Hawkeyes best of West? Give it a firm maybe

Originally, this was going to be a cautionary essay suggesting Iowa fans not put much faith in forecasts of a Big Ten West title.

They're out there. Some 10-2 projections here and there, an occasional 11-1. High times.

But why discourage it? What's the point of being a fan if you can't dream big at a season's start, or at least consider the possibilities? It's not like the country is overrun by optimism these days.

Besides, who's to say the Hawkeyes can't have a monster season? You win all the games you're expected to win, you win the coin-flip games, and voila! On to Indianapolis in early December. Which isn't something you would wish on anyone but a Big Ten football team.

Sure, sure, it's easier said than done. Games at Pittsburgh, Maryland and Minnesota are anything but gimmies, and Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska have been known to win at Kinnick Stadium in recent years. That's just half of the schedule.

'It's supposed to be hard,” Tom Hanks' character Jimmy Dugan said in 'A League of Their Own,” a baseball movie infinitely better than 'Field of Dreams.”

'If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard is what makes it great.”

And it is hard. Thirty-four of the 77 games Iowa has played since 2008 were decided by one score. The 2009 team that went 11-2 won four games by three points or less. Flip any of those to the loss column, and the Hawkeyes don't go to the Orange Bowl.

But the 8-5 Iowa club of 2010 regarded as the biggest disappointment in Kirk Ferentz's 15 seasons as head coach? It lost four Big Ten games by a total of 11 points. Win two of those, and it's a darn good season. Win three, and it's stellar.

The line between great and good (or good and mediocre) can be as thin as a freshman kicker. What separates a championship-contender from a good team?

'Injuries and luck are two of the things,” Ferentz said this week, 'how you handle the ups and downs. Hopefully we'll have some ups. It's not guaranteed, but I know we'll have some downs. That's part of life and part of football.

'Despite everybody wanting to, nobody can predict what's going to happen here the next four months.”

Auburn had a great 2013 season. It battled Florida State to the very end of the national-title game. But in describing the ways it beat Georgia and Alabama to get to the BCS Championship, 'miracle” wouldn't be a gross misuse of that word.

To have a special season, you either have to have some good fortune accompany a very good team or you have to do what Michigan State did last season in Big Ten play. Which is carve through your schedule like a hot knife through I Can't Believe It's Not Butter!

MSU won every league game by double-digits and held five conference foes without a touchdown. The last time an Iowa team dominated like that was the final six games of the 2002 Big Ten season.

Do this year's Hawkeyes have that kind of potential? You and I don't know, and neither do those who pick them to go to the Big Ten title game. Or the TaxSlayer Bowl.

It wouldn't be fun if we did know. Although, it would sure help when it came to wagering.

l Comments: (319) 368-8840; mike.hlas@thegazette.com