Control of Iowa Senate a key 2016 election battle

DES MOINES - Republicans are hoping the third time is the charm as they assemble a slate of candidates for this year's elections aimed at retaking control of the Iowa Senate and breaking a 26-24 majority grip that Democrats held for the past six legislative sessions.

But Democrats say they like their chances at the close Friday of the 2016 filing period of thwarting another GOP effort to have full control of the Statehouse and give six-term Gov. Terry Branstad his first Republican Legislature since the 1997-98 biennium.

Still, 'I think the prospects are very bright,” said Senate GOP leader Bill Dix of Shell Rock, who has 13 incumbents seeking re-election and has recruited challengers in 12 districts currently in Democratic control.

Voter registrations among Republicans are on the rise, he said, after a caucus cycle that attracted 17 GOP presidential candidates to Iowa and electors are looking to shake up the status quo - a mood he hopes carries to a legislative chamber in Democrats' hands since 2007.

'With good candidates and the attitudes of voters that it's time for a change, we're very optimistic that 2016 could be a positive outcome for Republicans,” Dix said.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, shrugged off GOP election spin, saying the change message may cut the other way at a Statehouse where Republicans hold sway in the Iowa House by a 57-43 margin and Branstad has increasingly taken unilateral action to close state institutions and privatize Medicaid services.

Gronstal said he believes Democrats support for bolstering education, championing the middle class and protecting Iowa's health care delivery system will play well. But legislative outcomes come down to candidate recruitment and grass roots efforts in races historically decided by fewer than 5,000 votes statewide.

'It's harder for Republicans in a presidential year when turnout is higher,” said Gronstal, who has three Republicans vying to challenge him in his Council Bluffs district. 'I think we've got great candidates out there and that is mostly what this is about. It is typically six or eight key races (that decide Senate control) and, at this point in the process, you don't know which ones are key.”

Sen. Dick Dearden, D-Des Moines, is the only incumbent senator not filing to run again in a race where his daughter is one of two candidates seeking to replace him. Republicans fielded candidates in 23 of the 25 seats to be contested in 2016, while Democrats have candidates in 18 districts.

On the Iowa House side, House Speaker Linda Upmeyer, R-Clear Lake, said 49 out of 57 GOP incumbents are seeking re-election - the most in at least a decade.

'In addition, we've had a great recruiting year,” she said. 'I think we've got a great opportunity to grow our majority. I'm super excited about our team this year.”

House Democratic leader Mark Smith of Marshalltown was every bit as excited as he looks at those eight GOP retirements. Four of those districts were carried by President Barack Obama in 2012, he noted. That year, House Democrats picked up seven seats. A seven-seat gain this year would create a 50-50 tie in the House.

'But when you add Republicans' disastrous policies on education, Medicaid, mental health and closing the mental health institutes, it looks even better for us,” Smith said.

Among the places he hopes to pick up seats are in House 95, which includes parts of northern and eastern Linn County and southern Buchanan County. Retired school administrator Richard Whitehead, a Democrat, faces Republican Louis Zumbach.

He also hopes to defeat GOP incumbents in House 60, a Cedar Falls-Waterloo district where Gary Kroeger will challenge GOP Rep. Walt Rogers, and House 92 in Scott County where Ken Krumwiede will challenge Rep. Ross Paustian.

This year's slate of legislative candidates included two returning entries: former House member Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine, challenging incumbent Sen. Chris Brase, D-Muscatine, in Senate District 46, and Anamosa Republican Andy McKean - who previously served in both the House and Senate - involved in a three-way primary to succeed retiring Rep. Brian Moore, R-Bellevue, in House District 58.

Partisan groups inside and outside Iowa have targeted Iowa's Senate races in 2016, but Gronstal said a significant flow of outside money four years ago failed to knock Democrats out of control.

Branstad told a GOP prayer breakfast at the start of this year's legislative session his party has the strongest slate of Senate candidates it has ever had to go along with having Iowa's record-holding vote-getter Sen. Chuck Grassley at the top of the 2016 ballot.

'That's good news for all of you because Chuck Grassley wins and he wins big,” Branstad told the GOP legislators in attendance. 'If I were the Senate majority leader, I'd be shaking in my boots because he can see the tidal wave coming his way.”

Pointing to Grassley is akin to 'whistling in the cemetery” for Iowa Republicans nervous about how their presidential nominating process will play out, Gronstal noted, but he downplayed 'idle speculation.”

'It doesn't really depend on the top of the ticket,” he said. 'It depends on recruiting good candidates and running good campaigns at the grass roots level and I'd say most history suggests Democrats are superior at that - in particular in presidential years.”

If a political party has no candidate on the ballot after the June 7 primary, it may select a nominee at a legislative district convention.

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