GOP primary will determine party direction

Picture a graying Goliath returning to the political battlefield to face a pair of would-be Davids, and you've summed up Iowa Republicans' three-way fight for governor this year.

Terry Branstad, 63, who was the state's youngest and longest-serving chief executive as Iowa's 39th governor, is out to make history again. His comeback bid could make him only the second governor to return to the office after a 12-year hiatus.

Standing in his way are two northwest Iowa Republicans - five-term state Rep. Rod Roberts, 52, of Carroll, on his first foray into gubernatorial politics, and Bob Vander Plaats, 47, a Sioux City businessman hoping to capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiment in his third try.

The three will face off in the June 8 primary election, with the winning candidate who receives at least 35 percent of the vote earning the right to carry the Republican banner against Democratic Gov. Chet Culver in the November general election.

All three are critical of Culver's handling of the affairs of state during his first term, and have proposed a directional shift to a pro-growth, pro-business approach that would mean lower taxes and less government, with variations on how to achieve that end.

Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford said the 2010 GOP primary is a clash between centrist, business-oriented conservatives and the party's populist social and religious conservative wing.

“It's a fight over the direction of the Iowa Republican Party. It's a reckoning,” he said.

Goldford said it appears to be a race that Branstad should win, but he noted that Branstad is the establishment candidate in a year “in which the establishment is quaking,” and that poses a major cause for worry.

The clearest evidence of the Republican shift in Iowa is that fact that Branstad has had to re-establish his conservative credentials after a 12-year absence from politics, he noted.

“That shows you where the party's moved, if Branstad is seen by some Republicans as moderate, because for 16 years he was seen as a conservative governor,” Goldford said.

Branstad launched his comeback by hopping aboard a campaign RV and traveling Iowa to tout his vision. However, much of the attention for others has been a rearview look at his political past, with attacks coming from left and right.

“People are real concerned about where things are, and they're looking for somebody they know they can trust to get things back on track,” said Branstad, who characterized himself as a consistent conservative.

“I have a clear vision for the future. I have laid out a very ambitious goal of what I want to accomplish,” he added.

While Branstad is assembling the band for another four-year gig at Terrace Hill, Vander Plaats isn't convinced it's playing well, noting some Iowans are sounding sour notes over tax and spending decisions in Branstad's previous 16-year play list as governor.

Branstad has been the biggest money draw among GOP contributors. He has amassed nearly $3.2 million since mid-October.

Vander Plaats noted the perceived front-runner's poll ratings have slipped, despite having spent $2 million and having a huge name-identification edge in the 2010 race.

“I think people do understand his record. I think they're having a problem with the liberal nature of that record (on social and fiscal issues),” said Vander Plaats, the GOP lieutenant governor nominee in 2006. “I think they're saying, ‘That's not the record I'm looking for.' Plus, I don't think anybody needs to be governor for 20 years today.”

Tensions have flared between Branstad and Vander Plaats as the campaign has unfolded, while Roberts says his “happy warrior” approach to staying on the political high road has paid dividends. He started as the least known among the GOP trio.

Roberts has brought the mild-mannered, principled approach he exercised for a decade in the Legislature to his first statewide campaign, saying he would carry a Ronald Reagan-style appeal to independents and disaffected Democrats in building a coalition with broad consensus to govern.

“People are very open to someone new,” said Roberts, an ordained minister who says the 2010 governor's race is about restoring Iowans' confidence in a competent, efficient state government that is responsive to citizens' needs.

“This election isn't about the past. Iowans are looking for new leadership with a new approach,” Roberts said. “I honestly believe this thing is wide open. I think it's close. There could be some surprises on June 8; that's what I think.”

Branstad has drawn flack from social conservatives who don't believe he did enough to protect marriage and life as governor and too much to expand gambling. They also criticize him for his former lieutenant governor, Joy Corning, who since has associated herself with a group supporting gay rights in Iowa and for endorsing Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson after leaving the public arena in January 1999.

Branstad also has taken hits from a 527 group organized by Democratic activists that has paid for mailers and advertisements targeting potential primary voters with attacks on Branstad's conservative credentials.

The attacks are evidence Democrats fear a Branstad-Culver general election matchup, Branstad said, because they're spending hundreds of thousands of dollars “hoping they can damage me in the primary.”

“I'm a very competitive person,” he said. “I'm going to give it everything I've got. I've never been outworked. I've been through 10 contested elections before. I don't intend to lose.”

Vander Plaats contends Culver's only chance at getting re-elected is if GOP primary voters give him a candidate with a political record.

“This environment is tailor-made for my candidacy,” he said. “The grass roots out here doesn't want politics as usual. They definitely don't want political establishment. They don't want years of political experience. They want real-life leadership today, and I believe that's what I have the opportunity to offer them.”