Fact Checker: Donald Trump claims he’s beating Ted Cruz in Iowa polls

Introduction

'I recognize that Donald is dismayed that his poll numbers are falling in Iowa.” - Texas Sen. Ted Cruz

'In Iowa now, as you know, Ted, in the last three polls, I am beating you, so you shouldn't misrepresent how you are doing with the polls.” - Donald Trump, businessman

Source of claim

An exchange between GOP candidates Cruz and Trump during the Jan. 14, 2016 Republican presidential debate on Fox Business Network.

Analysis

This Fact Checker will focus on the Trump part of the claim. The claim by Cruz is analyzed in a separate article posted on the Fact Checker website.

Trump hasn't been shy discussing his close eye on the polls since launching his campaign for president in June 2015, often including poll numbers as pillars of campaign speeches. As the campaign season intensifies, it's not surprising Cruz tried to thumb the eye on a topic sensitive to his rival.

But was Cruz right?

Let's see if Cruz or Trump has a better handle on their positions among likely voters. Conceivably, both candidates could be accurate: Trump's poll numbers could be falling in Iowa, yet he could still be beating Cruz in the last three polls.

This is a little tricky because polls cover different date ranges. It's also important to note that not all polls are created equally.

When contacted, Trump's camp cited the 'NBC News, Quinnipiac, Gravis, Public Policy Polling and others.” The Cruz team never responded.

The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll appears to be most recent having been released on Jan. 13, but it surveyed from Jan. 7-10, similar to three other polls. It showed Cruz leading Trump 25-22.

At the time of the debate, the most recently conducted was the Gravis poll conducted on Jan. 11-12, which found Trump leading Cruz, 34-28. The Public Policy poll conducted Jan. 8-10 showed Trump up 28-26. An American Research Group poll conducted Jan. 6-10 showed Trump up 29-25. A Quinnipiac poll conducted Jan. 5-10 showed Trump up 31-29.

The NBC News poll focused on opinions nationally, not Iowa.

The two candidates are statistically tied within the margin of error in the Register, Public Policy, American Research, and Quinnipiac polls. All of the aforementioned polls surveyed likely Republican caucusgoers.

Conclusion

Trump conveniently left out the Des Moines Register poll, which is among the most reputable for accuracy and shows him trailing slightly. The Register poll was released most recently, but it was conducted in the same time frame as three others showing Trump in the lead. All four are tied given the margin of error. The most recently conducted poll at the time of the debate, Gravis, shows Trump with a six percentage point lead.

Trump is generally right, but it is misleading to ignore the Register's poll. The Fact Checker scores Trump's claim an B

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Criteria

The Fact Checker team checks statements made by an Iowa political candidate/office holder or a national candidate/office holder about Iowa, or in advertisements that appear in our market. Claims must be independently verifiable. We give statements grades from A to F based on accuracy and context.

If you spot a claim you think needs checking, email us at factchecker@thegazette.com.

This Fact Checker was researched and written by B.A. Morelli.