Bellwether Buchanan, Grundy counties back every Iowa caucus winner since 1980

CEDAR RAPIDS - If you're looking for an early indication of who will win Iowa's first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses, keep your eyes on a handful of Eastern Iowa counties that have backed the winners in every election cycle since 1980.

In particular, watch the results from Buchanan and Grundy counties, both of which have a perfect record of backing both the Republican and Democratic winners, according to an analysis by Smart Politics, a University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs blog.

On the other hand, be skeptical of the results from Adair, Allamakee, Clinton, Dubuque, Jefferson and Plymouth counties, where caucusgoers have backed the winning candidate in just three of seven cycles.

Smart Politics found that in the last seven Iowa Democratic caucuses since 1980, just 12 Iowa counties have backed the statewide winner each time. In addition to Buchanan and Grundy, Buena Vista, Carroll, Clayton, Clinton, Dubuque, Jackson, Marshall, Muscatine, Plymouth and Webster counties have perfect records.

They backed Jimmy Carter (1980), Walter Mondale (1984), Dick Gephardt (1988), favorite son Tom Harkin (1992), Al Gore (2000), John Kerry (2004), and Barack Obama (2008) in the caucuses.

Perhaps of particular note tonight is that in 2008, Hillary Clinton placed third in seven of the 12 counties with perfect records of picking Democratic winners, according to Smart Politics. They were Buchanan, Buena Vista, Carroll, Grundy, Jackson, Marshall and Webster. She was second in Clayton, Clinton, Dubuque, Muscatine and Plymouth counties.

Buchanan and Grundy are among 27 counties that are five-for-five in supporting the GOP nominee since Kansas Sen. Bob Dole's first victory in Iowa 28 years ago. The others are Adair, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Butler, Cass, Cherokee, Clay, Crawford, Emmet, Fayette, Floyd, Franklin, Greene, Guthrie, Henry, Jasper, Kossuth, Madison, Mills, Ringgold, Sac, Warren, Wayne, and Wright.

Those counties chose Dole (1988 and 1996), George W. Bush (2000), Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (2008), and Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (2012).

Although many of these races were not particularly competitive, at least one county did not give an outright plurality or majority to the statewide winner in each cycle, except in 1992 when Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin swept the state. Counties have not backed the Iowa caucus winner outright 149 times collectively across the last seven cycles, including 106 times in 2004 and 2008.

Even in those cycle where there was little drama for the Democrats, counties around the state could be found bucking the statewide trend. In 1984, Gary Hart won Harrison and Taylor counties, while George McGovern won Adair and John Glenn won Jefferson.

In 1988, neighboring Illinois U.S. Sen. Paul Simon carried 20 counties, while Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis carried eight. Jesse Jackson won Adair County and even former Arizona Governor Bruce Babbitt won Poweshiek County.

In 2000, meanwhile, New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley carried Allamakee and Washington counties and tied Vice President Al Gore in Fremont, Jefferson, Johnson, and Palo Alto counties.

Linn County failed to back the statewide winner in 1988 (Dukakis), while Scott County voted for Simon in 1988, as did Johnson, along with Bradley and Gore tying there in 2000. Black Hawk, the fifth largest county, voted for Simon in 1988 and Woodbury supported Clinton in 2008.

In the opposite of bellwether counties, Adair backed McGovern in 1984, Jackson in 1988, and John Edwards in 2004 and 2008. Jefferson went for Ohio Sen. John Glenn in 1984, Dukakis in 1988, Bradley and Gore (tie) in 2000, and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in 2004.

On the GOP side of the race, Allamakee County voted for evangelist Pat Robertson in 1988, Pat Buchanan in 1996, Mitt Romney in 2008 and Ron Paul in 2012. Clinton County voted for Robertson, Lamar Alexander in 1996, and Romney in 2008 and 2012. Dubuque backed Robertson, Buchanan and Romney twice. Plymouth went for Buchanan, Steve Forbes in 2000 and Romney twice.

For more, visit http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/