Iowa Business Council survey projecting positive six-month economic forecast

Businesses in Iowa remain generally positive in sales, employment and capital spending over the next sixth months, though all three indicators have cooled since the last survey, the Iowa Business Council’s Economic Outlook Survey results show.

The first-quarter results were released last week, showing declines in all three areas when compared to results from the last survey, completed in fourth quarter of 2024.

The survey’s overall economic outlook index is 57.14, a decrease of 8.49 points from the previous quarter and 3.27 points below the historical average of 60.41 signifying a moderating approach over the next six months.

Sales expectations declined 4.46 points to a value of 64.29

Capital spending expectations declined 9.30 points to a value of 54.76

Employment expectations declined 11.68 points to a value of 52.38.

If the index measures above 50, sentiment is positive.

The survey results were captured prior to the April 2 tariff announcements.

“Despite an increase in uncertainty and recent downward pressure on markets, all three IBC metrics remain in positive territory,” stated Gage Kent, CEO of KENT Corporation and Chairman of the Iowa Business Council. “We look forward to continuing to work with policymakers in Iowa and in Washington, DC, to craft pro-growth business policies that expand opportunity across all sectors of Iowa’s economy.”

Unfavorable business climate including infrastructure, federal regulations and the national supply chain were listed as the top business challenge cited by about 71% of those surveyed. Inflation and workforce attraction/retention were both cited by 43% of those who responded to the survey.

“While uncertainty at the federal level — particularly around tariff and tax policies — creates challenges, we continue to see opportunities for growth and innovation,” Joe Murphy, Iowa Business Council President said in a statement. “By staying proactive and adaptive, Iowa businesses can navigate these uncertainties and position themselves for long-term success.”

The Economic Outlook Survey has been completed by IBC members on a quarterly basis since 2004. The reported trends have a statewide impact, especially when considering that IBC companies have a presence in all 99 counties.