Political momentum building for 2010 state elections

DES MOINES - Iowa's political landscape is proving to be a fiercely competitive expanse of shifting sands leading to the 2010 voting booth.

Republican Party leaders say their polling data tells them public sentiment - in a state that bounces between red and blue - is tilting their direction in an off-presidential year that traditionally favors the party out of power.

Democrats, who control power in Washington and Des Moines, point to their narrow victory in retaining a state House seat in southeast Iowa last week - one Republicans had hoped to win - as evidence that their message continues to resonate with Iowans.

“I think a lot of this talk by my good friends in the Republican Party about the earth shifting and stuff is more hope than realism,” Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, said.

However, Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford said he sees that Republicans are somewhat energized and Democrats, at least temporarily, have been put back on their heels by national hard-line conservatives who have fanned worries over social change and economic uncertainty.

“Change is threatening to people,” he said, especially in “a rotten economy where they're worried about holding onto their jobs and holding onto their health care.”

Doug Gross, a Des Moines lawyer and the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2002, said he perceives political climate change rooted in concerns over the direction of both federal and state government in taxes, spending and debt. He doubts Democrats will sway from their current agenda.

“The electoral climate is better than it was,” he said. “I think it's a much more competitive state than it was six months ago. It's a much more receptive climate than it's been in a long time.”

However, Iowa Democrats still hold a better than 100,000 edge in voter registrations. They also have the advantage of an incumbent governor atop their 2010 ticket in a state where voters rarely oust a sitting governor and where Republicans face a hotly contested, potentially divisive primary.

Looking ahead

Despite the loss of the state House District 90 seat last week by 107 votes, House GOP Leader Kraig Paulsen of Hiawatha said he came away with some positives. For one thing, Republicans closed a sizable registration disadvantage by turning out a higher percentage of their voters than Democrats.

“There was a lot of energy, a lot of energy that I haven't seen among Republicans for a while,” Paulsen said. “I think there are a lot of things to be excited about, it's just the outcome isn't one of them.”

Democratic strategist Jeff Link said the House 90 contest was like a “special election on steroids.” It had outside groups from both sides of the same-sex marriage issue actively engaged, and Republicans “hyping” the race as a “game changer” for what was to come in 2010 - before getting out-organized.

“The reason I believe we win these races is because we recruit a good local candidate, talk about local issues and run a great local campaign,” Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Michael Kiernan said. “They want to drive a message of negativity, divisiveness and hate. They've tried to do that with the gay marriage issue.

“Their approach was to make this a referendum on the governor, to demonize him and to run misleading attacks. We're happy with the outcome. We know this was a good review of our campaign organization and infrastructure and how we work as a team as we're going into 2010.”

Paulsen said it was another example of Democrats' succeeding by co-opting Republicans' conservative message.

Goldford, the Drake political scientist, said the House 90 gave the winning side bragging rights but carried little more significance.

Branstad's impact

Much of the political focus now shifts to the Republican primary. A crowded field is assembling against a backdrop of intraparty squabbling and a Brett Favre-like story line is percolating over the possibility former four-term Gov. Terry Branstad will come out of retirement to seek the GOP nomination.

“The issue is: Do the people within the warring factions want to unite?” said former state lawmaker Sandy Greiner, a Keota Republican who organized a Draft Branstad PAC last week. “I have confidence that the governor would do everything he could to bring people together, but, in the end, it has to be the people who have to be willing to come together. That will tell the tale.”

If Branstad decides to re-enter politics since ending his fourth term in 1999, Link said he may be in for a “big surprise” - he may be attacked from the right.

Link said he expected the coming months would produce some good political theater, but the 2010 race will galvanize the day after the June 8, 2010, primary for a general election that likely will focus on economic issues.

Gross agreed, saying the marriage issue will be much more powerful in the GOP primary.

“But in a general election, that's not going to carry the day,” he said. “In a general election, the issues that are going to determine the outcome are going to be economic issues.”