Fact Checker: Is the U.S. debt as drastic as Ben Carson claims?

Introduction

In a graphic:

U.S. Debt: $18.4 trillion

Fiscal Gap: $213 trillion

With audio: 'At $10 million a day for 5,000 years it still won't be repaid.”

Source of claim: A campaign ad for Dr. Ben Carson, titled 'Why,” now airing on Iowa TV stations.

Analysis

Carson gives two specific numbers while explaining he wants to run as a Republican for president to address the nation's debt and spending.

The first figure given is the nation's debt of $18.4 trillion. For sourcing, the campaign directed us to the U.S. Department of Treasury's account of the debt, which lists the current U.S. debt at nearly $18.2 trillion. Although the amount of the national debt fluctuates, it has been about $200 billion less at least since July 1 than the figure Carson's ad claims. But as Carson campaign press secretary Deana Bass notes, it's 'certainly very, very close.”

That figure ties into the math Carson uses to highlight the scope of U.S. debt. A simple calculation shows $10 million a day for 5,000 years adds up to $18.25 trillion. That would not pay off the $18.4 trillion that Carson cited in the ad, but would pay off the actual debt of almost $18.2 trillion.

The more complicated figure he cites in his ad is the $213 trillion 'fiscal gap” Carson claims is in addition to the $18 trillion debt. This figure comes from a Boston University economics professor, Laurence Kotlikoff, who put the number at $210 trillion, $3 trillion less than Carson's figure.

Kotlikoff arrived at tis number by calculating the projected future expenditures minus the projected future revenues for the government into infinity. He describes it like the nation's credit card bill, accounting for everything the government has already agreed to spend in the future. He is part of a group of economists pushing for the 'Inform Act,” which would require the government to use this method in calculating the nation's debt, arguing it more accurately reflects the cost of that debt on future generations.

Critics argue counting that future debt is unfair because it does not account for the investment it represents. For example, the cost of the interstate highway system was passed on to future generations but has yielded significant economic benefits that help offset that cost. Those benefits are not factored into Kotlikoff's system.

Conclusion

Carson's statements are contextually accurate in showing that the nation has a high debt that future generations will have to bear. But his numbers are slightly off. It is a relatively small difference, but one that is worth noting for a candidate putting such an emphasis on fiscal responsibility. That's why he gets a B on these claims.

The Fact Checker team checks statements made by an Iowa political candidate/office holder or by a national candidate/office holder about Iowa, or in advertisements that appear in our local market. Claims must be independently verifiable. We give statements grades from A to F based on the accuracy and context.

If you spot a claim you think needs checking, email us at factchecker@sourcemedia.net.

' This Fact Checker was researched and reported by Adam Carros.