Early perceptions of ‘14 Cyclones shaped by schedule

I'm not going to tell you Iowa State has a great football team.

The Cyclones are 0-2, are 107th in the nation in total defense and 115th in total offense, and have dropped 17 of their last 22 games.

But if they'd played the early schedules of Maryland, Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma or many other teams, they might be 2-0 and we'd be talking about the Cyclones in a somewhat-different light today.

Give ISU an opening two games against SMU and Northwestern State (Baylor's sked), or Eastern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State (Minnesota's), and Saturday's game in Kinnick Stadium might be a battle of unbeatens.

Give Iowa an opening two games of North Dakota State and Kansas State, and are you certain the Hawkeyes would be 2-0?

Here's one reality: Iowa State blew first-half double-digit leads and got outplayed in the second halves of losses to N.D. State and K-State.

Here's another: The only teams in the nation that have played tougher 2-game schedules are Florida Atlantic (at Nebraska and Alabama) and Fresno State (at USC and Utah).

But Iowa State is the only team in America that has played two teams in the top 30 of the current Sagarin Ratings.

North Dakota State, for the woefully uninformed, is and has been terrific. Proof of that is NDSU having won the last three FCS national-titles in a division that includes Eastern Washington (a 7-point loser at Washington Saturday) and McNeese State (a 7-point loser at Nebraska Saturday).

Regarding the Sagarins: North Dakota State is ranked ahead of all but three Big Ten teams. Iowa is 50th. I don't know Jeff Sagarin's formula, but it isn't flawless when Ohio State is 12th and Virginia Tech is 15th. But his computer formula, like all others, has quirks after a mere two weeks.

Kansas State, meanwhile, is 31-10 since the start of the 2011 season. One of those 10 losses was at home against ... North Dakota State.

Anyway, Iowa will greet an opponent that has already had plenty of experience going against good coaching and talent. While a lot of teams would have their daubers down after an 0-2 start, the Cyclones will almost surely bring fire and brimstone to Kinnick Stadium.

Since the Cyclones have outscored their opponents in first-halves and Iowa has been outscored 33-27 in the first three quarters of games, a fast start for the Hawkeyes would fly against what we've seen so far.

Not to say that it can't happen. It did last year, to a degree, when Iowa took a 13-0 halftime lead on its way to a 27-21 win. The Hawkeyes rushed for 216 yards that day. They are averaging 132 this season.

I'm not trying to sell this game as anything more than it is. Iowa is a 12-point favorite (after opening at 13.5 and 14.5 depending on the Las Vegas shop you favor). That seems about right to me, though some Hawkeye fans have told me the oddsmakers must be on drugs to post a number that high.

But if anyone on the planet isn't on drugs, it's Vegas oddsmakers.

By the way, Iowa is 0-2 against the point spread this season. Just sayin'.