Points in Transition: Iowa vs. Nebraska preview

Save your 'Nebrasketball' jokes. Wins at Indiana and at Maryland — two teams that were getting conference title buzz not that long ago — put the Huskers' historical hoops legacy to bed, if at least for a bit. Right now, as 3-point favorites over Iowa, Nebraska is playing good basketball, and Iowa has to bring a much better representation of itself to Pinnacle Bank Arena on Thursday night at 8 p.m.

For each Big Ten game this season, we'll look at key players, strengths and weaknesses for both teams and the key to winning for both sides. Here's a breakdown of the matchup between Iowa and Nebraska:

Key player

Iowa: Jordan Bohannon, guard — Bohannon has impacted several games this season, but hasn't done what he did against Michigan in back-to-back games — at least when those back-to-backs were top-flight teams. He's going to have Glynn Watson as his assignment, which is going to be a chore on both ends. Watson is second on the team at 13.9 points per game, but also has 2.2 steals per game and a 4.2 steal percentage — which puts him 37th of all individuals in the nation. That will challenge Bohannon's assist-to-turnover ratio, to say the least, and if he doesn't meet that challenge, Iowa could find trouble getting in rhythm.

Nebraska: Tai Webster, guard — This could easily have been Watson, too, since the point guard is averaging 21.5 points in Nebraska's two Big Ten games, but Webster has been the guy for Nebraska all season. Oh, and while he's at 17.4 per game overall, he's at 19.5 per game so far in conference play. He also leads the team in assists while playing 86.2 percent of Nebraska's minutes. He draws fouls and gets to the line at a high rate, which will place an emphasis on Peter Jok staying out of trouble for the Hawkeyes.

Strengths

Iowa: The Hawkeyes' offense so far this season has been based mostly on letting the guys run a fluid motion that wasn't tied to a specific player or play. Coach Fran McCaffery has let the guys make plays initiated from a ball screen or drive and kick, coupled with exploiting transition — and it's worked out pretty well, and definitely more than it hasn't.

But Sunday against Michigan, Iowa got a lot from set actions and cuts, which — while already present, was less often used — is a potentially potent addition to an offense with plenty of weapons. There's always going to be a freestyle mode for the Hawkeyes, but knowing they can go to sets and feel confident in them is an important step.

Of course, all of that is predicated on shooters making shots and finishing at the rim — neither of which were done with much consistency at Purdue.

Nebraska: Nebraska's success in offensive rebounding — covered here, and below — was a topic for McCaffery this week, but the Huskers' defense is not to be ignored.

Nebraska ranks 52nd in the nation on KenPom.com in adjusted defense at 0.960 points per possession and 79th in defensive turnover percentage at 20.8 percent. And while opponents shoot the 3-pointer well against them, the Huskers protect the rim at a solid clip and force the ball out of the lane with effectiveness.

Guards play well in man and frontcourt players Ed Morrow Jr. (6-foot-7) and Michael Jacobson (6-foot-9) have played well against guys bigger than them. Both guys are ranked in the top 300 individuals nationally in block percentage, so Cordell Pemsl and Tyler Cook will have a challenge with the ball, even sized up similarly.

Weaknesses

Iowa: Nebraska only does a few things really well, and, as mentioned, one of them is in an area where Iowa has struggled mightily on more than one occasion.

Among Big Ten teams, none give up more offensive rebounds than the Iowa Hawkeyes. Through 15 games, Iowa has allowed teams to grab 191 total offensive boards (12.7 per game), nine more than the next closest in Minnesota. Given Nebraska is third in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding with 186 total (13.3 per game), strength meeting weakness could lead to a frustrating night for the Hawkeyes.

Positioning and anticipation are vital to defending overall, but also paramount in rebounding, so it makes sense Iowa has struggled with both, considering McCaffery's extensive comments on the subject. If Nebraska's offensive rebound number is 10 or less, either they're hitting all their shots or Iowa will be in a good position to win.

Nebraska: The Huskers rank 13th in the Big Ten in scoring offense (70.3 ppg), 14th in scoring margin (plus-1.7), 13th in field goal percentage (42 percent), 13th in 3-point shooting (31 percent), 13th in 3-point defense (37.3 percent), 14th in assists per game (11.4) and 14th in assist-to-turnover ratio (0.8).

That's, for the most part, a lot of offensive struggle overall this season. Their adjusted offense and tempo are middle of the road — 1.039 points per possession (158th) and 69.3 possessions per game (179th) — but their shooting has been woeful on more than one occasion. An effective field goal percentage of 45.8 has Nebraska 304th; its 30.6 percent shooting from 3-point range ranks 309th.

Offensive rebounding has masked that, especially to begin Big Ten play, but the Hawkeyes have thrived when opponents aren't hitting shots.

Iowa wins if …

shots fall early and the Hawkeyes find a man when the Huskers don't. McCaffery talked about withstanding runs in his teleconference as a key component to winning on the road. Well, if the Hawkeyes come out like they did at Purdue, no tides will be stemmed. If they don't rebound defensively, the runs can extend. The Hawkeyes are more talented individually at more than one position, but Thursday will be about the collective.

Nebraska wins if …

Iowa doesn't clean up the defensive glass and the Hawkeyes fall into quick-shooting like they did at Purdue. The Huskers have really good wins the last two times out and have gotten them, in part, on the strength of doing the dirty work when things got ugly. That's given a growing team and its coach a lot of confidence in what they're doing — a confidence that only will be bolstered by returning home for their conference home opener.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com