Campaign Almanac: Poll shows Trump with commanding, but less dominant lead among Iowa Republicans

A newly released New York Times/Sienna College poll of Iowa Republicans shows former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead, but less dominant than national polls.

The survey of 432 likely Iowa caucusgoers was taken before a third indictment against Trump was made public Tuesday, charging him with federal crimes connected to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

The new poll suggests more Iowa Republican voters are open to alternatives to Trump, but still overwhelmingly back him in the state that kicks off the Republican presidential nominating process with its first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Trump carried the support of 44 percent of Iowans polled — 10 percentage points lower than the support he holds with Republicans nationwide.

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His neatest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, came in second with 20 percent support of likely caucusgoers surveyed — slightly better than his 17 percent standing nationwide.

South Carolina Republican U.S. Sen. Tim Scott received support of 9 percent of those surveyed — triple his national standing. And his favorability rating among Iowa Republicans — 70 percent — is roughly on par with Trump’s (72 percent) and just behind DeSantis (77 percent).

Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former U.N. ambassador and former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and former Vice President Mike Pence each have single-digit support — polling slightly ahead or on par with national polling.

A Trump Iowa caucus win could give the former president the momentum needed to carve a clear path to the nomination, despite his mounting criminal charges and legal troubles.

The poll, though, suggests Iowa Republicans have some doubts about which candidate — Trump or DeSantis — is more likely to beat Democratic President Joe Biden in 2024.

According to the poll, Iowa Republicans are more likely than Republicans nationwide to see DeSantis as the more moral, likable and electable candidate — suggesting DeSantis’ efforts in Iowa have been having an effect, despite his campaign’s money troubles that led him to trim expenses, including laying off more than a third of his staff.

Slightly less than half of those surveyed said Trump is the candidate more able to beat Biden, while 40 percent picked DeSantis. Nationally, Trump holds a 30-percentage-point lead on the same question.

Ryan Binkley urges GOP to expand its tent, message, in new ad

Texas pastor and business executive Ryan Binkley, who is running for the 2024 GOP nomination, released a new 30-second ad in Iowa and New Hampshire urging Republicans to expand their tent and message to reverse recent electoral losses.

“Since President Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984, our party’s presidential returns have gotten worse with each new election,” Binkley said in a campaign release. “Now, we seem to be stuck at 46 percent of the popular vote. That won’t change until we change our message and our messengers.”

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A Republican presidential candidate has not won the popular vote in 20 years. Republicans lost their U.S. House majority in 2018, and the White House and U.S. Senate majority in 2020, and did not grow their numbers in the U.S. House in 2022 as much as historical projections suggest they should have.

"We have been disconnected from urban America. We wrote off college students, and we have stayed in our echo chambers,“ Binkley says in the ”Beyond 46“ ad.

He said his campaign seeks to reach into urban America with vocational and trade school training — allowing “hundreds of thousands to finally have a career and meaningful employment.”

“I will also lead a new volunteer movement in primary education that allows college students to help tutor and mentor children to read, write and do math, so they can succeed at every level,” he said in a statement.