Women's basketball: Handicapping the Big Ten

The Big Ten women's basketball season begins Thursday. SourceMedia Group's Jeff Linder forecasts a tight three-team race for the championship, with six teams advancing to the NCAA tournament. Here's a look:

1. OHIO STATE.  Six-time defending Big Ten champions, the Buckeyes have the most star power and the best 1-2 punch in the league in Jantel Lavender and Samantha Prahalis, but Prahalis is shooting only 31 percent from the field. That mark must rise for the Buckeyes to reign again. Final regular-season record (including Big Ten tournament): 12-4 Big Ten, 25-6 overall, Big Ten Tournament champion. Postseason: NCAA, No. 3 seed.

2. IOWA. Returned its entire starting five from last year's NCAA second-round team, and the Hawkeyes have hit the ground running, off to a 12-1 start. Has shored up the defense, and that's a good thing, because the Hawkeyes are not shooting the 3-pointer as well as in the past. If Iowa stays healthy, it will be in the race to the end. Final regular-season record: 12-4 Big Ten, 26-6 overall, Big Ten Tournament runner-up. Postseason: NCAA, No. 4 seed.

3. MICHIGAN STATE.  Spartans lost 6-foot-9 Allyssa DeHaan to graduation, but appear to be better this season. MSU has won 10 straight games since getting waxed by Baylor, and its 12-1 start is the best in school history. Spartans allowed 52.5 points per game against non-conference opponents. Final regular-season record: 12-4 Big Ten, 25-6 overall, Big Ten Tournament semifinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 4 seed.

4. PENN STATE.  Beware the Lady Lions from long range: they lead the nation in 3-point percentage at 44.9 percent. Penn State will have some shootouts -- the Lady Lions are averaging nearly 85 points per game while allowing almost 69. Key game right off the bat when they host Iowa on Thursday. Final regular-season record: 10-6 Big Ten, 21-10 overall, Big Ten Tournament quarterfinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 8 seed.

5. NORTHWESTERN.  Wildcats' schedule lends itself to a fast start. NU opens at Indiana, hosts Purdue and Penn State, then travels to Illinois before Ohio State comes to Evanston. Six-foot-5 Amy Jaeschke is an all-American candidate, averaging 24.3 points and 9.e rebounds per game. Final regular-season record: 9-7 Big Ten, 21-10 overall, Big Ten Tournament semifinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 9 seed.

6. PURDUE.  The Boilermakers have been beset by medical issues. Point guard KK Houser is out for the season with an ACL tear, and Drey Mingo suffered meningitis. But Mackey Arena remains a snakepit for opposing teams, and Brittany Rayburn is off to another fast start; she leads the Boilers at 15.8 points per game and shoots 92 percent from the line. Final regular-season record: 9-7 Big Ten, 19-11 overall, Big Ten Tournament quarterfinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 10 seed.

7. WISCONSIN.  Frankly, more was expected of this team. The Badgers have floundered to a 5-7 non-conference record. It has not been a very good offensive team; UW is averaging 57.5 points per game. Morgan Paige has found a niche; the Marion native has started 10 games and averages 5.2 points and 23 minutes a game as a freshman. Final regular-season record: 7-9 Big Ten, 13-17 overall, Big Ten Tournament quarterfinalist. Postseason: None.

8. MICHIGAN. Wolverines have a penchant for starting fast, then fading. The 7-5 pre-conference record looks pedestrian, but three losses came to ranked opponents, and the Wolverines do own wins over Kansas and Boston College. Tough first four games (Ohio State, at Iowa, at Purdue, Michigan State) could bury UM in the standings. Final regular-season record: 6-10 Big Ten, 14-16 overall, Big Ten Tournament quarterfinalist. Postseason: None.

9. MINNESOTA.  Gophers have had some fairly impressive wins and some disappointing losses on their way to an 8-5 start. It's hard to imagine them as more than a second-division team, though they're capable of playing spoiler at home. Final regular-season record: 5-11 Big Ten, 13-17 overall, Big Ten Tournament first-round loser. Postseason: None.

10. ILLINOIS.  Not a lot of fight in the Fighting Illini. Final regular-season record: 3-13 Big Ten, 8-22 overall, Big Ten Tournament first-round loser. Postseason: None.

11. INDIANA.  Like Illinois, a program that isn't gaining much traction in the Big Ten.

Final regular-season record: 2-14 Big Ten, 8-21 overall, Big Ten Tournament first-round loser.

Postseason: None.