2-Minute Drill: The Wisconsin Badgers

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Wisconsin is the No. 1 defense in the nation. It's not even close. The Badgers have allowed 244.0 yards a game, while the No. 2 school, Clemson, is at 262.1. Before last weekend's demolition of Nebraska, you could argue that the UW defense hadn't played anyone worth a darn, with Bowling Green being the best (No. 35 national in total offense). Nebraska went into the game at Madison ranked No. 17 in the country in offense. The Huskers mustered just 180 total yards and dropped to No. 33.

Numbers, numbers, numbers. They just pour out of defensive coordinator Dave Aranda's 'rebuilt' defense. Rebuilt is in quotes because the Badgers did need to replace eight starters, including six of their front seven, from last season. One more barrage of numbers: The UW has held four opponents to less than 200 yards of total offense (matching Clemson and Ole Miss for most in FBS. Opponents average 4.09 yards per play (best in the nation). UW has held opponents to less than 100 rushing yards in six of its last nine games.

This is a no-name defense with a bunch of contributors who've bought into Aranda's scheme. Outside linebacker Vince Biegel (6-4, 244 soph., pictured above) is a playmaker (team-highs with 14.0 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks). Outside linebacker Joe Schobert (6-2, 240 jr.) was named Big Ten defensive player of the week after Nebraska with a fumble, had 11 tackles (2.5 for loss) and combined on a sack. 

Aranda threw a 2-4-5 alignment at Nebraska last week. It worked because his players aggressively fill gaps, swarmed the ball and tackled well.

In their three losses this season, the Hawkeyes were held to 2.9 (ISU), 3.7 (Maryland) and 2.8 (Minnesota) yards per carry. When Iowa's offense plays off-schedule, it is generally sunk. It's just not built for third-and-long (let's call that 7 yards). The playbook narrows and pressure is thrust upon the passing game.

Iowa's card to play here is a physical game. Last week at Illinois, the Hawkeyes used two or more tight ends in 47 of 79 plays. So, one thought is 13 personnel with three tight ends. This is maximum manpower on the line of scrimmage that still maintains a hint of the passing game.

Perhaps your spotlight matchup here is Iowa center Tommy Gaul (6-3, 280 sr.) vs. Badgers nose guard Konrad Zagzebski (6-3, 277 sr.).

Advantage: Wisconsin

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This is probably Iowa's biggest test today, squeezing something through the air against Wisconsin. Corners Darius Hillary (pictured above) and Sojourn Shelton have held up well in man-to-man coverage, allowing the Badgers to play two linebackers in the middle.

Third down is really kind of the mystery down in regard to Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers have scouted you to the point where they're sending in a sub package before you set your personnel group.

'What you see on first down and second down, I don't want to say it's simple because it's not simple, but they do a wonderful job of doing what they do,' Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. 'Then on third down, who knows what you're going to get there.'

Can Iowa stretch the field? Realistically, probably not. Iowa is No. 72 in the nation with 87 pass plays of 10-plus yards. Wisconsin is No. 3 in this category, allowing just 51 10-plus passing plays. Again, third-and-long will be death to the Iowa offense.

Junior safety Michael Caputo has a team-best 70 tackles, and senior inside linebacker Derek Landisch, among four new starters at linebacker, is No. 2 on the team in tackles for loss (12) and sacks (six). Wisconsin has started in a 2-4-5 alignment the last two weeks with Peniel Jean (5-11, 194 sr.) and Devin Gaulden (5-10, 187 jr.) trading starts. If the Badgers play a third D-linemen, it will be freshman Chikwe Obasih (6-2, 268 fr.) or Arthur Goldberg (6-3, 290 soph.).

How much two- or three-tight end personnel can Iowa get away with? Ferentz said this week the offense works better when it can spread the ball around with tight ends and receivers involved. There has been nothing easy or automatic in the passing game this season. Don't expect a big breakthrough against the No. 1 defense in the country that also happens to be really good at getting to the QB (32 sacks is No. 2 in the Big Ten).

Advantage: Wisconsin

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After he had the chance to take in running back Melvin Gordon's record 408-yard performance against Nebraska last weekend, UW coach Gary Andersen went right to the heart of how and why the Badgers' running game has worked and worked and worked. 'I think one thing you can't go without noticing, our ability to get the ball to the edges of the defense forces people to be not gang up on us as much,' Andersen said.

Gordon (pictured above, 6-1, 213 jr., nation's leading rusher at 190.9 yards a game, with 1,909 yards and 23 TDs this season) and his offensive line complement each other, but the peripheral blockers (wide receivers, tight ends, fullbacks) all do their jobs exceedingly well. When you have a running back go for 408 yards, it's a total-team thing. Tight ends Sam Anreson (6-4, 244) and Austin Traylor (6-3, 248) set a mean edges. Last week in particular, wide receiver Alex Erickson (6-0, 196 jr.) threw open-field blocks that disrupted the Huskers' run-force players.

That's the periphery. For zone plays to get that far, work has to be done on the inside. Iowa's defensive tackles Louis Trinca-Pasat and Carl Davis have to hold-up against double teams or Iowa's linebackers will find themselves trying to run around players like guard Dallas Lewallen (6-6, 321 sr.). Right then and there, the objective is complete. Gaps are open and Gordon is on the second level making highlights.

Iowa's cornerbacks Desmond King and Greg Mabin (seventh and eighth on the team in tackles with 46 and 45, respectively) have consistently shown willingness and ability to jump up and be run force in Iowa's defense. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker asks his corners to play that vital role against the run. But ...

The only way this is going to work for Iowa's defense is if the D-line can get off blocks. It's something you hear every week, but defensive ends Drew Ott and Nate Meier need to hang on at the line of scrimmage and not be moved. If they get moved, gaps open and Gordon has options.

Iowa has been lit up on the ground in three games this season. Indiana and Tevin Coleman went for 316, nondescript Maryland rushed for 212 and Minnesota cracked Iowa for 291 with QB Mitch Leidner leading the way with 77 yards. That doesn't look good for this game. But Iowa didn't capitulate during the week.

'It's all up to us, our mindset,' senior defensive tackle Carl Davis said. 'I feel like we can do it, I feel like we can hold him to under 100. But, you know, it's going to come with great technique, everyone getting to the ball, it's going to take a lot. They have a good team.'

Advantage: Wisconsin

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Wisconsin's offense obviously leans heavily to the run. The Badgers are No. 3 in the nation with 351.2 rushing yards a game and No. 119 in passing with 142.0 per game. The Badgers have won this way, but they'll have a harder time winning big with that much of an imbalance.

This is where we talk about the odd season of junior quarterback Joel Stave (pictured above). Remember the weirdness that surrounded the Badgers' first four games? You probably don't because it's been all Gordon, but Stave didn't play in the Badgers' first four games because he had a case of the yips. He had a glitch in his throwing motion that unraveled his confidence. His first game back was a disaster, throwing three picks at Northwestern and basically setting the table for the Badgers lone B1G loss so far this season.

Instead of balling up in the fetal position and calling it a season, Stave (6-5, 220 jr.) has taken control of his game. He's completed 60 percent or better in three of his last four games, including five TD passes and just one interception.

As if Wisconsin already didn't give Iowa enough to think about, it also has a zone-read QB in Tanner McEvoy (6-6, 222 jr.). He actually has a higher yards per carry (9.4 on 53 attempts) than Gordon (8.5). It's ridiculous. You just have to laugh at this firepower. It's ridiculous.

Because it will someday be an answer to a trivia question, Erickson leads Wisconsin receivers with 37 catches for 480 yards and three TDs.

One of the tricks for Iowa's defense in this game is deciding who in the back seven plays pass on third downs. Can anyone afford to do that for Iowa? It's a necessity. Iowa's linebackers have been a beleaguered group this season. They need to look at the Minnesota video and decided if they want to go through that again.

Advantage: Iowa

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Wisconsin has got it going here, too. Against Rutgers, the Badgers blocked a punt that jumpstarted what turned out to be a 37-0 victory. In the first quarter of what turned out to be a 52-7 blowout of Maryland, UW punter Drew Meyer executed a jump pass for 17 yards in the first quarter to push the Badgers to a field goal and a 10-0 lead.

Freshman kicker Rafael Gaglianone has made 13 of 16 field goals, including 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards. He's currently on a streak of eight consecutive successful attempts.

Wisconsin has a two-punter system that includes Meyer and quarterback Bart Houston. Both are rugby-style kickers and the fact that there are two (including one QB) shows you that special teams coach Jeff Genyk has been charged with figuring it out and not being the thing that screws up a championship run. With Gordon and the nation's No. 1 defense, you don't want to be that guy.

Can Iowa gain an advantage here? Probably take punt return off the list, especially with sophomore receiver Matt VandeBerg replacing Riley McCarron, who's out with mono. Do you take kick return off the board? Freshman RB Jonathan Parker was replaced by junior RB Jordan Canzeri last week. The positive momentum Parker, who's still No. 2 in the league with 24.6 a return, built going into a disastrous performance against Minnesota seems to have disappeared.

Kicker Marshall Koehn saw a streak of seven consecutive field goals go by the wayside last week when he hit the right upright on a 46-yard attempt. Iowa's punting remains fractured with juniors Connor Kornbrath and Dillon Kidd taking turns.

Badgers wide receiver Kenzel Doe (pictured above) is No. 2 in the league with 11.6 yards a punt return. He's also fifth with 24.06 yards a kick return.

Advantage: Push

1. Trophy time — If the Badgers win today, they clinch at least a share of the Big Ten West Division title. If nothing else, Wisconsin has shown a knack for winning trophies (let's not forget the Heartland Trophy is up for grabs today, too). The Badgers have won seven straight trophy games dating back to a 20-10 loss to Iowa in 2009. As of midweek, there was no decision from Wisconsin whether or not it wanted a B1G West trophy at Kinnick, you know, just in case. If you're keeping score, it would be the second time in three seasons that an opponent has celebrated a division crown in Kinnick. Nebraska won the Legends Division with a 13-7 victory here in 2012. In this age of divisional play, you will see more trophies raised in Big Ten stadiums in late November. Of course, you want your team to do the raising. And ...

2 ... It's just not over for Iowa — You might've buried this team a couple of times this season, but the fact is, because of divisional play, the Hawkeyes are playing for their championship lives today. Of the 16 possible outcomes in the West Division the next two weeks, Iowa comes out the winner in three scenarios. None of those allows room for a loss, and, of course, the Hawkeyes need Minnesota to lose at some point. If you do the division, Iowa has an 18.7 percent chance in this, but you already know that this endeavor is much more physical than tossing dice. Still, what I'm saying is there's a chance.

3. Can Iowa get crazy — Not 'crazy' crazy, but can Ferentz and staff gameplan Iowa into a victory today? Remember last season's performance at Ohio State? The Hawkeyes stayed within themselves and broke out three-tight end sets that the Buckeyes didn't handle well and never really did totally figure out. Iowa showed balance — rushing for 130 yards and throwing for 245 yards, including an 85-yard TD to tight end Jake Duzey — with a gameplan that probably would've won in the NFL. If Iowa were the Jaguars and the Buckeyes were the Patriots, Iowa might've been able to sustain that scheme to a win. That won't help the defense. Is there something crazy that could slow Gordon? And, no, the Hawkeyes won't be allowed to use a net.

Advantage: Iowa

Iowa will win if ...

The running game can assert its will on Wisconsin's defense. That's the brilliant gameplan. Iowa needs to be as 'Iowa' as it can be. That means physical football that grinds clock and a defensive effort that frustrates Gordon.

Wisconsin will win if ...

The Badgers shut down Iowa's run and force the Hawkeyes into throw mode. That never works for Iowa and it won't suddenly work in game 11. If Iowa can't run, it's watching a football team get pinned for three hours.

Prediction: Wisconsin 35, Iowa 24