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2-Minute Drill: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Oct. 28, 2016 4:30 pm
Breaking down Iowa State (1-6, 0-4) vs. Kansas State (4-3, 2-2). Kickoff is 11 a.m. at Jack Trice Stadium (FSN).
ISU RUSH OFFENSE VS. KSU RUSH DEFENSE
The production from Iowa State's run game has been hit and miss. It has typically lived and died with how well the offensive line has been able to create room. Texas exposed the inexperience of the Cyclones' front five, and Kansas State has the power to do the same.
As the No. 1 rush defense in the Big 12, the Wildcats are the only league team that gives up an average of less than 100 yards on the ground (94.9). Defensive end Jordan Willis and linebacker Elijah Lee are prototypical Kansas State players who are sound. Willis leads the conference in sacks and tackles for loss.
Read more: Cyclones respect K-State's disciplined style of play
With five regular season games remaining, ISU running back Mike Warren needs 504 yards to eclipse the 1,000-yard threshold for the second season in a row. His three highest rushing games last year — Texas Tech, Kansas State and Kansas — are all still out there.
It's likely the Cyclones will try to find yards by any means necessary, and that could mean giving running back David Montgomery and quarterback Joel Lanning more looks.
Advantage: Kansas State
ISU PASS OFFENSE VS. KSU PASS DEFENSE
Kansas State owns the second-best total defense among Big 12 schools and the third-best scoring defense, but its passing numbers aren't as stingy as its rushing numbers.
The Wildcats give up 248.7 yards per game through the air and allow opposing quarterbacks to complete a league-high 66.7 percent of their passes. They typically bow up in the red zone and have allowed just five passing touchdowns in the red zone, but there are areas Iowa State can expose.
Part of what hurt Iowa State in its last game was how quickly the pocket collapses. Quarterbacks Joel Lanning and Jacob Park — who will continue to rotate duties — didn't have much more than 1.5 or 2 seconds to release their throws. Passing to the flat or receivers on quick slants might serve the Cyclones best, at least early on, to negate some of the pressure the offensive line will see. Then opportunities for deep shots will manifest.
Iowa State players preview the Kansas State game. October 26, 2016
Iowa State players preview the Kansas State game. #CyclONEnation pic.twitter.com/ZNhKQOYrk8
— Cyclone Football (@CycloneFB)
Wide receivers Allen Lazard and Deshaunte Jones have been steady targets for the most part, but Iowa State also will benefit from having Trever Ryen on the field. ISU Coach Matt Campbell said he expects Ryen to play after being hampered by an ankle injury in the last two games.
Advantage: Iowa State
KSU RUSH OFFENSE VS. ISU RUSH DEFENSE
Kansas State doesn't have a top-10 rusher in the Big 12 through its seven games this season, mostly because it gets ground production from a few different areas.
Quarterback Jesse Ertz has rushed for 75 yards or more three times this season, including a career-high 85 yards in a game shortened due to weather. He has a rushing touchdown in five games this season, including the last four and had two in a win against Texas. Running back Charles Jones is the primary ball carrier with 1,638 career rushing yards.
The Wildcats average 184 rushing yards, 4.7 yards per carry and have 16 touchdowns on the ground. At the same time, Iowa State has struggled to stop the run and gives up a Big 12-worst 231.7 rushing yards per game. Opponents have rushed 320 times against the Cyclones, the highest number among conference teams.
ISU linebackers Willie Harey, Kane Seeley and Reggan Northrup are the Cyclones' leading tacklers with 46, 40 and 39 stops respectively. But Iowa State must get a push up front to truly be disruptive in the running game. Jhaustin Thomas is playing inside with freshman JaQuan Bailey starting at Leo, but the defensive line — along with the offensive line — is one of the least deep positions on the roster.
Advantage: Kansas State
KSU PASS OFFENSE VS. ISU PASS DEFENSE
Kansas State is a relatively modest passing team, particularly when compared to other Big 12 squads, and has attempted the fewest passes in the conference.
The Wildcats are last in the league in passing efficiency (115.9) and passing offense (167.6 ypg), but do sprinkle in throws when the situation calls for it. Quarterback Jesse Ertz has tossed six scores and 927 yards this season with three picks. Dominique Heath — 26 catches, 312 yards and three touchdowns — is the primary receiver.
Iowa State has put an emphasis on shoring up its secondary and is the second-best passing defense in the league, giving up 229.1 yards per game. Safety Kamari Cotton-Moya (shoulder) is expected to play Saturday, which will give the secondary a boost of experience that it needs after the influx of newcomers in the offseason.
Advantage: Iowa State
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kansas State has prided itself on attention to detail, which is evidenced by special teams. The Wildcats are first in the Big 12 in kickoff returns (27.2 ypr) and third in punt return average (13.6 ypr) while ranking in the top half of the conference in punting, kickoff coverage, field goals and PAT kicking.
Iowa State has gotten consistent special teams play from kicker Cole Netten and punter Colin Downing. Netten made his first seven field goals of the season — including a school-record streak of 15 dating back to last season — before his first miss came on a 50-yard boot in the last game. Downing is averaging 39.2 yards per kick on 42 opportunities and has a long of 68 yards.
Read more: Netten leaving his mark in the ISU record books
Obviously teams will spend the majority of the game on offense or defense, but in this series, the game could certainly be decided on special teams with a mistake or big play tipping the scales.
Advantage: Push
INTANGIBLES
1. The series — Iowa State and Kansas State will meet for the 100th time Saturday and have played every season since 1917. The Cyclones lead the all-time series 49-46-4, but the Wildcats have won eight straight games in the series with the last ISU win coming on Nov. 3, 2007 (31-20).
2. Homecoming — Saturday will be Iowa State's homecoming. The Cyclones, who beat Texas 24-0 on homecoming last season, first played a homecoming football game in 1912. Iowa State has hosted a homecoming game ever since, except 1918 when it was canceled due to the Spanish Flu epidemic.
3. Snyder factor — Kansas State's Bill Snyder, who served as the offensive coordinator at Iowa from 1979-88, owns a 20-4 record against the Cyclones as the Wildcats coach. He has won all seven games against Iowa State since returning to the KSU sidelines in 2009.
Read more: ISU hopes to change one-sided recent history vs. K-State
3 AND OUT
1. Efficiency in the red zone — Kansas State and Iowa State are the two best red zone teams in the Big 12. KSU is 32-for-33 while ISU is 20-for-21. The Wildcats have converted 22 trips into touchdowns to the Cyclones' 14. Scoring in the red zone is important, but when Iowa State gets there it needs to come away with sixes.
2. Take care of the ball — Under Bill Snyder's direction, Kansas State has typically been a team that takes care of the ball. This year isn't much different. The Wildcats have a plus-4 turnover margin while the Cyclones have a minus-3 mark. It's always a key to take care of the ball, but against K-State, it's even more imperative.
3. Get off the field on third down — Kansas State converts its third down opportunities just 42.4 percent of the time while the ISU defense allows opponents to convert on 44 percent of its chances. Since Kansas State possess the ball for 30:35 on average, getting it off the field becomes a priority.
ISU WILL WIN IF ... It can own the running game. Get Mike Warren going early while slowing down Jesse Ertz and Charles Jones so the tempo of the game sways in Iowa State's favor.
KSU WILL WIN IF ... It can get consistent pressure on Iowa State's offensive line. As evidenced by the loss at Texas, the Cyclones offense gets stale in a hurry with heavy pressure. K-State would be wise to rush at least four — sometimes five or six — to create havoc in the ISU backfield.
PREDICTION: Kansas State 30, Iowa State 24
Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz, a Mediapolis native, looks to pass last week against Texas. (Scott Sewell/USA TODAY Sports)