The Big Analysis -- Michigan

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

The days of Michigan's defense being the Big Ten's foot wipe are over. The Wolverines went from the toothless and hapless Greg Robinson (more football lives than Jim Colletto) to Greg Mattison, who was coaxed from the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens to UM with a healthy salary of $750,000.

It's been worth every penny so far for first-year UM coach Brady Hoke.

Michigan is an entirely different outfit this year no matter the measure. A year after not being able to get stops of any kind, the Wolverines rank among the country's top-10 scoring defenses thanks largely to two things: Their ability to create turnovers (they are No. 1 in fumble recoveries), especially on strips in pursuit of ball carriers, and their effectiveness in short-yardage situations. Michigan has been remarkably good this year at getting off the field in three-and-outs (dear NCAA, let's make three-and-outs an official stat).

Youth is the major question mark with the Michigan. Blake Countess, 5-foot-10, 176 pounds, will be making his second start at cornerback. He's been, perhaps, Michigan's best corner, and that's saying something, with J.T. Floyd playing well. Countess is a star in the making - there's no way Hoke would have allowed a respected fifth-year senior like Troy Woolfolk to lose his job to just any true freshman.

Michigan also will start two freshmen linebackers in Jake Ryan (6-3, 230) and Desmond Morgan (6-1, 220). The Wolverines' biggest weakness has been in edge containment in the running game, so Iowa may have luck if it can stretch its offense and attack these outside linebackers.

Iowa's offense has developed a formidable trio in quarterback James Vandenberg, running back Marcus Coker and wide receiver Marvin McNutt.

Vandenberg is the No. 2 passer in the Big Ten and gaining on No. 1, Wisconsin's Russell Wilson. The junior has 17 TD passes and just four interceptions.

Vandenberg took his share of the blame for the three sacks last week that helped derail the Hawkeyes at Minnesota, but the Gophers picked up on tendency. In the postgame, Minnesota claimed that Vandenberg looks or throws to the side where a single tight end is lined up 60 percent of the time. That's more than enough percentage to send a safety or corner blitz Iowa's way with a reasonable chance of at least blowing up the play.

Coker continues to grow and get more comfortable as the go-to back, which, let's face it, was thrust on him awfully early in his career. His performance in the Insight Bowl (219 yards, MVP) set expectations somewhere between Shonn Greene and Ed Podolak. His 252 yards against the Gophers showed he's capable of breakout, but keep expectations tethered. That said, Coker will be the first Iowa back since Greene in 2008 to break 1,000 yards.

McNutt will be a matchup headache for Michigan's young, smallish secondary. McNutt has 858 receiving yards and trails only Illinois' A.J. Jenkins in the conference statistics. The last time an Iowa receiver weighed in on the conference lead in receiving yardage was Deven Harberts, when he led the Big Ten in conference games with 85.1 yards a game.

Advantage: Iowa

When the Wolverines have the ball

The Wolverines continue to take the nutty ride that is quarterback Denard Robinson. He remains the most electrifying player in the Big Ten, but this isn't the freelance Denard who finished second in the conference in rushing (by 4 yards) last season.

Michigan still uses the spread-option, but it no longer is the focal point of the offense, as it was under Rich Rodriguez. Still, new offensive coordinator Al Borges has used designed runs regularly, and Robinson's legs almost always are the fulcrum of the offense.

Conversely, Robinson is still inconsistent in the passing game. Against Michigan State, the Wolverines' running attack - Robinson and the tailbacks - were shut down with the Spartans loading the line of scrimmage. That forced Michigan to the air, where Robinson has been inaccurate this year. He is completing just more than half his passes (85 of 155 for 54.8 percent) and his 11 interceptions are tied for third-most in the country.

Ultimately, Robinson is an uplifting player. He seems to have an excellent attitude and seems to be able to roll with the punches. The 6-0, 195-pound junior has been allowed to play through his mistakes. But his struggles in the passing game show he's not a complete quarterback. Against Purdue last week, Robinson threw a pick right to a linebacker, and also, inexplicably, took a knee instead of taking a free shot downfield after the Boilermakers were drawn offsides. This is something Hoke has lived with, but will it keep Michigan from taking a spot among the Big Ten elite?

The Wolverines are No. 2 in the conference with 245.38 rushing yards per game. The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, are seventh in the Big Ten in rush defense with 163.63 yards a game. That's the most for an Iowa defense since 2000 and it remains Kirk Ferentz's No. 1 lament.

The linebackers are the same players in different spots this week. Senior Tyler Nielsen remains in the middle (where, as a 6-4, 235-pounder with good speed, he could work his way into the NFL), fighting through a broken hand that cost him the Indiana game. Sophomore James Morris moves from the middle and from outside linebacker (where he was last week) to the weakside. Sophomore Christian Kirksey, who's been the weakside linebacker all season, is now on the outside. The question is, will this be a week-to-week thing (probably) or is there any thought to permanence (who knows).

It's been five games since sophomore Tanner Miller has earned the starter spot at free safety. It's time for the two-deep communication and coverage between him and senior cornerback Shaun Prater to be tighter. These two are too good of players to not have that figured out.

Iowa's D-line should get back senior Tom Nardo from an ankle injury this week, but Ferentz said he's not going to save the front four. The 285-pounder can't hurt, but, again, as Ferentz said, the cavalry isn't coming here. Attrition has created a depth gap on the D-line that will take some time, and perhaps some junior-college recruits, to figure out.

Advantage: Michigan

Special teams

Special teams have been shaky this season. The Wolverines are much better this year in field goals, but still somewhat untested. Kicker Brendan Gibbons, who was just 1-of-5 last year (and Michigan was an NCAA-worst 4-of-14) is 6-of-8 this year, but he has a long of only 38 yards. On kickoff and punt teams (both return and coverage), Michigan has been middle-of-the-pack in the Big Ten. Punting has been a near even split between Matt Wile (41.1 yards a punt) and Will Hagerup (34.8).

The final words on last week's debacle of an onside kick that launched Minnesota's victory is "next play." That was the sentiment junior Jason White left reporters with on Tuesday. White was Iowa's lone line of defense in a perfectly executed onside kick that Minnesota recovered and eventually drove for the winning points. If that play leads to any change in coaching responsibility or to any change in the process, it will likely be undetectable.

With nearly every Iowa football game coming down to the final drive -- OK, not all, it just seems like it -- a missed 24-yard field goal is going to hurt. Mike Meyer missed a 24-yarder last week. Can't have that, not the way 2011 Iowa plays the game.

Advantage: Iowa

The Scoreboard

There's a lot to like about Iowa in this matchup. The Vandenberg-McNutt-Coker offense puts the Hawkeyes in the top three to five in the Big Ten, as long as the other team doesn't blitz. These three players have a chance to walk away with some all-time numbers this season, but what will they get out of it? Coker had 252 yards rushing in a loss last week. The numbers are empty unless the rest of the team, defense and special teams, gets on board. Where this game goes toward Michigan is the Wolverines' offense against the Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes just haven't put up a performance that says it can trade punches with a quarterback the caliber of Denard Robinson.

Michigan 35, Iowa 24