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Campaign Almanac: Biden, Trump in dead heat in Grinnell national poll
Also, super PAC launches effort to raise Doug Burgum’s profile in Iowa
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump would be in a dead heat among likely voters if the 2024 presidential election were held today, according to the latest Grinnell College National Poll.
Both Biden and Trump running as their party’s respective nominee attract 40 percent support among likely voters. Eighteen percent say they would vote for someone else, according to the poll, conducted in collaboration with renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer.
Support for both men splits along party lines, with 82 percent of Republicans saying they favor Trump and 83 percent of Democrats surveyed backing Biden. Independent voters remain divided, but tilt toward Trump, with 30 percent saying they would vote for someone else.
“We find President Biden and former President Trump are tied in a prospective 2024 race, but many voters aren’t yet sold on either candidate,” said Peter Hanson, director of the Grinnell College National Poll and associate professor of political science.
“Nearly one in five likely voters say they will vote for someone else. The size of this undecided group and its unpredictability adds a lot of uncertainty to the election outlook.”
A majority of those surveyed, 53 percent, also disapprove of Biden’s job performance. On specific elements of the job, 36 percent approve of his handling of the economy and 32 percent approve of his control over U.S. borders.
On other issues, a plurality say they are less likely to favor candidates advocating a national abortion ban and are less likely to vote for those backing a ban on gender-affirming medical treatment for minors. Forty-two percent are more likely to vote for candidates on the side of forgiving student loans and 41 percent support continued military aid to Ukraine.
A majority of respondents also said American democracy is under a major threat, a 5-percentage-point increase from two years ago.
A strong bipartisan majority also favors term limits for Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty-nine percent support abolishing the Electoral College, and a 49 percent plurality also would do away with birthright citizenship.
Group invests $1.35M to raise Burgum profile in Iowa
A super PAC backing presidential candidate Doug Burgum’s bid for the Republican nomination is launching a new ad campaign in an effort to boost North Dakota’s governor’s standing among Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states in the GOP nominating process.
The Best of America PAC announced it plans to spend $1.35 million in a television advertising and voter contact campaign to amplify Gov. Burgum’s message among Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and across the country. The campaign includes cable television ads, direct mail and a “direct text-to-voter program.”
"We are making sure the people of Iowa, New Hampshire and across America know that Governor Burgum is the conservative business leader and tech entrepreneur with the expertise and experience to turn America's economy around by putting his job creator experience to work for every American,“ Emily Benavides, Best of America PAC spokesperson, said in a statement.
Burgum failed to qualify for the third Republican presidential debate in Miami on Nov. 8. To participate, each candidate needs to satisfy fundraising and polling criteria set by the Republican National Committee.
A Real Clear Politics rolling average shows Burgum polling at 1.8 percent in Iowa and less than 1 percent nationally.
Female Democratic members of Congress endorse Christina Bohannan
A group of female Democratic members of Congress has endorsed Iowa City Democrat and former state lawmaker Christina Bohannan for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District.
Bohannan launched her second bid for Congress in mid-August, setting up a rematch against Iowa Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Miller-Meeks.
Iowa’s 20-county 1st Congressional District includes the cities of Davenport, Iowa City, Burlington and Indianola.
"A law professor, former engineer and mom, Christina knows the value of hard work,” U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, a Florida Democrat and chair of Elect Democratic Women, said in a statement. “As a state representative, Christina was a staunch advocate for women and families, fighting for reproductive freedom and affordable health care. Christina's unmatched work ethic will make her a powerful and effective leader in Congress."
Elect Democratic Women was formed in 2018 by Democratic members of Congress with the purpose of electing more women to Congress.
Union endorses 4 for Linn-Mar school board
The Linn-Mar Education Association, which represents school employees in the Linn-Mar Community School District, is recommending voters support incumbents Barry Buchholz and Brittania Morey and at-large candidates Justin Foss and Katie Lowe Lancaster for the Linn-Mar school board in the Nov. 7 election.
"Our recommended candidates understand our challenges and are dedicated to finding solutions to benefit students, families, and school employees,“ the association’s executive board said in a joint statement.
”Decisions made by the school board impact the educational experiences of thousands of students and employees now and for decades. We must elect good candidates who will work hard to support our public school community. We believe our recommended candidates will lead successfully.”
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