Iowa-Michigan breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 20-9, 11-6 Big Ten; Michigan 20-10, 10-7 Big Ten

TV/RADIO

7:06 p.m. BTN (Joe Davis, Jon Crispin); 600/800 AM (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

LOCATION

Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Mich. (12,707)

LINE

Iowa by 1

SERIES

Michigan leads all-time 91-61; Iowa has won the last three; Iowa won earlier meeting 82-71

PROFILE

Iowa is ranked 16th by the AP and 15th in the USA Today/Coaches poll; Michigan is unranked

KEY MATCHUP

Iowa guard Mike Gesell vs. Michigan guard Derrick Walton Jr. Gesell has been a solid, on-ball defender for the Hawkeyes this year, and he'll be challenged by Walton. The Wolverines' point guard averages 12.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He ranks among the Big Ten's top 20 in seven different categories.

'(Walton is) a tough kid, a talented player, he's a terrific athlete, he's smart,' Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said. 'He has the ball and he's running it. He's got the green light to shoot it, he's got the green light to drive it.'

In league-only games, Gesell is third in assists, first in assist-to-turnover ratio and eighth in steals. He's the first Iowa player since B.J. Armstrong in 1988-89 to record at least 10 assists in four games.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP: Iowa 78.8/68.6; MICH 75.4/66.9

FG%/OPP FG%: Iowa 45.5/41.2; MICH 47.7/44.5

3PT%/OPP 3PT%: Iowa 38.5/30.3; MICH 39.7/34.9

FT%: Iowa 72.1: MICH 73.8

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa: G Mike Gesell (6-2; 8.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 6.0 apg); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2; 9.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.8 apg); G Peter Jok (6-6; 16.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9; 18.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg; 2.9 bpg); C Adam Woodbury (7-1; 8.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg)

Michigan: G Derrick Walton Jr. (6-1, 12.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.1 apg); G Zak Irvin (6-6, 11.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg); G Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (6-4, 7.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg), G Duncan Robinson (6-8, 11.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg); F Mark Donnal (6-9, 8.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa: F Dom Uhl (6-9; 6.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg); F Nicholas Baer (6-7; 4.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg); F Ahmad Wagner (6-5, 2.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg); Christian Williams (6-6; 0.7; 0.7)

Michigan: G Aubrey Dawkins (6-6, 7.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg); F Ricky Doyle (6-9, 4.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg); F Moritz Wagner (6-10, 2.6 ppg, 1.3 rpg)

WORTH WATCHING

The game carries significance for both teams regarding postseason tournaments. Iowa appears a virtual lock for the NCAA tournament, but Michigan (RPI: 59) could need another win to solidify a bid. As for the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa could finish anywhere from fourth (a double-bye) to seventh (single-bye) based on the result. If Iowa beats Michigan and Purdue tops Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes would wrap up the fourth spot and wouldn't play until about 2:30 p.m. Friday. A loss would push the Hawkeyes into the seventh spot.

'I don't think about it that way,' McCaffery said. 'We've got to figure out how to beat Michigan. I have a ton of respect for John Beilein and the year they've had and the players they have. We're going to be on the road. We've got to be locked in.

'It was a while ago when we played them so what changes have they made? Who's doing what for them, and what do we need to do to beat them? If we beat them, that stuff may or may not fall into place.'

BOTTOM LINE/PREDICTION

It's a crucial game for both teams, from Michigan's NCAA hopes to Iowa just getting back in the win column. The Hawkeyes have lost four straight games and five of their last six to stumble from a No. 3 national ranking, a likely top NCAA seed and a two-game date in Des Moines to the NCAA's seeding mercy. Michigan now rests in First Four territory, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

Iowa has won three straight in the series by an average of 16 points. But the Hawkeyes had lost five straight in Ann Arbor before last year's 72-54 victory. The Wolverines are 13-3 at home this year with all three losses coming to top-11 teams (Xavier, Indiana, Michigan State).

Michigan launches a ton of 3-pointers and connects on 38 percent in Big Ten play, just ahead of Iowa (37.7 percent) to rank third. Four players have hit more than 40 3-pointers and three shoot better than 40 percent. Iowa has allowed 10 or more in three of its last four games. Likewise, Iowa has knocked down just 37 of its last 110 3-point shots.

A road environment against a desperate team (a la at Ohio State on Sunday) has spelled difficulty for the Hawkeyes. That's especially true against a team that can shoot the 3. The Hawkeyes are more than capable of winning this game. But it's difficult to pick Iowa to beat a good team until they prove they can win again.

Prediction: Michigan 73, Iowa 71

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com