Iowa straw poll's wild cards

DES MOINES - Saturday's straw poll in Ames is as much about who isn't directly competing as the half-dozen candidates who are investing time, money and organization.

Political observers believe this early test is shaping up to be a three-way race among Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

The wild cards will be a write-in campaign for Texas Gov. Rick Perry - not yet an announced candidate but possibly on Saturday - or a stealth campaign by 2007 straw poll winner and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“We've got no real expectation,” said Craig Schoenfeld, Iowa director of the California-based Americans for Rick Perry, which is spearheading a write-in effort on behalf of the Texas governor. “The straw poll is a candidate-driven event, and we have no candidate and there's no campaign.

“We don't have Randy Travis, we don't have a barbecue, we're not giving away peach jam,” Schoenfeld added in reference to other candidate activities designed to garner the attention of the throngs expected at the carnivallike atmosphere of the GOP pep rally and fundraiser.

Perry will be in South Carolina on Saturday, where he reportedly will discuss his presidential plans, but will follow that with an appearance at a GOP fundraising event Sunday in Waterloo.

Bachmann, Pawlenty, Paul, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, business executive Herman Cain of Georgia and Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter have reserved space at the Hilton Coliseum and are guaranteed slots on the ballot.

Iowa GOP officials have agreed to include Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman on the ballot and to provide a write-in option for unannounced Republicans like Perry and Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee.

“It's wide open. Every candidate has something to prove going into Saturday,” said GOP operative Tim Albrecht, currently Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's press secretary. He worked for Romney's Iowa campaign four years ago. “It's very much up in the air as to who will do well, but there's no question that multiple candidates need to do well.”

Albrecht said it will be interesting to see whether Perry can top the 203 votes that Fred Thompson polled in 2007. Thompson was in a similar unannounced-but-likely-to-run position.

Observers are also watching how Perry fares against Romney, who is not competing in the straw poll and is waging a low-profile campaign in Iowa. Romney will participate in an Iowa GOP/Fox News debate Thursday, however. He will launch his 2012 bid in earnest in New Hampshire's kickoff primary.

“If you think you're not going to do well, it's much better to stay out,” said political scientist Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “... The downside is you never want to look like a loser, particular if you're the front-runner. Coming in seventh or eighth, that would be embarrassing.

“There's no upside for (Romney) because the Iowa caucus electorate is not friendly to him. Once burned, twice shy,” Sabato said. “I guess he could play Charlie Brown and let Lucy tee up the ball again, but why would he?”

Albrecht said it's difficult to get supporters to show up in Ames from the far corners of Iowa, if campaigns aren't paying the $30 admission or providing food and transportation. He said Romney can run a “been there, won that strategy” with this straw poll that he couldn't four years ago.

“They'll be watching from afar, but they'll be watching closely to see how this shakes out,” he said.

Effects of the poll

Sabato said Perry has the perfect out because he can deny any knowledge of a write-in effort and say he doesn't support it or want it because he hasn't decided whether he'll run.

“If he actually does well, he can say, ‘My God, look at that, and we didn't do anything.' So you can't lose on that one,” Sabato said.

Des Moines lawyer Doug Gross, a GOP activist and 2002 gubernatorial candidate, said Perry's entry into the race likely would force Romney to compete more actively in Iowa than he would otherwise anticipate. “If Perry could win here, it would really hurt Romney's momentum,” he said.

Richard Schwarm, a former Iowa GOP chairman from Lake Mills, said it is unprecedented that Perry and Palin could still have a chance of winning the nomination. He believes social networking could enable candidates who make a poor showing to stay in the race, too.

“(The straw poll has) always had a winnowing effect. It's going to be interesting to see if it has the same effect, but it's certainly going to boost three candidates,” Schwarm said.

Sabato expects the straw poll outcome to be the beginning of the end for some 2012 campaigns.

“Some of those lower tier candidates will not survive bad showings in Ames. They just won't. Money will dry up, and some staffers will find reasons to move elsewhere or find other things to do. So it could be devastating for some who really finish poorly,” he said.

Straw poll success is no guarantee, either.

“Straw polls have a short shelf life,” said Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader and a former GOP candidate for Iowa governor. “You have to have a caucus strategy if you want to be president of the United States.”

Vander Plaats helped former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee engineer a surprise second-place finish in the 2007 Ames straw poll. “Our next event was in Clinton, Iowa, probably two weeks later,” Vander Plaats said. “We had two people show up.”

Comments: (515) 243-7220; rod.boshart@sourcemedia.net

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