Campaign Almanac: Elections forecaster shifts Iowa U.S. House race toward Democrats as race takes shape

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” citing increased Democratic opportunities in the open-seat contest following Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson’s decision to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Hinson has built a strong fundraising base and a reputation as a formidable campaigner, writes Cook analyst Erin Covey. She outperformed former President Donald Trump by six percentage points in the district during the 2024 election, helping Republicans solidify control of a seat that has leaned red in recent cycles. But no GOP successor is likely to replicate Hinson’s personal brand, “prodigious” fundraising, or electoral strength, leaving the district more vulnerable to a Democratic pickup attempt, Covey writes.

Iowa’s 2nd District has historically been competitive. Democrats represented the area as recently as 2020, when former first-term Iowa Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer lost a closely watched race to Hinson.

While the district has swung right in recent years — President Donald Trump carried it by 10 points in 2024, increasing his margin from 2020 — Democrats hope strong statewide candidates, including gubernatorial hopeful Rob Sand, could lift down-ballot contenders. Sand carried the district by five points in 2022 during his successful re-election as state auditor.

Cook, though, notes that Democrats face an uphill climb. Republicans have a voter registration advantage of around 23,000 voters over Democrats in the district, which includes Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Decorah, Grinnell and Mason City. Democrats, though, have a better opening than in past cycles. Whether they can capitalize on it may depend on candidate strength, campaign resources and the impact of tariffs on Iowa’s agriculture-heavy economy.

National Democrats are expected to target the race as part of their broader effort to reclaim House seats in the Midwest, while Republicans must recruit a candidate capable of defending a district without Hinson on the ballot.

State Sen. Charlie McClintock of Alburnett, a former Cedar Rapids police officer, and former state lawmaker Joe Mitchell of Clear Lake, who founded an organization to recruit young conservatives to run for office and became one of the youngest members ever elected to the Iowa Legislature at age 21 in 2018, have declared bids on the Republican side.

Former Iowa Congressman Rod Blum, a Republican from Dubuque who represented northeast Iowa from 2015 to 2019, is weighing a comeback despite resistance from national party leaders, Covey reports. Republican state legislator Shannon Lundgren of Peosta has also said she is “seriously considering” entering the race.

Several Democrats also are running for the seat, including state Rep. Lindsay James of Dubuque, longtime Cedar Rapids nonprofit leader Clint Twedt-Ball, retired Army nurse and former community college nursing dean Kathy Dolter of Dubuque, and former state park manager Don Primus of Steamboat Rock.

Norris rolls out endorsements from more than 35 Iowa leaders in Senate campaign

Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines school board and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, unveiled a slate of endorsements Monday from more than 35 Iowa officials and community leaders.

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Backing Norris are Des Moines Mayor Connie Boesen, former Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson, state Sens. Clair Celsi and Tony Bisignano, and more than a dozen current and former school board members across the state. The campaign said the coalition reflects support from leaders in education, local government, business and agriculture.

“I’m honored to have the support of so many elected officials, community leaders, and educators who I have worked closely with to deliver for Iowans,” Norris said in a statement. “Right now, it’s impossible not to notice the invisible burdens families are carrying from rising costs, to barriers to accessing quality affordable health care, to the mental health crisis facing our kids. Iowa needs a leader in the United States Senate who will work across party lines to tackle these challenges head on.”

Norris has emphasized her record as a classroom teacher, nonprofit executive and school board chair. In Des Moines, she led efforts to limit student cellphone use in classrooms, a policy later echoed statewide by Gov. Kim Reynolds. As CEO of Goodwill of Central Iowa, Norris raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour for hundreds of employees.

Her campaign said the endorsements demonstrate confidence in Norris’ ability to “put in the hard work” for Iowans. The full list includes local school board members, county officials, former state lawmakers and community leaders from Cedar Rapids, Cedar Falls, Ames, Story County, Decorah and Council Bluffs.

Norris is seeking the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst. Others Democrats running for their party’s nomination to the seat include state Rep. Josh Turek of Council Bluffs, state Sen. Zach Wahls of Coralville, veteran and former chamber of commerce leader Nathan Sage of Indianola, and Bob Krause, of Burlington, a former state legislator and president of the Veterans National Recovery Center.

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Iowa City firefighters union backs Wahls in U.S. Senate race

Iowa City’s professional firefighters union endorsed Democratic state Sen. Zach Wahls on Monday in his campaign for the U.S. Senate.

The Iowa City Association of Professional Firefighters IAFF Local 610 announced its unanimous vote to back Wahls, citing his record of supporting firefighters, collective bargaining and workers’ rights.

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“Every call we answer demands trust, in our training, our equipment, and in each other. We need leaders in Washington who have our backs the same way we have each other’s,” union president Brandon Pflanzer said in the endorsement letter. “Our friend Zach Wahls has earned that trust and continually proven that he has our backs.”

Wahls, who was first elected to the Iowa Senate in 2018, has championed legislation to protect firefighters from occupational cancer and has been a vocal advocate for the federal PRO Act and the Public Service Freedom to Negotiate Act.

The union also pointed to Wahls’ backing of fair wages, safe working conditions and the right of workers to organize.

Wahls of Coralville, is seeking the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst. He has made labor a core tenet of his U.S. Senate campaign, connecting with union workers and reaffirming his support for expanded labor rights as he looks to distinguish himself ahead of the Democratic primary election next summer.

2nd District Republican Mitchell raises $200K in campaign start

Joe Mitchell, a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Eastern Iowa’s 2nd District, raised $200,000 in the first week of his campaign, he announced on social media.

Mitchell, a 28-year-old property developer from Clear Lake, became the second Republican to officially declare a campaign in the 2nd District when he announced his candidacy last Monday, Sept. 8.

Mitchell became one of the youngest people ever elected to the Iowa Legislature in 2018, when he was 21 years old. In addition to serving two terms in the Iowa House, from 2019 to 20022, Mitchell served in the Trump administration as a regional director for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and a chief of staff in the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Iowa’s 2nd District is an open-seat election after Republican incumbent Ashley Hinson announced her campaign for the U.S. Senate.

State legislator Charlie McClintock of Alburnett was the first Republican to announce his campaign for the 2nd District. State legislator Shannon Lundgren of Peosta and former Congressman Rod Blum of Dubuque, both Republicans, have said they are weighing a run.

Several Democratic candidates are in the field: state legislator Lindsay James of Dubuque, Cedar Rapids nonprofit leader Clint Twedt-Ball, retired Army nurse and former community college nursing dean Kathy Dolter of Dubuque, and former state park manager Don Primus of Steamboat Rock.

League of Women Voters to host Iowa City candidate forum Oct. 6

Voters will have an opportunity to hear directly from candidates running for Iowa City Council at a public forum hosted by the League of Women Voters of Johnson County.

The forum is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 6, from 7 to 8:30 p.m. at the Iowa City Senior Center, 28 S. Linn St. The event also will be livestreamed on the League’s Facebook page, with recordings available afterward on www.lwvjc.org and www.citychannel4.com.

Six candidates are currently vying to fill three seats on the Iowa City Council. Voters will elect three council members in November: two at-large seats and a representative of District B, which includes the east side of Iowa City. Each seat is for a four-year term that expires in 2030.

Council member Megan Alter and Mayor Bruce Teague are running for re-election to the two at-large seats, and face challengers Clara Reynen and Newman Abuissa, who are vying for a spot on the council.

In District B, incumbent Shawn Harmsen is running for re-election against challenger Amy Hospodarsky, the director of Crowded Closet, a nonprofit thrift store in Iowa City.

League members will moderate the forum and accept questions from the audience. The municipal election is set for Tuesday, Nov. 4.

The League of Women Voters is a nonpartisan, grassroots civic organization that promotes informed voter participation and public engagement in democracy.

For more information, visit www.lwvjc.org.