12-point shift by independents make Iowa U.S. Senate race ‘too close to call’

CEDAR RAPIDS — In the race for the first open Iowa U.S. Senate seat in nearly four decades, a shift by independent voters toward Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Bruce Braley makes that contest too close to call.

He trails Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst 47 percent to 45 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning. That's within the poll's 3.2 percent margin of error.

'The Iowa Senate race, which could be key to control of the U.S. Senate, is too close to call and likely will remain close all the way to Election Day,' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

At the same time, Quinnipiac found that Gov. Terry Branstad holds a 15 percentage point lead over Democratic challenger state Sen. Jack Hatch with three weeks until Election Day.

'The big question in the governor's race doesn't involve who is going to win,' Brown said, 'it's how large will Gov. Terry Branstad's margin be, and perhaps most significantly, will Gov. Branstad have coattails that might help Ernst across the finish line?'

The poll of 967 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 8 to 13 by live operators calling landlines and cellphones, found Ernst's lead in September has been cut in half as independent voters broke for the Democrat.

'Independent voters have made a 12-point left turn in four weeks' Brown said.

Ernst had a 50 to 44 percent lead a month ago, including a 50 to 43 percent lead among independent, Quinnipiac found. But the current poll shows independents backing Braley 48 to 43 percent.

The poll also found what Brown called a 'reverse gender gap' as women are 'forsaking their sister because she is a Republican.' Men however, are voting for Ernst by an even wider margin for the same reason — she is a Republican.

'Voters are choosing partisanship over gender when it comes to making their ballot choice,' Brown said.

Women back Braley 52 to 39 percent, up from 50 to 44 percent in September, according to Quinnipiac. Men back Ernst 56 to 38 percent, virtually unchanged from 56 to 39 percent in September.

Quinnipiac also found Braley leads 51 to 37 percent among those who already have voted.

Also, likely voters, by a 47 to 41 percent margin, have a favorable opinion of Ernst while Braley gets a split score — 42 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable.