Harris takes unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa Poll

New polling released Saturday of likely Iowa voters suggests Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris now leads Republican former President Donald Trump in a state both parties had all but written off.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows a seven-point shift from Trump to Harris from September that showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.

The latest poll, conducted between Oct. 28-31 by the widely respected polling firm Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 808 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2024 general election for president and other offices.

It shows Harris leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

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The results come just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states. Both candidates have focused their attention almost exclusively on the seven states that are expected to shape the outcome of the election. Neither has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state.

A victory for Harris would be a surprising development in state that Trump safely carried in both 2016 and 2020, and which has swung to the right in recent elections.

The Iowa Poll indicates that women are driving the late shift toward Harris in the state, while Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

The new poll finds women in the state largely favor Harris over Trump, 56 percent to 36 percent, while men support Trump by a narrower margin, 52 percent to 38 percent. And independents in the state, who have supported Trump in every other Iowa Poll this year, have flipped to support Harris, 46 percent to 39 percent.

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Pundits and pollsters largely reacted with shock and surprise to the latest polling. Democrats seized on the poll to highlight excitement and enthusiasm among Iowa voters since Harris accepted the presidential nomination after Biden bowed out of the race. Republicans called it a “clear outlier,” and pointed to another poll from Emerson College released Saturday that shows Trump with a 10-point lead in Iowa.

The Des Moines Register noted the final results of its nationally recognized poll mirrored the state's results of the 2016 and 2020 elections. The final 2020 Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll showed Trump leading Biden by seven points. The former president won Iowa by 8 points. The 2016 poll showed Trump with a seven-point lead over Hillary Clinton. Trump finished with a 9.4-point lead over Clinton in Iowa.

Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, in a statement, noted registered Republican voters outnumber Democrats in the state by 6.4 percent, or roughly 143,500 voters, and slightly lead Democrats in absentee and early voting in the state.

Kaufmann said the Emerson College poll more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and CNN exit polling from 2020, “and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.”

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart and Iowa House Democratic Leader Jennifer Konfrst hosted a news conference with reporters Saturday evening reacting to the new polling.

The pair emphasized the importance of voter turnout, noting Iowans' dissatisfaction with Iowa’s current Republican leadership and the importance of reproductive freedom and abortion rights. The poll, while not predictive of election results, provides momentum for down-ballot races, particularly in Iowa's closely contested 1st and 3rd congressional districts, the pair said.

Hart stressed the importance of the party’s ground game, with extensive door-knocking efforts, and acknowledged the potential impact of the poll on national party decisions regarding the future of Iowa’s Democratic precinct caucuses and its first-in-the-nation status.

“Remember, this is just a poll and what really matters is that Iowans show up and make their voices heard,” Hart said. “Iowans are paying attention and they know that Donald Trump and the Republicans are taking away their reproductive freedoms, taking public money and giving it to private schools, cutting Social Security and Medicare, and giving tax breaks to big corporations while leaving middle-class families behind.”

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