Economists: We won't avoid a summer growth slowdown

High consumer confidence, a slowdown in manufacturing, rising stock prices.

Two senior Wells Fargo officers helped sort through the conflicting economic indicators Wednesday afternoon at the National Czech and Slovak Museum, where they discussed Washington, D.C., gridlock, farmland prices and the U.S. economic situation.

Though the economy has been gaining speed, Wells Fargo senior economist Gary Schlossberg said it's likely that it won't be able to avoid another spring-summer slow down.

“It's déjà vu all over again,” he said. “It's a pattern we've seen the last few years, the economy comes on better than expected at the end of the year, then magically it runs out of gas in the spring and summer, then just as miraculously it gains momentum at end of the year.”

Schlossberg said the economy is trying to avoid that growth slowdown but will probably be unsuccessful.

“We think (the slowdown) will be shorter, milder than the previous three,” he said.

Battles in Washington are hampering the economy, too, Regional Chief Investment Officer Cameron Hinds added, though some short-term fixes have been made.

“We have to give Congress a little credit for making short-term progress. We avoided the fiscal cliff, the sequester budget cuts went into effect - although not everyone is please with it - (and) both the House and Senate passed budgets for next year,” he said.

But the debt ceiling is still hanging over Washington like a dark cloud.

“They may have until October or November … but they need to reach agreement,” he said, adding investors are concerned that another credit rating downgrade could hurt the market.

Another point the men made: Increasing farmland prices could slow down because commodities are losing momentum.

“The growth rate may not be as strong as it was,” Schlossberg said. “But the demand for cattle and grains will continue, which is an important driver.”