Conservative influence in caucuses can be strong, if forces coalesce

WATERLOO - About 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers during the past two election cycles identify as evangelical Christians, and they tend to show up regularly on those cold winter nights to ensure their voices are heard.

While they don't necessarily all vote the same, they can be an important voting bloc for candidates they choose to support. But there's an important caveat to that influence.

'For them to be an influential group, they need to perhaps coalesce around a particular candidate,” said Tim Hagle, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa.

'If their vote is split, then it's not as influential. Now, that could have been more of a problem, say, the last time around for the Republicans. But this time around, you don't have a single establishment-like candidate.”

Many Iowa Republican activists still are deciding who to support among the 14 candidates vying for their party's nomination. Events like Saturday's Iowa Grassroots Coalition Candidate Honest Assessment Summit gave social conservatives a chance to hear from Republican presidential hopefuls Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal. All GOP candidates were invited.

'You're going to find groups that will take a measure of all the candidates as part of this process and get them to address their issues, and then they make a decision whether they're going to endorse or whether they're not going to endorse,” said Donna Hoffman, political science department head at the University of Northern Iowa.

The Iowa Grassroots Coalition and the Cedar Valley Patriots for Christ, hosts of Saturday's event, are taking different tacks on endorsing candidates.

Judd Saul of the Patriots for Christ said his group's endorsement is coming soon.

Gregg Cummings, co-founder of the Grassroots Coalition, said his organization will monthly update the list of the five most conservative candidates on its website, www.iagrc.com, which is the closest the group will get to an endorsement.

It's not just official organizations that can make an influence. Hoffman noted that attendees at summits like the one Saturday are the most politically active and attuned.

Eric Rosenthal, an activist based in Cedar Rapids, said those activists are the workers who can effect change toward the candidate they choose.

As for which candidate will claim the prize of support from a majority of Republican caucusgoers, Rosenthal said it's hard to predict how and when people will coalesce.

'You can't plan coalescing. People will make up their own minds when they make up their own minds,” Rosenthal said.

'This is the beauty of our caucus process.”