Is Matt Gatens of Iowa a first-team All-Big Ten player?

I think it's close. Real close.

Here are the players I think are locks: (All the statistics listed are for conference games only)

Draymond Green, Michigan State. 6-foot-7 senior:

This is my pick for Player of the Year in the Big Ten. 16.5 points per game, a league-high 10.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists. Fifth in the league in steals.

Jared Sullinger, Ohio State. 6-9 sophomore:

17.5 ppg, 9.3 rbg, league leader in offensive rebounds.

Tim Frazier, Penn State. 6-1 junior:

20.1 ppg (2nd in league), 5.6 assists, league-leader in assists and free-throw percentage.

That leaves two spots. The top contenders:

John Shurna, Northwestern. 6-9 senior:

League-best 20.6 ppg. 1st in the league in minutes played, 2nd in blocked shots, 3rd in 3-pointers made.

Matt Gatens, Iowa. 6-5 senior:

17.0 ppg (fifth in the league), 3rd in 3-point percentage (49.5), 1st in 3-pointers made (2.8), 7th in steals and certainly a candidate for the league's all-defensive team.

Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin. 6-1 senior:

16.4 ppg, 3.4 apg, 2nd in assists-to-turnovers ratio.

Robbie Hummel, Purdue, 6-8 senior:

16.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg (4th in league), 4th in free throw percentage (84.3), tied for 4th in blocked shots.

I don't see anyone else as a likely first-team candidate. Freshman guard Trey Burke of Michigan had a strong debut, guard Brandon Paul of Illinois had his shining moments, forward William Buford of Ohio State is rock-solid. But I think it's the three locks and two of the four others I listed.

Taylor had more preseason build-up. His team is returning to the NCAAs with Taylor clearly its leader.

Shurna will be hard to keep off the first team. He's had a fine career capped by a terrific senior season.

Ditto Gatens. He didn't lack for name-recognition, but his sterling play of the last couple weeks has been noticed in circles beyond Iowa. Any voters from Wisconsin or Indiana had to be wowed last week.

Then there's Hummel. Two ACL injuries in two years, but he came back to have a splendid season and put Purdue on the cusp of the NCAA tourney. He'll be a sentimental favorite among some.

It's tough to forecast the two among those four who will get first-team status. Look at it as objectively as possible, and I think you come up with Shurna and ... I don't know. How do you pick against Gatens? But Taylor is a winner, and the best player on a team going back to the NCAAs. And Hummel is a winner, too.

The media's preseason all-league team consisted of Sullinger, Green, Taylor, Hummel, and injured Trevor Mbakwe of Minnesota. Taylor was first-team all-conference in 2011. Hummel was first-team all the way back to 2008 as a freshman.

I wonder if I'm making too big an assumption on Frazier being first-team given he's on a losing team. But he has been fantastic and I'll stick with that. I thus predict Frazier, Sullinger and Green will be joined by Shurna (over Hummel) and Gatens (over Taylor). I think the recent momentum for Gatens is enough to be Iowa's first first-teamer since Adam Haluska in 2007.