Iowa-Gonzaga breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 22-11; Gonzaga 33-2

TV

6:10 p.m. TBS (Spero Dedes, Mike Gminski, Jaime Maggio)

LOCATION

KeyArena, Seattle

LINE

Gonzaga by 6

PREVIOUS MEETING

Iowa leads all-time series 2-0

TOURNAMENT PROFILE

Iowa is the No. 7 seed while Davidson is the 10th seed; winner will play 11th-seeded UCLA (22-13) in Sweet Sixteen on Friday in Houston

KEY MATCHUP

Kevin Pangos vs. Mike Gesell.

Most of the conversation swirls around Gonzaga forward Kyle Wiltjer and Iowa forward Aaron White, but the Pangos-Gesell match-up may provide a better indicator of this game. Both were ruthlessly efficient on Friday. Pangos scored 18 points (15 in the second half) and had five assists with no turnovers. Gesell scored 15 points with six assists and no turnovers, all while playing tenacious defense on Davidson point guard Jack Gibbs. Pangos is a four-time, first-team all-WCC selection. Gesell hasn't reached that acclaim, but he has produced in the clutch late this season.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 69.8/61.6; ZAG 79.3/61.3

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 43.0/39.0; ZAG 52.4/38.9

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 33.3/31.9; ZAG 40.5/33.0

FT%:

Iowa 74.5; ZAG 71.1

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Gonzaga:

G Kevin Pangos (6-2); G Gary Bell Jr. (6-2); G Byron Wesley (6-4); F Kyle Wiltjer (6-10); C Przemek Karnowski (7-1)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Gonzaga:

F Domantas Sabonis (6-10); G Kyle Dranginis (6-5); G Eric McClellan (6-3)

BOTTOM LINE

Both teams prefer high-tempo games, and that's what's likely to happen. Gonzaga is the nation's most efficient offense at 52.4 percent shooting. The Bulldogs rank fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.57), sixth in assists per game (16.5) and ninth in scoring (79.3). Gonzaga plays a European style of basketball that relies on skill and finesse at every position, and the Bulldogs have scorers everywhere. The Bulldogs forced 13 North Dakota State turnovers and turned them into 24 points.

Iowa boasts one of the nation's most versatile teams. The Hawkeyes can slug it out, which was proved in Big Ten play with a 12-6 record. But Coach Fran McCaffery prefers to play up-tempo, which is what Iowa did the other day. In their 83-52 bludgeoning of Davidson, Iowa's defense strangled the Wildcats, which allowed the Hawkeyes to run. Aaron White scored 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting.

Foul trouble couuld determine the outcome between the teams. Both teams have physical post players and if one gets dinged early that could create an edge. Iowa had 11 fouls against Davidson and no player had more than two. Gonzaga had two players with at least three, and center Przemek Karnowski had four in 22 minutes.

There's two Iowa games under Coach Fran McCaffery that come to mind with this match-up. The first is Virginia in a 2012 NIT quarterfinal. While that was a true road game, this one is neutral in name only. In a season where Iowa failed in the clutch, the Hawkeyes went 15-for-15 from the free-throw line, 14 of which were in the final three minutes and pull out a win. The other is Iowa's game against Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game. The Hawkeyes led by 12 early in the second half before Villanova crushed a pair of 3-pointers on consecutive possessions. That game went into overtime before Villanova pulled it out.

Iowa is 1-4 on neutral sites this year, counting its win against Davidson. But the Hawkeyes are 7-3 in true road games. Gonzaga's Spokane location gives it a natural edge, but that doesn't seem to bother the Hawkeyes.

'We've played in so many different arenas,” Iowa center Gabe Olaseni said. 'We've been to Iowa State, we've been to Wisconsin. Those guys hate us. So we're looking forward to (the game) and hopefully continue our winning ways.”

PREDICTION:

The teams are experienced and have played against good competition. This game comes down to 1-2 possessions and foul trouble. It will reach up-tempo at times but the teams will slow it down, too. Iowa has played a high level for a month (outside of the Penn State hiccup), going 7-1 and winning by an average of 19.4 points. Plus, it seems like destiny for the Hawkeyes to meet old coach Steve Alford.

Iowa 73, Gonzaga 69

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com