Happy Lose-a-Seat Day, Iowa

Well, it's official, Iowa will lose one of its five congressional seats in the next round of redistricting. Cursed Census.

It's a dark day, literally. Shortest period of daylight all year. But we're not alone. We're joined by fellow losers Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Hey there Rust Belt, tough break. Buy you a drink?

There have been a lot of takes out there in recent days. A sampling:

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight/NY Times:

Iowa (-1 seat) Most of Iowa's population loss is concentrated in the western portion of the state, which is also the strongest region for Republicans. That could make Steve King, the Republican incumbent in the 5th district, especially vulnerable (Democrats narrowly held on to a majority in the state senate, so they have a say in redistricting). All four of Iowa's remaining districts should be highly competitive.

Krusty Konservative says, we've still got two senior senators working for us, and that ain't bad:

Come on folks, we knew this day was coming. I laughed out loud at the Register's story about how we used to have 11 congressional districts. Lets not forget that nobody lived in California in 1910. For those who are worried about the state losing our clout, we still have two of most senior senators in the Senate.

The Register laments lost clout:

Even in a potential coming era of austerity, losing a seat reduces by one the number of voices advocating specifically for Iowa-friendly policies and money and adds one voice somewhere else, scholars looking at the changing map say.The smaller federal delegation also means the loss of a presidential electoral vote.The state's balanced partisan profile will help it remain a White House general election battleground. But Iowa's out-sized influence in presidential politics will tip even more toward the front end of the presidential campaign cycle - relying on its coveted place as the leadoff caucus state, observers say.

The smaller federal delegation also means the loss of a presidential electoral vote.

The state's balanced partisan profile will help it remain a White House general election battleground. But Iowa's out-sized influence in presidential politics will tip even more toward the front end of the presidential campaign cycle - relying on its coveted place as the leadoff caucus state, observers say.

It's a long trend, so get used to it, says The Gazette:

For Iowa, it's the continuation of a long trend. Four representatives will be twice as many as Iowa had when it became a state in 1846. It's half as many as it had 50 years ago and roughly a third the members of the House at its peak in 1910.Although no state wants to see its House delegation decrease, the practical impact will be negligible, according to Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University.“It's not like Iowa swings a lot of weight in the House,” Goldford said.

Although no state wants to see its House delegation decrease, the practical impact will be negligible, according to Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University.

“It's not like Iowa swings a lot of weight in the House,” Goldford said.

John Deeth skillfully explains what's next as Iowa redraws its political map:

Iowa's process is often cited as a national model: The LSB (Legislative Service Bureau, now Legislative Services Agency) draws The Map in secret, and supposedly they have no idea where any incumbent lives or the partisan lean of any place. It's hard for me to imagine that combination: the skill set to balance population and geography, combined with the complete ignorance of the underlying politics. In my experience, anyone smart enough to grasp The Map is also political enough to understand The Implications. Maybe that's just the crowd I run with.Once The Map is released, legislators get just an up or down vote and the governor signs or vetoes. Not until three plans have been rejected -- which hasn't happened in the three cycles we've done it this way -- do the politicians get to directly tweak the map.Yet there's no way to completely remove politics from a process so inherently political. The state legislative map is a zero sum game. There are individual winners and losers, but we come out with the same 100 House seats and 50 Senate seats.The congressional map, this time, is another matter. We lose one of our musical chairs, and one of our five congressmen (all men, still, just us and Mississippi...) will try to sit down and land on his rump.My experience, from watching two of these districting cycles, is that things don't break out along the usual lines. It's not a simple donkey vs. elephant fight. It's an urban vs. rural fight and a What's In It For Me fight.

Once The Map is released, legislators get just an up or down vote and the governor signs or vetoes. Not until three plans have been rejected -- which hasn't happened in the three cycles we've done it this way -- do the politicians get to directly tweak the map.

Yet there's no way to completely remove politics from a process so inherently political. The state legislative map is a zero sum game. There are individual winners and losers, but we come out with the same 100 House seats and 50 Senate seats.

The congressional map, this time, is another matter. We lose one of our musical chairs, and one of our five congressmen (all men, still, just us and Mississippi...) will try to sit down and land on his rump.

My experience, from watching two of these districting cycles, is that things don't break out along the usual lines. It's not a simple donkey vs. elephant fight. It's an urban vs. rural fight and a What's In It For Me fight.

I'm not getting too worked up over losing a seat. I'm more bummed by yet another reminder that, despite all the big ideas that have been deployed with much ado by our leaders over the years, slow/stagnant growth is still sapping Iowa's mojo.

Hey, maybe there's still time to eliminate income taxes for Iowans under 30. Just joshin.'

I'm anxious to see what the Branstad administration's next development strategy looks like. After all, this is a big reason he got elected.

Anxious, but not optimistic. I sorta, kinda  remember that TB already had a lengthy shot at this one. But, hey, I love "pigs, poker and prisons" as much as the next guy. (That was the old joke about Branstad's economic development priorities)

On the bright side, we'll get to witness one of the my favorite moments of political theater - map day in the Iowa Legislature. Each senator and rep. opens that big envelope from the Legislative Service Agency (maybe it will be an e-mail attachment now, or a tweet. Progress!) and finds his or her political destiny starkly spelled out in those freshly drawn lines. There is confusion. There is angst. There is ecstasy. Human drama, in the Statehouse of all places.

And really, is four so bad? There's the Final Four and the Frozen Four. There's the Fantastic Four, the Four Tops, four Beatles, 4-H and the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. OK, scratch the last one.

You can click the map above to see Iowa's congressional map through the decades.