Five reasons to believe in the Hawkeyes, five reasons not to

IOWA CITY — Whatever happens, and it will, these Iowa Hawkeyes are in it. You've seen some good things, you've seen some bad. The bottom line is it's October and the Jell-O that is the 2014 Hawkeyes has yet to settle into whatever fun mold you envision.

Life might be a box of chocolates, but the Hawkeyes are a bowl of Jell-O. Is that a solidly formed Tiger Hawk you see, with maybe a little Cool Whip? Or is that a runny puddle of goo?

You don't know. Iowa has wins over Northern Iowa, Ball State, at Pitt and at Purdue. It's hardly given anyone a real read on what Iowa is or isn't. Iowa has a loss at home to Iowa State. Yeah, that was bad, really bad, but that also was game 3. The season goes on, the team grows or it doesn't.

The Jell-O will be in the refrigerator for another two months and seven games. Is the fridge door shut, or did the running game leave it open?

Here are your reasons to believe that is a Tiger Hawk you're about to eat and have the Cool Whip ready:

1. That defensive line

— The tackle tandem of seniors Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat stand among the best in the Big Ten. They combine for eight tackles for loss and three sacks. Those numbers don't tell the entire story. Davis is a monolithic 6-5, 315-pounder with a point guard's first step. Trinca-Pasat's family is from Romania, but not the same exact Romania as Count Dracula. He is, however, as difficult to defeat.

End Drew Ott is a fully-matured 6-5, 270 pounds. He won the Solon Beef Days hay bale toss this summer and is holding his own in the Big Ten disruption bale toss with three sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss.

Iowa has made due at the other end spot. Junior Nate Meier will always be undersized, but he'll not be under-violent. Senior Mike Hardy can set an edge. There's value in that for a defense that has had busts on the perimeter against Iowa State.

Sophomores Faith Ekakitie and Jaleel Johnson see more and more meaningful minutes on the inside. That's a huge boost.

This is Iowa's 'A' unit.

2. Home schedule

— You heard all preseason about what a nice, easy schedule Iowa had. Easy is in the eye of the beholder, but let's go as far as calling Iowa's schedule 'favorable.'

Let's chart it out: This month, Iowa (4-1, 1-0 Big Ten) faces Indiana (3-2, 0-1) today at Kinnick, travels to Maryland and then takes its second bye.

November is a grinder against all of the Hawkeyes' connected border rivals: Northwestern, at Minnesota, at Illinois, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Going into week three of Big Ten play, the West Division favorites clearly are Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin in that order. Iowa has all three at home. That's an advantage.

It should be an advantage. From 2008 through 2011, Iowa had a run of 23-5 at Kinnick. In the last three seasons, it now stands 8-9.

3. Experience in close games has paid off and must continue to pay off

— This one might belong more in the 'maybe Iowa' category, but the fact of the matter is Iowa has come through when it's had to in 2014.

Going into the Purdue game, Iowa was the only one of the 128 teams in FBS that played four games decided by one score.

Iowa has two fourth-quarter comebacks this season (Ball State and Pitt). It erased a 10-point deficit to defeat Ball State, 17-13, at home, and rallied from down 17-7 to win at Pitt, 24-20. That was the Hawkeyes' first road win after trailing by 10 or more points in the second half during the Kirk Ferentz era.

It's good to have efficient fire drills. Of course, it's better to not allow a fire to start.

4. Very simply, Phil Parker

— Parker is in his third season as Iowa's defensive coordinator. He's coordinating. Iowa finished No. 7 in the nation in total defense last season, the highest finish of the Ferentz era. If Iowa's defense lacks one thing it's overall team speed. Parker has found workarounds that are fallible, but the numbers speak for themselves. This year, OK, the competition Iowa has faced so far raises questions. The highest-ranked offense Iowa has faced so far has been Pitt at No. 75. This weekend, it jumps to No. 18 Indiana (513.2 yards a game).

Parker rates high in adaptability. Against Purdue, Iowa took 29 defensive players on the trip and played 24. Parker has morphed the third-down blitz package into personnel that have given the defense better chances at getting off the field. The third down package maximizes Iowa's speed and keeps QBs from rushing for third downs.

Out of the 'Raider' blitz package, Iowa has played zone and man coverage. He's pushed the 'blitz' button about 20 percent of the time.

Parker has pulled the right strings. Of course, the steep part of the schedule is coming up.

5. Senior stability

— The senior leadership rallying cry is something that matters on a Thursday practice when butts are dragging and the team needs a stern reminder that it's time to pick it up.

It's not so much points on the board, but pride. Iowa has enough of this to matter, from offensive tackle Brandon Scherff to wide receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley to defensive tackles Davis and Trinca-Pasat to linebacker Quinton Alston.

It's an intangible and it can't hurt, but Iowa has real problems that won't be fixed by rah rah.

Here are the hurdles between the Hawkeyes and Indianapolis (you know, the Big Ten title game):

1. Running game

— Iowa's talking point here is that it's not any one thing. It's sometimes the offensive line, but not always. It's sometimes the running backs. It's rhythm in the play-calling. It's formation. It's 11 players digging into the details and executing.

That's all very true, and none of it can be comforting. That's 11 possible problems that can detonate at any given time. Iowa's weakness in the explosive plays department also chips in here. Iowa has successfully run 17-play drives for points this season. Seventeen perfect plays is a tough way for any offense to make a living.

If junior Jordan Canzeri gets healthy and finds his stride, that would greatly help. Iowa averages 3.59 yards a carry. That's a team stat. Forget who plays QB, that's the number that has hurt Iowa the most.

2. Quarterback

— The storyline of the week. Davis said last week that Iowa would play both quarterbacks, junior Jake Rudock and sophomore C.J. Beathard.

You have Rudock's 17 games as a starter. You have Beathard's short-term success. You have Rudock's 66.9 completion percentage, which is on track to be the best in the Ferentz era (Kyle McCann completed 66.3 percent in 2001). You have Beathard's release. Both Ferentz and Davis acknowledged that he gets the ball out rocket fast.

The QBs have a chance to be a positive. Ferentz said all week that Iowa planned to use both players. There's no map for that. It may or may not work, but the Vegas betting reaction was a 7-point Iowa spread shrinking to 3. That's a pick 'em against Indiana at Kinnick Stadium on homecoming.

It might work, but more people are betting against it. Literally betting.

3. Sustaining the explosive threat

— Against Purdue, Iowa put up a big number in explosive plays. It had four plays of 20-plus yards (four pass plays) and recorded nine more plays that fit Davis' category for explosive plays (rushes of 12-plus yards, passes of 16-plus). That's a big, big day and that usually means a win for Iowa.

By the way, here's what quarterbacks are looking for every throw, according to Davis: 'There is usually a deep element to it that is typically covered, then there is an intermediate ball and a check-down ball. One thing we tell quarterbacks is you can't go broke making money. So, when you drop a ball down to Damon [Bullock] and he makes 16 [yards] on second-and-15, that's a pretty good play. If you drop it down to him on second-and-15, and he makes 4, it's a bad play because you didn't get enough of it back. At the same time, you have to ask your quarterback to go through a process of progression, and come to the best decision that you feel like is there.'

The key elements there are 'deep element' and 'typically covered.'

4. Punt

— Junior Dillon Kidd won the job in a heated camp battle with fellow junior and incumbent starter Connor Kornbrath. Iowa still is waiting for that Kidd to show up.

Kidd deserves credit for the Pitt game. He had a 51-yarder and pinned the Panthers inside their 20 one other time in three punts. Beyond that, his averaged is 38.13 yards, 13th in the Big Ten, and he's booting a returnable ball. Iowa has had four punts returned and have allowed a 14.0 average on those (12th in the Big Ten).

To bring a little more focus to that, 14 yards is nearly a first down and a half for opposing offenses. You don't want to help the opposing offenses.

5. Being an easy read on offense

— We've talked about personnel groupings on offense. Iowa's top two groups are the two running back and two tight end set (22) and one back, one tight end (11).

Against Purdue, the Hawkeyes ran 14 plays out of 22 personnel and gained just 14 yards. Safeties cheated up and Iowa lost a numbers game at the line of scrimmage.

'One thing that grouping will be and has been is a lot of short yardage,' Davis said. 'So there is some short yardage situations that if you make 2 yards on third-and-1, then your yardage looks really poor, but your consistency is pretty good. There is some of that situation, but I think we do have to have more production out of 22.'

Out of 11 personnel, Iowa ran once.

'What we haven't done a whole lot of is played much 11 personnel on first down,' Davis said. 'It's basically been a third-down situational personnel grouping for us. We have more runs in that personnel grouping than we've actually used.'

Davis said he'd like to use more 21 (two backs and one TE). Maybe it reaches that point. Maybe that constrains the defense more effectively.

These are tendencies. From here, they either stay tendencies or become set up.

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com