Terps, Bucks remain the Big Ten women's basketball favorites

IOWA CITY — Big Ten women's basketball media day is a distant memory, and so are Lisa Bluder's initial picks in the conference race.

'I know I had Maryland and Ohio State in the top two,' said Bluder, coach at the University of Iowa. 'I don't remember who I had third.'

The Terrapins and the Buckeyes were the 1-2 picks by just about everybody. Maryland enjoyed enormous success in its first year in the league, compiling an 18-0 league record and following up with a tournament championship. Enough returned to make the Terrapins the pick to repeat in October, and nothing has changed since then.

Preseason player of the year Kelsey Mitchell, who led the league in scoring last year, returns to spearhead Ohio State's challenge.

After that? Well, it's complicated.

Iowa finished second last year, but program cornerstones Samantha Logic, Melissa Dixon and Bethany Doolittle have moved on. A title run might be a stretch, but a top-half finish and a ninth straight NCAA appearance range somewhere from 'possible' to 'likely.'

'We always have the goal to win the Big Ten, and that's not going to change,' said junior co-captain Ally Disterhoft. 'We want to be the best we can be.'

The Big Ten season begins Thursday for all 14 teams, including a key matchup at Columbus between Ohio State and Michigan State. The Hawkeyes open at Nebraska.

Here's one perspective on the race, from 1 through 14:

1. MARYLAND (Current record: 11-1; RPI: 57)

Overview: A spectacular Big Ten debut is in the books for Cedar Rapids native Brenda Frese and the Terrapins. They're the favorite again, and another perfect season is a possibility. Maryland absorbed its first loss Monday, but was competitive in an 83-73 loss to No. 1 Connecticut. Other than that, the schedule was ho-hum at best. On the other hand, Maryland leads the league in most team statistical categories.

Projected Big Ten record: 16-2, Big Ten tournament champion. Projected overall record: 30-3. Postseason: NCAA (No. 2 seed).

2. OHIO STATE (Current record: 8-3; RPI: 15)

Overview: The Buckeyes certainly didn't duck the heavyweights in the non-conference portion of their season; their losses came to No. 1 Conneticut, No. 2 South Carolina and No. 3 Notre Dame. Mitchell leads the league in scoring at 24.4 points per game. Definitely the biggest hurdle between Maryland and a repeat.

Projected Big Ten record: 14-4, Big Ten tournament runner-up. Projected overall record: 24-8. Postseason: NCAA (No. 4 seed).

3. RUTGERS (Current record: 9-3; RPI: 19)

Overview: The Scarlet Knights are far more efficient than flashy. They rank at the bottom of the Big Ten in scoring (a very modest 61.2 points per game), but make up for it with their typical suffocating defense.

Projected Big Ten record: 13-5, Big Ten tournament semifinalist. Projected overall record: 23-9. Postseason: NCAA (No. 5 seed).

4. MICHIGAN STATE (Current record: 9-2; RPI: 23)

Overview: Spartans are one of the more physical teams in the league, and thus one of the top rebounding outfits. Their trip to Columbus on Thursday is the top encounter on opening day.

Projected Big Ten record: 12-6, Big Ten tournament semifinalist. Projected overall record: 22-9. Postseason: NCAA (No. 6 seed).

5. NORTHWESTERN (Current record: 11-1; RPI: 76)

Overview: This is the league's top academic school, and the Wildcats play smart — they lead the Big Ten in steals (12.8 per game), turnover margin (plus-10.3) and assist-to-turnover rate (1.7). Nia Coffey is the Big Ten's lone player to average a double-double. 'Cats could finish as high as third.

Projected Big Ten record: 11-7, Big Ten tournament quarterfinalist. Projected overall record: 23-9. Postseason: NCAA (No. 7 seed).

6. NEBRASKA (Current record: 9-2; RPI: 89)

Overview: This seemed destined to be the year the Huskers slid. But the return of Rachel Theriot and the emergence of freshman post Jessica Shepard should put Nebraska in the upper half once again.

Projected Big Ten record: 11-7, Big Ten tournament quarterfinalist. Projected overall record: 21-10. Postseason: NCAA (No. 9 seed).

7. IOWA (Current record: 10-2; RPI: 26)

Overview: Hawkeyes' first four Big Ten games are a beast, starting at Nebraska on Thursday. Assuming their shooting rate approaches its usual rate, they'll be back in the NCAA for a league-leading ninth consecutive year.

Projected Big Ten record: 10-8, Big Ten tournament quarterfinalist. Projected overall record: 21-11. Postseason: NCAA (No. 9 seed).

8. PURDUE (Current record: 9-2; RPI: 31)

Overview: The Boilermakers will be stingy (they lead the Big Ten in scoring defense at 51.6 ppg), and they'll be tough at home. If they can get to .500 in the Big Ten, an NCAA berth is possible.

Projected Big Ten record: 8-10, Big Ten tournament quarterfinalist. Projected overall record: 18-13. Postseason: WNIT.

9. MINNESOTA (Current record: 8-3; RPI: 105)

Overview: Had Amanda Zahui B. stuck around, Gophers would have been a championship contender. As it is, they'll be a headache for opponents. Rachel Banham is averaging 23.1 points per game in her post-ACL surgery season.

Projected Big Ten record: 8-10, Big Ten tournament second round. Projected overall record: 16-14. Postseason: WNIT.

10. MICHIGAN (Current record: 8-3; RPI: 80)

Overview: Seems the Wolverines are always in the middle of the pack. A break here or there, and they could make an NCAA push.

Projected Big Ten record: 8-10, Big Ten tournament second round. Projected overall record: 16-14. Postseason: WNIT.

11. ILLINOIS (Current record: 7-4; RPI: 68)

Overview: There are some pieces here, but not much sizzle — or support. Average home attendance of 1,289 is last in the league.

Projected Big Ten record: 5-13, Big Ten tournament second round. Projected overall record: 13-18. Postseason: None.

12. INDIANA (Current record: 8-4; RPI: 88)

Overview: At 19.6 points per game, Tyra Buss ranks fourth in the league in scoring. Not enough around her to make a postseason push.

Projected Big Ten record: 5-13, Big Ten tournament second round. Projected overall record: 14-18. Postseason: None.

13. WISCONSIN (Current record: 4-6; RPI: 136)

Overview: Badgers are the only team to be outscored in the non-conference portion of their schedule.

Projected Big Ten record: 3-15, Big Ten tournament first round. Projected overall record: 7-22. Postseason: None.

14. PENN STATE (Current record: 5-6; RPI: 169)

Overview: A perennial Big Ten contender, the Lady Lions fell hard last year. Judging by pre-Big Ten results, they haven't yet gotten up.

Projected Big Ten record: 2-16, Big Ten tournament first round. Projected overall record: 7-23. Postseason: None.

l Comments: (319) 368-8857; jeff.linder@thegazette.com