ChetChase 2010 - Primary Eve

It won't be long now until we know exactly who will be chasing Chet for the next five months.

But I read in The Des Moines Register over the weekend that Tuesday's Republican gubernatorial primary is already over. Rats. Spoiler alert.

According to the Iowa Poll (Since 1943!) former Gov. Terry Branstad leads Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts by roughly a gazillion percent. Actually, the once and future governor received 57 percent to 29 percent for Vander Plaats and 8 percent for Roberts.

And it turns out (gasp, shock) that a large number of Iowa Republicans polled actually want to win in November and govern the state. I had thought the whole thing was about winning a coveted regular slot on Steve Deace's WHO radio show and an autographed picture of Bill Salier. Man, was I wrong:

Almost 70 percent of primary voters see Branstad as best able to beat Culver, who was elected in 2006 but whose approval has declined steadily over the past year and dipped below 40 percent last winter. Only 17 percent said Vander Plaats was the best able to beat Culver, and 5 percent named Roberts.

Republican Colleen Dennis of Sioux City said she supports Branstad, but not because his ideas are vastly different from those of Vander Plaats or Roberts.

“It's not so much that I think he is the only one with good ideas. But I am looking for someone who can beat Chet Culver. And I don't think either of the other two can,” said Dennis, who is 61 and works on her family's acreage. “That may not be the best reason to support someone. I just think he can raise the money and is better known.”

Colleen, obviously, has been hypnotized by Doug Gross.

It was Gross, you may remember, who caught so much fire and brimstone from the righteous right for suggesting last year that a Republican candidate with wider appeal would have a better shot at winning by emphasizing pocketbook issues  instead of  all marriage-marriage-marriage. Critics of  the longtime strategist and one-time guv nominee said that's squishy establishment loser talk. To the ramparts!

It's now looking like pretty good advice.

"He's a broad-based Republican candidate, and we don't have a lot of those," Gross said of Branstad last week before the DMR poll hit the streets.

"(Vander Plaats) has been tagged as sort of a one-issue candidate, and I think that's limited the extent that Bob's numbers can move up," Gross said.

Vander Plaats got 31 percent of the GOP primary vote in 2002. And, as the polls show, that's about where he is now.

Feeling vindicated? Just a little?

"No," Gross said. "I'd like to see Republicans win and I hope we do. I'm not looking for credit."

So modest.

But, say, what if there's a surprise Tuesday? What if, like in 2002, Vander Plaats' polling is way off the mark and a Dutch wave brings a historic upset?

It could happen, I guess. Barack Obama was supposed to win the New Hampshire Primary in 2008 by 15 points, according to polls, and he ended up losing in a Hillaryslide. So polling ain't always all that.

Unlike Hillary, Vander Plaats has yet to become verklempt in the closing moments. You simply do not do that around Chuck Norris.

The Register poll shows Branstad's support at a higher level than two previous surveys by Public Policy Polling (A Democratic outfit) and KCCI-TV. They had Branstad in the more vulnerable 40s.

So I think it's still worth watching the returns roll in. You never know. Although you kinda do.

If I had to predict, which I don't, but I will, I think Branstad gets about 52 percent with Vander Plaats in the mid 30s and Roberts somewhere around 10.

What's your prediction?