Bowl/playoff primer: Sorting out the major scenarios, from chalk to chaos

Only one team appears to have a guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff field. The others are up for grabs.

Big 12 champion Oklahoma (11-1) ranks third in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings and without another game, the Sooners appear set for a playoff spot. As for the rest, that's where it gets interesting.

Teams that should join Oklahoma in the playoff field with wins include No. 1 Clemson (12-0) of the ACC, No. 2 Alabama (11-1) of the SEC and the Big Ten title game winner between No. 4 Iowa (12-0) and No. 5 Michigan State (11-1). Three other teams have outside shots at crashing the playoff party, including No. 6 Ohio State (11-1), No. 7 Stanford (10-2) and No. 10 North Carolina (11-1). Stanford faces No. 20 USC (8-4) for the Pac-12 title, while North Carolina meets Clemson for the ACC championship. Ohio State's regular season is complete.

But more than just the two-game, four-team playoff, four other bowls are in flux until this weekend's results. The New Year's Six bowl games comprises the playoff bowls (Orange, Cotton) plus the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Peach. While consolation prizes in today's world, those games also have prestige and tradition.

Here's a look at the College Football Playoff/New Year's Six background and what to expect with potentially chalk and chaotic scenarios come into play:

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BOWL PRIMER

The selection committee announces its top four teams designated for the College Football Playoff around 11 a.m. Sunday. The top-ranked team will play in the playoff bowl located closest to its campus. Right now that would be Clemson in the Orange Bowl. No. 2 then plays No. 3 at the other bowl (Cotton if Clemson is the top seed), while No. 4 meets No. 1. The games are held Dec. 31 but times are not set.

The Rose and Sugar bowls have predetermined matchups. The Rose Bowl consists of the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions, while the Sugar Bowl hosts champions from the Big 12 and SEC. If any of those conference champions advance to the College Football Playoff — and at least three should this year — then each bowl will select the replacement based on its own criteria. The Sugar Bowl will invite the selection committee's highest-ranked SEC team as a replacement, while the Big 12 invokes a multi-layered tiebreaker scenario. While the Rose Bowl has the option to disregard the rankings, it likely will pick replacements based on rankings as well except for 'extraordinary situations,' according to Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

The Fiesta and Peach bowls are considered access bowls this year. At least two at-large teams, the ACC champion (should it not qualify for the College Football Playoff) and the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5 conferences (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt) gain entry. The committee makes those match-ups based partly on rankings and also upon geography.

The Peach Bowl opens the New Year's Six (the catchy name for this structure) at 11 a.m. CT Dec. 31. Television will determine the starting times for the Cotton and Orange bowls, which also are played Dec. 31. The Fiesta Bowl opens play at noon, Jan. 1, followed by the Rose Bowl (4:10 p.m.) and the Sugar Bowl (7:30 p.m.). ESPN airs all six bowl games.

Next year, the Fiesta and Peach are the national semifinals, while the Rose, Sugar, Orange and Cotton comprise the consolation bowls.

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LAST YEAR'S SITUATION

The inaugural playoff structure last year incorporated the Rose and Sugar bowls. Alabama was seeded No. 1 and was sent to the Sugar Bowl. Oregon and Florida State were ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, and played at the Rose Bowl. Ohio State was fourth and became Alabama's opponent.

Three other teams were automatic qualifiers. ACC champion Georgia Tech (No. 12) played in the Orange Bowl, which plays host to the ACC champion when it's not in the playoff rotation. Boise State (No. 20) was the top champion from the Group of Five and shifted to the Fiesta Bowl. Baylor, the No. 5-ranked Big 12 champion, was placed in the Cotton.

Five teams were designated as at-large selections: 6. TCU; 7. Mississippi State; 8. Michigan State; 9. Ole Miss; 10. Arizona. When it's not in the playoff rotation, the Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked non-champion from the SEC or Big Ten or Notre Dame, if it's ranked higher, to face the ACC champion. Mississippi State flipped spots with Michigan State from the penultimate to the final rankings so it headed to the Orange Bowl.

The selection committee then used geography to place Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State. That game featured the lowest-ranked match-up. Instead of setting up a rematch between Baylor and TCU, the committee paired No. 8 Michigan State with No. 5 Baylor in the Cotton Bowl, and No. 6 TCU with No. 9 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.

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THIS YEAR

There are 20 teams that have shots at competing for a New Year's Six bowl, including the playoff games. While some — like Oklahoma — are virtually locked in, others either need to score an title-game upset (North Carolina, Florida, USC) or hope for massive chaos (Northwestern). Here are the teams with a chance for the New Year's Six and their current ranking:

ACC

— 1. Clemson (12-0); 9. Florida State (10-2); 10. North Carolina (11-1)

Big 12

— 3. Oklahoma (11-1); 11. TCU (10-2); 12. Baylor (9-2); 17. Oklahoma State

Big Ten

— 4. Iowa (12-0); 5. Michigan State (11-1); 6. Ohio State (11-1); 14. Northwestern (10-2)

SEC

— 2. Alabama (11-1); 13. Ole Miss (9-3); 18. Florida (10-2)

Pac-12

— 7. Stanford (10-2); 16. Oregon (9-3); 20. USC (8-4)

American

— 19. Houston (11-1); 22. Temple (10-2)

Independent

— 8. Notre Dame

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League championship games will determine each Power 5 conference's automatic bid (except for the Big 12) for the New Year's Six bowl games. Likewise, the American has a winner-take-all title game. Baylor finishes its regular season against Texas (4-7), in which a Bears win would force a three-way tie with TCU and Oklahoma State for second place. The lengthy tiebreaker process among Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State finds separation only after point differential and favors Baylor.

Here are the weekend's primary title games:

ACC

— Clemson vs. North Carolina at Charlotte

Big Ten

— Iowa vs. Michigan State at Indianapolis

SEC

— Alabama vs. Florida at Atlanta

Pac-12

— Stanford vs. USC at Santa Clara, Calif.

American

— Temple at Houston

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CHALK SCENARIO

If Clemson, Stanford, Alabama and Houston hold serve (Iowa-Michigan State is too close to call), then this is the likely playoff scenario (with current playoff rankings):

Orange

— 1. Clemson

Cotton

— 2. Alabama

Cotton

— 3. Oklahoma (although the Big Ten champion could move up here with a win)

Orange

— 4. Michigan State/Iowa

Match-ups for the Rose and Sugar are predetermined through 2025.

Sugar

— 12. Baylor (wins on point differential against TCU, Oklahoma State)

Sugar

— 13. Ole Miss (ranked higher than Florida)

Rose

— 7. Stanford (automatic Pac-12 champion)

Rose

— Highest-ranked Big Ten team except for 'extraordinary situations.' The presumption is the Big Ten title game loser falls slightly behind Ohio State. But that is undetermined. For now, we'll use 6. Ohio State.

Then for the access bowls. It appears the Iowa-Michigan State loser (we'll rank No. 7), No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 9 Florida State and No. 19 Houston are the four qualifiers. Based on geography (in one case) and using last year's scenarios, here's a reasonable scenario:

Peach

— Florida State vs. Houston. Florida State is the closest to any bowl based on proximity, and these are the lowest-ranked teams.

Fiesta

— Iowa/Michigan State loser vs. Notre Dame. Highest-ranked teams based on match-up.

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NON-CHALK SCENARIO NO. 1

College football thrives on chaos. Upsets happen all the time. It's what makes it the most interesting sport in America. Of the league title games this weekend, one is a coin flip (Michigan State-Iowa) so it won't disrupt the playoff field. Any result other than Alabama beating Florida handily in the SEC championship hardly plausible. The ACC title game between Clemson and North Carolina has potential for upset and would cause chaos. An loss in those three games elevates the importance of the Stanford-USC game.

If North Carolina wins, Clemson tumbles out of the top four. Then the final spot becomes a three-way discussion between Stanford, North Carolina and Ohio State, all of which would leapfrog Clemson and the Big Ten championship game loser.

Currently, defending national champion Ohio State is ranked one spot ahead of Stanford. But the committee emphasizes conference titles as a primary tenet in the selection process. Stanford has two losses — one of which was at Northwestern — while Ohio State was beaten by Michigan State on the game's final play. Both teams had impressive wins last week — OSU crushed rival Michigan 42-13, while Stanford rallied to beat Notre Dame 38-36.

'I think that was an impressive win,' selection committee chairman Jeff Long said about Ohio State's win. 'They dominated that game, and it was a very impressive win to everyone who saw the game and watched it, and certainly added to Ohio State's résumé and is really the most impressive win they have on their résumé.'

Despite its intent to play high-profile opponents, North Carolina's non-conference strength-of-schedule is soft with two FCS victories and a loss to South Carolina in the season opener.

'It isn't only the FCS victories,' selection committee chairman Jeff Long said about North Carolina's low ranking. 'It's the combination of those with a South Carolina loss that is a team that ended up 3-9.

'Again, it's never just one thing. There's multiple things in there that have held North Carolina back, their overall strength of schedule is not strong. Again, depending on the metrics we look at, they're very high in their strength of schedule, which is not a positive for them.'

If UNC beats Clemson, based on Long's quote, it appears the final slot comes down to Stanford and Ohio State. Stanford, by virtue of winning a conference title, would hold the edge. Here's the most likely scenario:

Cotton

— 1. Alabama (Tuscaloosa is located 600 miles from Dallas, nearly 800 from Miami)

Orange

— 2. Oklahoma

Orange

— 3. Michigan State/Iowa

Cotton

— 4. Stanford

The Rose and Sugar then get their match-ups that are predetermined through 2025.

Sugar

— 12. Baylor (wins on point differential against TCU, Oklahoma State)

Sugar

— 13. Ole Miss (ranked higher than Florida)

Rose

— 6. Ohio State (highest ranked Big Ten school)

Rose

— 16. Oregon (highest ranked Pac-12 school)

Then for the access bowls. North Carolina qualifies as an automatic champion. No. 19 Houston (or No. 22 Temple) is an automatic qualifier as the top Group of Five champion. Clemson probably is seeded ahead of both No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Florida State because it beat both teams. The real question is, does the Iowa-Michigan State loser stay ahead of Notre Dame? I think so, because Notre Dame's loss to non-champion Clemson doesn't rate quite as high. So here's a reasonable scenario:

Peach

— North Carolina vs. Houston/Temple. There won't be a rematch between UNC and Clemson, and UNC earned the right to play closer to home.

Fiesta

— Clemson vs. Iowa/Michigan State.

DISRUPTION SCENARIO

For all the reasons listed above, let's say not only does North Carolina beat Clemson, but USC upsets Stanford. Both games are at neutral sites and the point spread is five or fewer in each one. Stanford beat USC 41-31 earlier this year, but USC had major issues that resulted in Coach Steve Sarkisian's dismissal. Clay Helton now is installed as the permanent head coach, and the Trojans have won five of their last six games.

The final slot comes down to Ohio State and North Carolina. Ohio State clearly is viewed as the better team by the selection committee and likely would trump North Carolina's ACC title. If the disruption scenario takes place, here's how that could play out:

Cotton

— 1. Alabama (Tuscaloosa is about 600 miles from Dallas, nearly 800 from Miami)

Orange

— 2. Oklahoma

Orange

— 3. Michigan State/Iowa winner

Cotton

— 4. Ohio State

The Rose and Sugar then get their match-ups that are predetermined through 2025.

Sugar

— 12. Baylor (wins on point differential against TCU, Oklahoma State)

Sugar

— 13. Ole Miss (ranked higher than Florida)

Rose

— 6. Michigan State/Iowa loser or No. 14 Northwestern (highest ranked Big Ten school)

Rose

— 20. USC (Pac-12 champion)

As for the access bowls. North Carolina qualifies as an automatic champion. No. 19 Houston (or Temple) is an automatic qualifier as the top Group of Five team. Clemson gains access here. The final battle comes between Stanford, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Florida State. With three losses, Stanford probably falls behind both schools despite beating Notre Dame last week. Notre Dame remains ranked ahead of FSU because it owns a 3-1 record against common opponents, while FSU is 2-2. Here's how that likely plays out:

Peach

— North Carolina vs. Notre Dame. There won't be a UNC-Clemson rematch or a Clemson-Notre Dame rematch, and UNC earned the right to play closer to home.

Fiesta

— Clemson vs. Houston/Temple

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You could go further in scenarios such as Alabama losing to Florida (which gains the automatic Sugar Bowl slot), but that borders on lunacy if you've watched college football recently. The above scenarios are the most realistic before this weekend. By 3 p.m. Sunday, everything written here is moot.

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com