Points in Transition: Iowa vs. Rutgers preview

Iowa returns home Sunday to face a Rutgers team that, if just glancing at its record, had a nice non-conference. It would be hard to argue, though, the Hawkeyes' opponents at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Sunday are of the same caliber as Iowa's first three Big Ten matchups. Iowa is coming off two overtime games, but will be plenty motivated.

For each Big Ten game this season, we'll look at key players, strengths and weaknesses for both teams and the key to winning for both sides. Here's a breakdown of the matchup between Iowa and Rutgers:

Key player

Iowa: Isaiah Moss, guard — He was dealing with a stomach bug during the Nebraska game, which makes what he did in the first half even more impressive retroactively. But why he'll be a factor Sunday is because Peter Jok likely will face, as always, double and triple teams — more specifically Sunday because Rutgers will have to most possessions — and what Moss does with those open looks will be important.

Rutgers: Corey Sanders, guard — Sanders has been one of the only Rutgers players to perform with consistency so far in conference play and averages 10.9 points per game overall (12 per game in the three Big Ten contests). He'll likely have Moss defensively, and has a 3.2 steal percentage overall this season — a solid mark. He also fits the prototype for the kind of guard that has burned Iowa previously.

Strengths

Iowa: It got lost in Thursday's game, but the Hawkeyes crashed the boards like crazy against Nebraska — particularly on the offensive end.

The Hawkeyes had issues in that area previously this season, and the Huskers were a team that went in rebounding very well. Iowa won the rebound battle 51-42 and grabbed 17 offensive rebounds — with 27 second chance points compared to Nebraska's five. Before that game, Iowa had averaged just 11.5 offensive rebounds per game.

With an offense that can be potent anyway, adding offensive rebounding in particular could take the Hawkeyes to another level offensively. Continuing that trend Sunday could take the game from a likely comfortable win — at least if you pay attention to oddsmakers — to a blowout.

Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights haven't had a ton to hang their helmets (sorry, couldn't help it) on so far in conference play. If you look at their season as a whole, Rutgers has done well in a few areas.

Per KenPom.com Rutgers still is ranked ninth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 39 percent, 16th in 2-point shooting percentage at 42 percent, 25th in block percentage at 14.7, 29th in opponent effective field goal percentage at 45.0 and 88th in Adjusted Defense at 0.991 points per possession allowed. All of those come with a caveat that we'll get to in a bit.

If the Scarlet Knights have had anything to call their own so far, it's been defensively, and the full-season numbers say so. The issue is, the whole season hasn't been on the challenging end of the spectrum.

Weaknesses

Iowa: Let's talk about fouls.

This will never, ever be a space where officials are blamed for a team winning or losing, nor that officials have more of an impact on a given game than, you know, the players and coaches. That said, the way officials are calling a game and how players adjust to that on the fly is absolutely a factor.

The Hawkeyes, as young as they are, need to develop a better sense for that during games. Coach Fran McCaffery talks a lot about positioning and hand placement, but some officials call tighter than others, and how games are called can change late in games. Fouls on clearouts on rebounds — like against Nebraska — weren't the smartest plays the Hawkeyes have ever made. It's all a learning process, but getting to the line and not sending the opposing team there can be critical.

Rutgers: Let's talk about strength of schedule.

The Scarlet Knights had a nice record and stats in non-conference, as stated above. The devil is in the details, though, and Rutgers has shown that much since the conference season began. Led by Sanders, the Scarlet Knights started 11-1, but have lost four straight, including the first three Big Ten games. In those 11 wins, the 'best' win came against DePaul, which is ranked 182nd on KenPom, and they only played two other teams ranked higher than that — and lost to Miami and Seton Hall (36th and 55th on KenPom, respectively).

In three Big Ten games, Rutgers' Adjusted Offense is 0.788 points per possession, and Adjusted Defense is 1.119 ppp. That's a stark difference from their overall season marks. And about that offensive rebounding percentage, which still ranks highly overall? It's dropped from 39.0 to 33.3 percent in conference play.

Rutgers is improving, but still has a long way to go.

Iowa wins if …

shots aren't falling and Tyler Cook, Cordell Pemsl and Peter Jok are in foul trouble. The Hawkeyes are the better team, and if they have trouble on Sunday, there might be bigger problems than just being able to finish games or with their defensive principles.

Rutgers wins if …

Iowa plays like it did against Nebraska Omaha and Rutgers sees a sudden turnaround in efficiency on both ends of the floor. The Scarlet Knights have some fine individual players, but there's a reason they've lost by an average of 20.3 points per game so far in conference play.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com