In Iowa, three leading GOP contenders — and three theories on winning

DES MOINES - The three Republican presidential candidates who are leading in polls of Iowa have settled on three very different theories about what it will take to do well in the caucuses.

Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio have wagered that the state that prides itself on its quirky political traditions is becoming more like the rest of the nation. Stumping only at mega-rallies, Trump might be thought of as having a 'field of dreams” campaign: If he builds it, the voters will come - drawn to his message, bombast and celebrity.

Rubio seems to believe Iowa can be won with an air war - much like a primary campaign, but in a state more accustomed to getting to know candidates in person. In the final three weeks, one in every three TV ads booked is for Rubio, paid for either by his campaign or a super PAC, according to the Des Moines Register. But even Rubio's supporters are complaining that he has not gotten out in the state enough.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the narrow front-runner in recent polls, is taking a traditional approach, albeit one supercharged by technology. Not only is he going out and putting in the effort across the state, but he also is the first in a long line of social conservative-friendly candidates with the money to build sophisticated voter-targeting programs.

'It's not clear to me that everyone who shows up at a rally for Donald necessarily will show up at Election Day and vote for him,” Cruz said in an interview on his campaign bus.

The bus was chugging between Oelwein (population 6,261) and New Hampton (population 3,568) on a grueling six-day swing in which Cruz made 28 campaign stops, some at towns so small that locals said they had never seen a presidential candidate in the flesh.

'I believe that the grass-roots support earned one day at a time and one vote at a time is far more durable and has far greater passion than support that is a result of a momentary political sizzle,” Cruz said.

Having locked into their strategies, the candidates now await the voters to settle on the choices they will make Feb. 1.

'In Iowa, things change very late,” said Ann Selzer, director of the Des Moines Register-Bloomberg Politics poll. 'In our final polls before previous caucuses, we have seen the lead shift during the four days we are interviewing in the field. The candidates want their supporters to lock in, obviously. But is there an upside for caucusgoers?”

A new Des Moines Register survey published Wednesday shows Cruz three points ahead of Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, while Rubio continues to run a distant third, with 12 percent. The poll also showed that a majority of likely caucusgoers - 56 percent - could change their minds.

The voters' quandary was on display every day last week, as the three candidates tore across the state, sometimes close enough for voters to take them all in. Leann Rasmusson, who works part time at a job-training center for the disabled, attended Cruz's Friday morning event at a church in Mason City. Days earlier, she had seen Rubio at a hotel just across the town square. On Saturday, she was driving to nearby Clear Lake to see Trump.

'Who can beat Hillary Clinton?” she asked, referring to the Democratic front-runner, as she waited to hear Cruz's pitch. 'Who can stand up to her? I hate to say it - they're going to have to be just as ruthless as she is.”

Rasmusson worried that Trump might 'lose interest” in the presidency, and she was not impressed when Rubio 'pretty much went through his speech I've heard on TV 100 times.” She had caucused for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008, but in 2016, Cruz's campaign and that of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush have been contacting her the most.

At events across the state, some of the most active conservative voters had similar stories. Rubio, who for months had the highest favorable ratings of any candidate, had slipped a bit. An ad barrage by the pro-Jeb Bush super PAC Right to Rise has focused on Rubio, who is polling about half as strong as Trump and Cruz.

Jordan Russell, Rubio's Iowa spokesman, said the candidate's organization in the state is deeper than some realize.

'Look at the agricultural leaders list and the business leaders list we've released,” he said. 'By the end of the week, we'll have leadership in all 99 counties, over 300 people, and that's going to demonstrate a broad breadth of support. They didn't come on board yesterday - they've been for us for a long time. It's pretty obvious we're consolidating a strong portion of the vote here.”

One question, unanswerable for three more weeks, is whether Trump can win here based on tangible excitement and invisible organization. Rep. Steve King, a northwest Iowa conservative who has endorsed Cruz, called it an 'open question whether Trump somehow energizes people that are not connected,” and said that his political network could detect little 'ground game” for Trump.

Cruz's campaign is allowing itself no room for error. On Monday, 20 volunteers, a number of them from Texas, were working the phones for Cruz at an office park in the Des Moines suburb of Urbandale. A sign on the wall sets their goal at 12,000 calls a day. When they exceed it, deputy director Spence Rogers, an Army veteran, does push-ups. Bryan English, Cruz's Iowa director, said an additional 20 to 25 volunteers were knocking on doors - as they had been over the weekend, when the temperatures were about zero. At night, after people get off work, as many as 60 people may be working the phones at Cruz's campaign office, English said. Signs remind volunteers to 'Please stay on script!” and 'Avoid the temptation to comment on other candidates,” in part because the campaign is now focused on turning out voters already pledging to support Cruz

'The model for grass-roots campaigning in the Iowa caucuses goes back a long way,” English said. 'You look at what Obama did in 2008, with a level of technology being deployed that nobody had seen before. In the Cruz campaign, we've got a marriage of those two components that maybe is unique.”

English was skeptical of how much Rubio will gain by dominating the airwaves in the final stretch.

'I would have said going into this that television advertising is becoming less important,” because people get so much more of their information from the Internet and social media, he said.

A visit later that day to Trump's headquarters found a smaller and less well-oiled machine. Amid pizza boxes and a few mismatched couches, only five people were working the phones in a strip mall office in West Des Moines. Some were reminding voters that they had to be registered Republicans by caucus night.

In the Trump campaign's calculus, all was going as planned. Other campaigns would classify a voter as a '0” or a '1,” because he or she might vote in general elections, but not caucuses. The Trump campaign considers that person gettable, as a way to expand the electorate. If the caucus night turnout cracks the record and reaches 140,000, Trump will have a good night, longtime Iowa operatives believe. If the turnout soars to 150,000, as some now think is in the realm of possibility, it is likely to be a great night for him. The path to that record cuts through every town in Iowa. Steve Reindl and Steve Leake were at Casey's General Store in Manly (population 1,313), when Cruz's bus dropped by Friday. Neither could remember a presidential candidate stopping in Manly, although word in town had it that Clinton and her entourage had recently passed by on the interstate.

Reindl runs a local Goodyear store, and Leake owns Buck's Recycling, a family-run scrap metal operation. Both businesses have been hurt by trade policy with China.

Both men are committed to supporting Trump - and they fit the profile of the new participants the candidate thinks he can bring out Feb. 1.

Neither had caucused before. But both have voted consistently Republican in general elections. And both said they will be at their caucuses this year. Leake even went to the courthouse to make sure he is registered as a Republican, and to find out where his caucus spot is.

'I probably ought to check into that,” Reindl said.

Neither has had any direct contact with Trump's campaign, although both have been following it closely through the media. That gave them a sense, more concrete than any 'ground game” talk, that Trump's strategy is working.

'It's the most important election in my lifetime, because this country is going to hell,” Leake said.

'I'm in the same boat,” Reindl added. 'I think there's a movement this time. ”The following day, both drove 20 miles to Clear Lake and waited a half an hour in near-zero temperatures to get into Trump's rally, then stood for another hour and a half to see the man himself.

Trump didn't disappoint, Leake said. 'I don't disagree with almost anything he said.”