Is comeback mountain for Culver too high to climb?

DES MOINES - Chet Culver has made strides in his uphill struggle to catch campaign-savvy Terry Branstad, but political experts question whether months of economic challenges, political baggage and a surly voter mood are making that comeback mountain too high to climb by Tuesday's election.

This year's clash of governors past and present – Culver, 44, a first-term Democrat and Branstad, 63, a Republican who previously served at Terrace Hill from 1983 to 1999 – has been a bruising, negative affair that Branstad hopes to lead from wire to wire while Culver is feverishly trying to deliver a late-round knockout.

“I think they've certainly put some champagne on ice, but it's getting warm,” Culver said in hoping to hang onto his title as governor and deliver Branstad his first political defeat.

Donn Stanley, Culver's campaign manager, said his candidate has been closing the gap in a very fluid election cycle where Iowa is running counter to anti-incumbent trends nationally with Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, and all five members of the state's congressional delegation leading in their respective races.

But the Branstad camp and political scientists in Iowa who have followed the governor's race believe Tuesday night will trigger a Republican celebration.

“My expectation is that Branstad is going to win pretty handily,” said Dave Peterson, an associate professor of political science at Iowa State University. “I would be surprised if it takes them more than about 15 minutes after polls close before they call the race for Branstad. I believe it's going to be that clear and that obvious. I think the Grassley race is going to be even faster.”

Matt Strawn, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, agreed with that analysis, saying Tuesday will mark the day “we tell Chet Culver that your services are no longer needed.”

Culver overcame early stumbles in assembling a campaign team and message that hit its stride during the campaign's stretch run by focusing on Iowa's economic successes relative to the rest of the nation and its recovery from recession and disasters. But, political experts say Branstad had an easier time by being able to turn voter anger and angst against the incumbent with a message that Iowa can do better than the status quo and forcing Culver to play catch-up for most of the campaign.

ISU political science professor Steffen Schmidt said Branstad succeeded in branding Culver early as an ineffective manager with a scandal-plagued administration and “managed to freeze him in place in that particular image.” He said Culver faced a tougher sell and finally settled on an effective counter attack but one that may have come too late when people had already tuned out the 2010 race.

“I think the thing that is hurting Culver a lot is that what's going on in the country is basically such a skepticism of Democrats that even the Democrat who can say the state is doing pretty well and so on is really getting swept away in what is a nationalized election,” Schmidt said. “There is this national theme and I think Culver pretty much got nuked by that.”

Culver hasn't made a great case for his re-election to a second term and tried a strategy of admitting his administration had made mistakes that didn't work because it drew attention to his negatives, according to both ISU political experts. To counter Branstad's attack on his budgeting practices, Culver has played up the state's surplus position in recent weeks but Peterson said that potentially has upset people who believe he cut deeper than needed with a 10 percent across-the-board reduction a year ago, even though some of that spending has been restored.

Stanley questioned that analysis, noting that Iowa's largest teachers' union is backing Culver and state employees are firmly opposed to Branstad given the former GOP governor's track record on labor issues and his plan to scale back benefits and step pay increases as part of a campaign pledge to reduce government spending by 15 percent over five years.

Branstad's strategy has been to point to the 114,000 Iowans who currently are unemployed as a sign that Culver's approach to job creation is not working. The GOP nominee is calling for revamping Iowa's economic development approach by enlisting private-sector help in business recruitment and retention, along with cutting state corporate income taxes and reducing commercial and industrial property taxes.

Culver has countered that effort by offering a $120 million tax cut for working Iowans and casting doubt on Branstad's promises to create jobs, raise income levels and reduce government by pointing to his previous terms when he fell short of promised goals. He also has contrasted their positions on providing preschool and health care for children and protecting civil rights, women's rights and workers' rights on the campaign trail.

Drake University political science professor Arthur Sanders said the economy has been such a dominant theme that it pushed aside Culver's effort to paint Branstad as too extreme given positions that the rural Boone Republican took to survive a GOP challenge from two contenders who were more conservative on social issues.

“For Culver, the timing probably couldn't have been worst,” Sanders said. “The governor has very little control over the economy. They can have an impact at the margins but most of it is a function of the national and international structure. But we blame the current occupant for the way things are going. I think you could make the case that this is not his fault.

“Culver's message of necessity was going to be more complicated and more difficult to make because people aren't particularly happy with the way that things are right now,” he added. “There isn't a single, simple message that will resonate unless you can turn the other person into such a horrible choice that you do have the simple message.”

University of Iowa political scientist Cary Covington agreed that anti-incumbent sentiment in Iowa has not matched the intensity in other parts of the country where “Tea Party sentiment is churning the change,” making somewhat of “an island of calm.” But he said the polling data he has seen point favorably to Branstad in the governor's race.

“I do think economic conditions do a lot to shape the election outcome and Iowans are feeling a lot of pain now in the last couple of years and voters are pretty much ‘what have you done for me lately' type voters, so that's going to make the more recent difficulties more prominent in people's minds than the earlier accomplishments,” Covington said.

Branstad has exuded confidence in the campaign's closing days, but at the same time cautioning supports not to “take anything for granted” as they start their push to mobilize supporters.

“We believe Gov. Branstad is very well positioned to win the only poll that counts and that is the one conducted on Nov. 2,” said Branstad campaign spokesman Tim Albrecht.