Carson surges, Trump slides among Iowa GOP caucusgoers, new Loras Poll shows

CEDAR RAPIDS — Another poll has found Ben Carson surging to a lead over Donald Trump less than 100 days before Iowa's first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses.

Carson was the first choice of 30.6 percent of 500 likely GOP caucusgoers conducted Oct. 19-22 for the Loras College Poll. Trump was second at 18.6 percent, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio third at 10 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush fourth at 6.8 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz polled 6.2 percent and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal came in at 4.6 percent. No other candidate topped 3 percent.

Carson's stock started to rise over the summer, 'and this positive trajectory has continued to this point,' said Loras College Poll Director Christopher Budzisz. In an August Loras poll, Carson was at 18.1 percent and Trump was at 24.5 percent.

'Over the past week or so, Carson's campaign has been officially suspended as he pursues his book tour, but given his tour took him to several places in Iowa, he remained front and center for Iowa Republicans,' he said.

Carson's rise to first place in the Loras Poll mirrors the findings of polls last week by Quinnipiac University and CBS News. Also Monday, Monmouth University in New Jersey release a poll showing Carson leading Trump 32 percent to 18 percent with Cruz and Rubio tied at 10, and Bush at 8 percent.

Carson and Trump are scheduled to participate in the Republican Party of Iowa's Growth and Opportunity Party from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Oct. 31 at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines.

Carson has 'captured the attention of a Republican electorate in Iowa that is very dissatisfied with the direction of the country, President Obama and what they see as the political status quo,' Budzisz said.

In addition to being Iowa Republicans' first choice, Carson enjoys a favorability rating of 78.8 percent, far ahead of Rubio at 55.4 percent and Fiorina at 37.8 percent.

Trump's favorability rating is 23.4 percent and Bush is at 12.6 percent.

When Loras asked likely caucusgoers which candidate would be either their first or second choice, Carson topped the field at 49.6 percent to Trump's 27.2 percent. Rubio and Bush were at 20 percent and 14.4 percent, respectively,

The real test for Carson, Budzisz said, 'will be translating this attention and support into votes come February 1,' he said.

'One hundred days is a long time in caucus politics, especially for someone without much campaign experience,' he said. 'Carson need only look to the slip in the polls by Donald Trump for a reminder of this.'

Budzisz expects there will be some consolidation in the large GOP field before Feb. 1.

'The pressure will mount on campaigns to meet or exceed expectations in Iowa,' he said. 'It is not always about winning the Iowa caucuses. For many campaigns the need is to exceed expectations, to simply do well enough to move on to the other states in the nomination calendar.'

For more information, visit loras.edu/poll.