Hoops breakdown: UNI vs Wichita State

By now you've heard that when No. 12 Wichita State rolls into Cedar Falls on Saturday for its game against No. 18 Northern Iowa at the McLeod Center, it will be the first ranked matchup of Missouri Valley Conference opponents since 1982.

It's also the first time any player on this UNI team has played in any game in which both teams were ranked in the top 25 of either the Associated Press or USA Today Coaches polls. The Panthers (19-2, 8-1 MVC) and Shockers (19-2, 9-0) sport identical overall records, and have a similar style of play.

Both teams have emerged above the rest of the Valley as the teams to beat, with Northern Iowa trying to prevent back-to-back regular-season league titles by Wichita State.

Here's a breakdown of the matchup between the two teams:

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Northern Iowa: Seth Tuttle

– Unquestionably, Tuttle is the go-to for the Panthers both on and off the court. He's their statistical and emotional leader, as evidenced by how quickly he gathered his teammates against Illinois State after Nate Buss hit what ended up being the game-winning shot with 5.2 seconds to go.

His game has developed into at least a triple threat and at most a quadruple threat. He scores and rebounds as any leading forward would, but passes well and can block shots at times. His biggest issues one-on-one come against bigger size, but his passing ability helps offset those deficiencies.

Wichita State: Ron Baker

– Unlike Northern Iowa, where Tuttle is the clear leader on the floor, Wichita State has three players who could carry that title. Baker enters Saturday's game averaging 16.1 points and 4.0 rebounds. He's shooting 46 percent from the field and 41 percent from 3-point range.

The combination of his size, speed and shooting provide matchup issues for every team the Shockers face, and it's likely he'll have Jeremy Morgan guarding him primarily for the majority of the game. Baker went from walk-on to team leader, and will provide one of three key positions the Panthers will have to defend.

Strengths

Northern Iowa: Defense and transition

– The Panthers' defense has been well-covered here and everywhere else for their stingy play and efficiency. They hold opponents to less than 40 percent shooting from the field at 37.9 and force nearly 12 turnovers per game (11.7).

UNI doesn't get a lot of points in transition, but what they do well is use it to set up what they want from the offense. When the rebounding is there, a combination of Wes Washpun and Deon Mitchell have controlled the ball well and found clean looks repeatedly. The boost comes when the shots fall, which is happening more and more.

Wichita State: Ball control and post play

– When you have a point guard like Fred VanVleet, ball control is almost never an issue. VanVleet has an assist/turnover ratio of 3.7, good for third best in the country behind Monte Morris of Iowa State and Kevin Pangos of Gonzaga. He controls the offense as well as any guard in the country, and is coming off a career-high 27 points against Loyola on Wednesday.

He and Baker hold down the perimeter while Darius Carter controls the paint. He's second on the team in scoring at 12 per game, and grabs 5.9 rebounds per game. He and fellow forward Shaquille Morris provide a pair of 6-foot-7 bodies that collectively cause problems for many teams. Both players shoot better than 50 percent from the field, and do a decent job staying out of foul trouble.

Weaknesses

Northern Iowa: Offensive rebounding and turnovers

– Coach Ben Jacobson has hammered home the importance of defense and rebounding all season, but the Panthers haven't found the consistency they've wanted on the glass – particularly on offense. Of UNI's 670 total rebounds this season (31.9 per game), just 160 of those have come on the offensive end. Though the Panthers are outrebounding opponents by 2.1 per game overall, they're missing valuable putback points.

And in terms of turnovers, UNI may be forcing 11.7 per game, but it's also committing 11.2 per game. In their last two games, the Panthers had 16 turnovers against Illinois State – a comeback, last-second win – and 12 against Southern Illinois, where they trailed by three at halftime. Carelessness with the ball is hard to overcome against any opponent, but nearly impossible against a team like Wichita State.

Wichita State: 3-point shooting defense and free throw shooting

– As good a team as the Shockers are, finding weaknesses is difficult. But by both the numbers and the eye test, Wichita State hasn't done a great job defending the 3-point line. Opponents are shooting 36.1 percent from deep, putting them 265th in the country. With shooters like Matt Bohannon, Paul Jesperson and Nate Buss, if the Shockers don't defend better on the perimeter, UNI could make them pay.

Maybe the biggest blemish on the Shockers is at the free throw line. They're shooting 67 percent from the line overall this season, and of players who have shot 20 or more free throws all season, only three players are shooting 70 percent or better – VanVleet (leading at 77.2 percent), Baker (75.7) and Zach Brown (70 percent). It hasn't cost them a game this season, but could play a factor Saturday.

Northern Iowa wins if…

the Panthers can take care of the ball and get Seth Tuttle in a rhythm.

One is as important as the other for the Panthers. It's impossible for Tuttle to settle in down low if the UNI guards aren't comfortable, and the team has shown it struggles mightily to score if he's not at least a threat to do so whenever he's in. Do the former so the latter will be possible and UNI gets the upset.

Wichita State wins if…

the Shockers can keep Seth Tuttle in check and guard the 3-point line.

As mentioned above, if Tuttle is taken out of the game in a scoring capacity, it could be a long afternoon for the home team, as evidenced Wednesday night in Carbondale, Ill. against Southern Illinois. UNI got wins early in the season where he didn't score a lot, but conference play has been a different story. Offsetting UNI's guards offensively won't be an issue with VanVleet and Baker, so if Tuttle is bottled up and UNI shooters aren't open, the Shockers stay unbeaten in conference.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com