Iowa-Michigan State breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 12-3, 3-0 Big Ten; Michigan State 16-1, 3-1 Big Ten 

TV

6:01 p.m. ESPN (Jason Benetti, Jim Calhoun)

LOCATION

Breslin Center, East Lansing, Mich.

LINE

Michigan State by 6

SERIES

Michigan State leads all-time 71-54; Iowa won 83-70 on Dec. 29, 2015 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena; Michigan State has won 18 straight at Breslin Center

PROFILE

Iowa is ranked 16th by the AP and 19th in the USA Today/Coaches poll; Michigan State is ranked No. 4 in both the USA Today/Coaches and AP polls

KEY MATCHUP

Iowa guard Anthony Clemmons vs. Michigan State guard Denzel Valentine. No college player is as versatile as Valentine, who is the first player in 20 years to average 17 points, eight rebounds and six assists a game. No player in America knows Valentine as well as Clemmons. The two grew up together in Lansing, Mich., played on the same high school basketball team and are best friends. Iowa needs Clemmons to diligently defend Valentine on every possession for the Hawkeyes to have a chance.

'Denzel contributes to about 30-35 points a game with his points, his assists, his pass-to-assist ... He's valuable to their whole offense,' Clemmons said. 'They all feed off his confidence. As someone who played beside of him, I know how that works. He's a great leader, he's a great guy as a teammate.'

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP: Iowa 81.4/67.6; MSU 80.3/61.1

FG%/OPP FG%: Iowa 46.8/40.0; MSU 49.1/35.9

3PT%/OPP 3PT%: Iowa 39.9/30.2; MSU 39.6/26.4

FT%: Iowa 73.1: MSU 72.2

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa: G Mike Gesell (6-2; 9.9 ppg, 6.9 apg); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2; 7.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.6 apg); G Peter Jok (6-6; 13.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9; 18.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg; 3.6 bpg); C Adam Woodbury (7-1; 8.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg)

Michigan State: G Denzel Valentine (6-5; 17.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 6.8 apg); G Tum Tum Nairn (5-10; 3.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 4.6 apg); G Bryn Forbes (6-3; 14.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.4 apg); F Gavin Schilling (6-9; 6.2 pg, 3.3 rpg); F Matt Costello (6-9; 8.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa: G Brady Ellingson (6-4; 4.3 ppg, 1.0 rpg); F Dominique Uhl (6-9; 7.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg); F Nicholas Baer (6-7; 5.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg); F Ahmad Wagner (6-5)

Michigan State: G Eron Harris (6-3l 9.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg); G Javon Bess (6-5; 4.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg); G Matt McQuaid (6-5; 3.5 ppg, 2.0 apg); F Deyonta Davis (6-10; 8.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg), F Marvin Clark (4.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg)

WORTH WATCHING

Two of the Big Ten's top three scorers in Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff and Michigan State's Denzel Valentine rarely will match up against one another, but they are two future NBA players and should put on quite a show. Uthoff, a senior forward, averages 18.6 points a game. He didn't play that well against Michigan State in their last meeting. Uthoff scored 10 points with six rebounds but had eight turnovers. Valentine missed four games after Dec. 21 knee surgery and returned as a reserve Sunday against Penn State. He scored 10 points, grabbed five boards and dished four assists in 23 minutes.

Uthoff is one of only three players nationally with 50 blocks. Uthoff is the only player with at least 275 points, 90 rebounds and 50 blocks this year. Uthoff earned praise from Michigan State Coach Tom Izzo despite his struggles against the Spartans.

'He's in the post more, offensively and defensively,' Izzo said. 'I think that's been a plus. I think he was a lot more of just a 3-point shooter and a perimeter guy. Now he posts up a little bit more on offense. He's guarding people down there a little bit better down there on defense. I think like we all do, the maturation process has made him a little more physical and better mentally prepared to do those things.'

Valentine twice was named national player of the week this year. Against Kansas on Nov. 17, Valentine scored 29 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and dished 12 assists. He scored a career-high 32 points against Boise State 10 days later.

'He's incredibly unique because he can take a game over,' Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said. 'He plays multiple positions; he can bring it down; he can post up; he can play on the wing. If the game is fast, he can play if it's in halfcourt.

'When it's all said and done, he's one of the leading scorers in our league but he may impact the game more with his passing than anything else. He loads everybody up and makes everybody else better. The impact that he has on the game and their ability to score is dramatically different.'

BOTTOM LINE

Iowa hasn't won in East Lansing since 1993, a span of 18 games. Most of those games were non-competitive. Michigan State has beaten Iowa by an average score of 82-63 in the last 14 games at Breslin Center.

But this isn't the same old match-up between Michigan State and Iowa. For one, the Hawkeyes beat Michigan State 83-70 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Dec. 29. It ended Iowa's nine-game series losing streak. Both teams are ranked in the top 20 and among the Big Ten's title contenders. Iowa has four returning starters from last year's team that advanced to the NCAA tournament. The Hawkeyes already have played in tough road venues in Ames and West Lafayette this year.

Both teams are statistically strong. Michigan State leads the country with a 13.6 per-game rebounding edge and are second nationally in assists with 21.1 a game. Iowa leads the Big Ten in blocked shots and ranks second among Big Ten teams in scoring and 3-point defensive percentage. Both teams are among the league's best defensively.

'Michigan State is a team that can really crank up their defensive intensity,' Iowa guard Mike Gesell said. 'I think when they do that, it's easy for teams to start quick-shooting the ball or get away from what they've been doing the whole game to have success. I think we've have that experience now. The games we've played there have prepared us and our games that we've played here have prepared us, too. I think we'll be ready when those opportunities come in the game and it's going to be a fun matchup.'

PREDICTION

With Michigan State's prowess this season and its home-court tenacity, it's almost insane to pick against the Spartans at the Breslin Center this year. Michigan State will be properly motivated after Iowa embarrassed the Spartans two weeks ago. Plus, with Valentine's return, expect a more potent and versatile Spartan unit.

But Iowa shouldn't wither against Michigan State as it had in the past. The win two weeks ago should give the Hawkeyes confidence, as should their 19-point comeback at Purdue. Iowa has veteran leadership at the point and center plus Uthoff is a mismatch for any team.

I expect Michigan State to get out in front early, but Iowa should limit MSU's runs before they get too extreme. For most of the game, I see it wavering between four and seven points in Michigan State's favor. MSU's depth and home-court advantage appears too much for Iowa to overcome.

Michigan State 79, Iowa 74

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com