‘Brain drain’ costing Iowa thousands of residents, billions in economic growth, new report says

DES MOINES — Zach Goodrich’s parents left Iowa twice: once after they graduated college, and after returning to Iowa to raise a family, again after Goodrich graduated high school.

Both times his parents left Iowa, Goodrich said, it was for bigger opportunities for them than the state could offer.

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That left an indelible impression on Goodrich, who earlier this year resigned as the leader of the state board that oversees state campaign finance laws to take a similar position in New Mexico.

At the time of his resignation from the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board in late May, the 29-year-old Goodrich said leaving his home state was not an easy decision, but one that was right for him at that point in his life. Goodrich said he realized that if he wanted to progress in his career, he would have to leave Iowa.

He left with a parting wish for his home state.

“My hope is that Iowa will work to combat ‘brain drain’ so that it can better compete with other states and again be a place where young professionals are welcomed and supported,” Goodrich said at the time.

Brain drain is the outflow of young, educated people from a geographical region. And while many places deal with brain drain, the issue is pronounced in Iowa.

It’s a battle the Collaborative Growth Initiative — a project of the Cedar Rapids Metro Economic Alliance and the cities of Cedar Rapids, Marion and Hiawatha — has been fighting.

“We’ve lost 8,200 residents since 2021 and most of those are young professionals,” Cedar Rapids Metro Economic Alliance Workforce Director Jodi Schafer told the Hiawatha City Council in early July. “What that means in real terms is that when people are retiring, we don’t have the workforce to fill those spaces. That's a pretty big challenge.

“Brain drain has been talked about in Iowa since I was a kid,” Schafer added. “But we’re at an inflection point where, if we don’t start to not lose residents or bring them back, we are going to have some real workforce challenges.”

Overall, Iowa’s population growth for years has been slower than much of the rest of the country. Iowa grew by an average of 0.44 percent annually from 2009 to 2024, according to Pew Research Center. That ranks 29th in the nation and is less than the national average of 0.51 percent annual population growth.

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What a new report says about Iowa

A new report published this week by Common Sense Institute Iowa, a nonpartisan research organization and pro-business, Iowa-based think tank, found that in 2024 Iowa had the nation’s seventh-highest cumulative net out-migration of young people ages 25 to 29 with a bachelor’s degree and the highest such figure in the Midwest.

Brain drain is not a new issue in Iowa; economists, elected officials and business leaders have been talking about it for years.

The new Common Sense Institute report is the latest to put numbers on the issue, including economic impact.

“Each year, hundreds of highly skilled Iowans graduate — and then leave. This talent drain is reshaping Iowa’s labor market and threatening the state’s long-term economic competitiveness,” the report says.

An annual average of nearly 1,000 Iowans aged 25 to 29 years — of all education levels — left the state from 1982 to 2024, according to the CSI report, a total of more than 41,000.

In 2023 alone, the state lost a net of 3,445 college-educated young adults between ages 25-29. With the modeling, the projected impact over that group’s working years means a loss of $17.6 billion in lost cumulative personal income and a loss of $383,991 in lost tax revenue per person, the report shows.

“The magnitude of net migration outflows is stark,” says the report, written by Common Sense Institute Iowa’s Director of Policy and Research Ben Murrey and research analyst Andrzej Wieciorkowski. It adds later, “In absolute terms, these migration trends are worrisome for Iowa’s labor force and economy.”

Iowa migration divided by education level

Iowa’s net outflow contains a distinct dividing line by education level.

According to the CSI report, from 1982 to 2024, individuals in Iowa ages 25 to 29 with some college education or a bachelor’s degree or higher had a net outflow of 109,395, while high school graduates or those without a high school diploma had a net inflow of 67,791.

If Iowa’s brain drain continues at its current pace, the CSI report says, it could result in a long-term economic loss of $6.1 billion in GDP by 2060.

Producing educated young residents in Iowa is not a problem, according to the report; the challenge is keeping more of those young people in the state.

“By the time a young college graduate leaves the state, Iowa — both from public and private resources — has made substantial investments into that individual. When they leave, the economic return on that investment leaves with them,” the report says. “Already, this out-migration has cost Iowa billions in lost GDP and personal income.

The report calculated the total public and private cost to educate a single Iowan who entered kindergarten in 2006 and graduated from an Iowa university in 2022. It estimated the state invested $255,713 per student in combined public and private dollars.

“Without action to bridge the gap between the state’s education pipeline and its economic opportunities, the talent drain will intensify — undermining Iowa’s ability to grow, compete, and thrive in the decades ahead,” the report says. “Future research could help illuminate why the talent Iowa produces is in such high demand elsewhere and examine the strengths and limitations of Iowa’s labor force in the national context.”

The full report can be found on Common Sense Institute Iowa’s website, commonsenseinstituteus.org.

Why are young Iowans leaving

Zach Goodrich said his parents left Iowa twice for bigger opportunities.

The Common Sense Institute report suggests Goodrich’s parents are not the only ones.

The report suggests part of the reason Iowa loses so many young, educated people is simple labor market supply and demand: Iowa produces a steady supply of educated, work-related individuals, the report says, but often stronger labor markets in other states — regions with more diverse economies and higher wages — poach in-demand Iowa workers.

Because college-educated workers are especially responsive to opportunity differences, the report says, even modest gaps in compensation or career potential can drive persistent out-migration, making Iowa a next exporter of human capital.

“For Iowa, this means that even though the state produces capable and educated individuals, it struggles to retain them in the face of competitive out-of-state opportunities,” the report says.

Goodrich said he can think of many examples of people who passed on out-of-state opportunities because they preferred to stay in Iowa, and people who chose to leave the state for what they believed to be greener pastures. The latter group, Goodrich said, appeared to experience better outcomes because they did not limit themselves to opportunities only in Iowa.

Just like it was for his parents, Goodrich said while leaving a sliver of hope for those who wish to see Iowa’s population and workforce grow and its brain drain to subside.

“Without getting into the current political, economic, health, or other issues confronting the state right now that surely contribute to brain drain, my parents’ brain drain story is what has largely shaped my view on the subject,” Goodrich said. “Their leaving Iowa on both occasions, as tough as it was, resulted in life-changing results for them and our entire family.

“And as they’ve told me ahead of (my) major move, you can always go back if it doesn’t work.”

Gazette reporter Grace Nieland contributed to this report.

Comments: (515) 355-1300, erin.murphy@thegazette.com