Crunching the prep playoff numbers

The high school football regular season comes to a close Friday night, with playoffs beginning next Wednesday.

Eight area district champions have been crowned - Cedar Rapids Washington and Linn-Mar in Class 4A, Clear Creek Amana in 3A, Union and Williamsburg in 2A, West Branch in 1A, Maquoketa Valley in Class A and Elkader Central in 8-Man.

The top four teams in each district advance to the postseason. First-round pairings will be released by the Iowa High School Athletic Association late Friday night.

This year, pairings will be released after each round. There are no set brackets.

Here is a look at the area district races with one game remaining:

CLASS 4A DISTRICT 5

Linn-Mar (7-1, 4-0) and Cedar Falls (6-2, 3-1) are locked into the top two spots. Three other teams have their destiny in their own hands. The winner between Waterloo West (3-5, 2-2) and Cedar Rapids Kennedy (1-7, 1-3) is assured a bid. Cedar Rapids Jefferson (4-4, 2-2) is in for sure if it upsets Linn-Mar or if West beats Kennedy. In the event of a three-way tie at 2-3, Kennedy (minus-2 points) has an advantage on the J-Hawks (minus-5) and the Wahawks (minus-7).

CLASS 4A DISTRICT 6

Top-rated Cedar Rapids Washington (8-0, 4-0) has the championship wrapped up, and Muscatine (6-2, 3-1) is assured a bid. If Ottumwa (5-3, 2-2) wins at Cedar Rapids Prairie (3-5, 1-3), the Bulldogs and Iowa City High (2-6, 2-2) grab the other two berths, regardless of the outcome between the Little Hawks and Muscatine at Bates Field. If Prairie and City win, Ottumwa is out. If Prairie and Muscatine win, Ottumwa (plus-10) is in, and the last berth will be determined by points. City High is at minus-9, Prairie at minus-17.

CLASS 4A DISTRICT 7

The math is simple here, with all the qualifiers determined. The champion will be determined at Trojan Field, where Iowa City West (5-3, 3-0) hosts Pleasant Valley (5-3, 3-0). Davenport Central (4-4, 1-2) is at Dubuque Hempstead (5-3, 1-2), with third place on the line.

CLASS 3A DISTRICT 3

Two games will determine the fate of five teams, and the many possibilities include a five-way tie for the title at 4-2. West Delaware (7-1, 4-1) and Waverly-Shell Rock (6-2, 4-1) are guaranteed playoff berths, and the Hawks are district champions if they beat Decorah (5-3, 3-2) at home. WSR closes with Charles City (5-3, 3-2), while Independence (5-3, 4-2) faces a non-district game at Maquoketa and awaits the other results, hoping for its first postseason bid since 1985. Charles City is guaranteed a berth with a win. Decorah needs one of two combinations - a win and a Charles City loss (which would eliminate the Comets), or a 12-point win (with, which coupled with a Charles City win, would leave Indee out).

CLASS 3A DISTRICT 4

Cedar Rapids Xavier (5-3 overall), Solon (7-1) and Western Duuque (5-3) all are 4-1 in the district, and that's the order in which they would finish if they all win Friday. All close at home - Xavier against Marion, Solon against Dubuque Wahlert, Western Dubuque against DeWitt Central. Wahlert (3-5, 3-2) owns the other playoff berth, and could move up to third if it upsets Solon, an event that would give the district title to Western Dubuque if the Bobcats win.

CLASS 3A DISTRICT 5

Clear Creek Amana (7-1, 5-0) wears the district crown while the winner between Davenport Assumption and Washington (both 5-3, 4-1) earns the second-place finish and home-field advantage for its first-round playoff game. Fairfield (5-3, 3-2) has the fourth spot locked up.

CLASS 2A DISTRICT 3

It's a four-team deadlock at 4-1 in district play, with two games Friday determining the final order. North Fayette Valley (7-1 overall) hosts New Hampton (6-2), while Center Point-Urbana (6-2) is at Dyersville Beckman. There will be a tie for first and a tie for third, with head-to-head being the determining factor in both. CPU would have the edge over NFV, NFV over Beckman, Beckman over New Hampton, New Hampton over CPU.

CLASS 2A DISTRICT 4

One of the best stories in the area this season has been the transformation at Anamosa, and the Raiders (7-1, 5-0) can capture the district title if they prevail at Cascade (7-1, 5-0) in a winner-take-all game. Mount Vernon (4-4, 3-2) is sitting pretty for the third spot, and Monticello (3-5, 2-3) gets the final slot if it beats Northeast or if Mount Vernon handles Tipton (4-4, 2-3).

CLASS 2A DISTRICT 5

Williamsburg (8-0, 6-0) is the champion, with Mediapolis (7-1, 5-1) playing Mid-Prairie (4-4, 3-2) for the second spot. Should Mid-Prairie lose, it likely would slip into a three-way tie for third, but has a big advantage in tie-break points over both Central Lee (5-3, 3-3) and West Burlington-Notre Dame (3-5, 2-3). Either way, Central Lee needs WBND to lose to Louisa-Muscatine to qualify.

CLASS 2A DISTRICT 6

The four qualifiers are solid here. Union (6-2, 5-0) is the champion, while Aplington-Parkersburg and South Tama (both 6-2, 5-1) will battle for the second position at Tama. South Hardin (4-4, 3-2) is locked in at fourth, and hosts Union on Friday.

CLASS 1A DISTRICT 4

South Winneshiek (8-0, 5-0) has been one of the state's most dominant 1A teams, but still has some work to do before it can claim a district title. The Warriors host Hudson (6-2, 4-1), which also has a playoff berth wrapped up, as does Dike-New Hartford (6-2, 4-1). Sumner-Fredericksburg (5-3, 2-3) qualifies if it beats Clayton Ridge (3-5, 1-4) or if Jesup (4-4, 2-3) loses to Dike-New Hartford. Clayton Ridge still has mathematical hope for the fourth spot, but must beat Sumner-Fredericksburg by at least 12 points and DNH must beat Jesup by at least two.

CLASS 1A DISTRICT 5

All four qualifiers have been determined. West Branch (8-0, 5-0) has wrapped up the title, and North Cedar (7-1, 4-1) has earned the second spot. Bellevue (6-2, 3-2) and Alburnett (5-3, 3-2) are tied for third, with the Comets owning the head-to-head tie-breaker and an easier Week 9 opponent (they host Wapello while Alburnett is at West Branch).

CLASS 1A DISTRICT 6

Four-time defending state champion Iowa City Regina (7-1, 5-0) meets Pella Christian (6-2, 4-1) with the league title on the line. Eddyville EBF (4-4, 3-2) and Sigourney-Keota (4-4, 3-2) also are playoff-bound and favored to win this week. Pella Christian owns a large points advantage on both in the event of a three-way tie for second.

CLASS A DISTRICT 5

Three positions have been filled. Maquoketa Valley (8-0, 6-0) is heavily favored to put a bow on an unbeaten regular season at home against Postville, and has wrapped up the divisional title. Lisbon (5-3, 5-1) hosts North Linn (4-4, 4-2) for the second spot, while the last spot will be determined in what amounts to a play-in game at Arlington, where Starmont (3-5, 3-3) hosts Edgewood-Colesburg (3-5, 3-3).

CLASS A DISTRICT 6

Pekin (8-0, 6-0) is the champion and Van Buren (6-2, 5-1) is in line for the second position. Lone Tree (5-3, 4-2) and Winfield-Mount Union (5-3, 4-2) have locked up the other two spots.

CLASS A DISTRICT 7

Montezuma (8-0, 6-0) and BGM (7-1, 6-0) tangle for the title Friday at Brooklyn. The other key game is at Sully, where Belle Plaine (6-2, 4-2) faces Lynnville-Sully (3-5, 3-3). Belle Plaine already has a spot wrapped up, while Lynnville-Sully needs a win and an unlikely loss (or close win) by Colfax-Mingo (5-3, 3-3) against winless Garwin GMG.

8-MAN DISTRICT 4

The key contest is at Lansing for the final spot: Midland (3-5, 3-3) vs. Lansing Kee (5-3, 3-3). Everything else is in order; high-scoring Elkader Central (8-0, 6-0) is the champion while first-year 8-man team Turkey Valley (7-1, 5-1) and West Central (4-4, 4-2) are sitting second and third.

8-MAN DISTRICT 5

Defending state champion Don Bosco (8-0, 6-0) is riding a 22-game winning streak and has wrapped up the division title. HLV (7-1, 5-1) is second if it can manage a road win against Colo-Nesco (5-3, 4-2). That result also would likely mean a three-way tie for third place between Colo-Nesco, Meskwaki Settlement (4-4, 3-3) and English Valleys (4-4, 3-3). Colo-Nesco has a healthy lead on both in a point-spread tie-breaker, with Meskwaki one point ahead of EV. Meskwaki also holds the head-to-head advantage on the Bears should it become a two-team tie for fourth.

l Comments: (319) 368-8857; jeff.linder@thegazette.com