikely that Gronstal, the most powerful Democrat in the Statehouse, could be considered in a battleground election, but the district's makeup allows for competition and Republicans are making a n effort to unseat the point man for stopping their legislative agenda.

The GOP spent roughly $319,000 — more than on any other race in the state — to support Dawson's campaign to defeat Gronstal.

Gronstal won his 2012 election by 10 points.