Iowa-Davidson breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 21-11; Davidson 24-7

TV

6:20 p.m. TNT (Spero Dedes, Mike Gminski, Jaime Maggio)

LOCATION

KeyArena, Seattle

LINE

Iowa by 3

PREVIOUS MEETING

Iowa leads all-time series 1-0

TOURNAMENT PROFILE

Iowa is the No. 7 seed while Davidson is the 10th seed; winner will play 2. Gonzaga/15. North Dakota State winner on Sunday

KEY MATCHUP

Jarrod Uthoff vs. Tyler Kalinoski.

Kalinoski was named the Atlantic-10's player of the year after compiling 17.0 points per game (third), 128 assists (third), 43.1 3-point percentage (fourth) and 91 3-pointers (first). He's a 6-foot-4 guard who has range and can create his own shot. At 6-9, Uthoff has length and has blocked a team-high 54 shots, many of which have come from the perimeter. Uthoff also has a strong step-back jumper, which few can contest. Uthoff averages 12.3 points and 6.3 rebounds a game and presents the best inside-outside game for either team.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 69.4/61.9; DAV 79.9/69.0

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 42.7/39.2; DAV 47.1/44.0

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 33.2/32.4; DAV 39.7/30.1

FT%:

Iowa 74.5; DAV 71.1

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Davidson:

G Jack Gibbs (6-0); G Brian Sullivan (5-11); G Tyler Kalinoski (6-4); G Jordan Barham (6-4); F Peyton Aldridge (6-7)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Davidson:

F Andrew McAuliffe (6-8); F Oskar Michelsen (6-9); Jordan Watkins (6-1); F Nathan Ekwu (6-7)

BOTTOM LINE

This game simply comes down to one aspect: can Iowa defend the perimeter against the Wildcats? Davidson ranked third nationally in 3-pointers, 3-point attempts and assists per game. Davidson was sixth nationally in scoring and fewest turnovers per game. The Wildcats are ruthlessly efficient in transition and take advantage of any defensive weakness.

Iowa, however, has an immense size advantage. Davidson starts only one player taller than 6-4. Iowa starts only one player shorter than 6-4. Iowa ranked second in Big Ten scoring defense (61.9 percent) and led the league in field-goal defense (39.2 percent). Iowa's rebounding edge will be immense with all-Big Ten forwards Aaron White (first team) and Jarrod Uthoff (third team).

Davidson's pace presents a challenge for most opponents and its crisp passing game make defenses cringe. Iowa would like to play up-tempo, too, but the Big Ten doesn't always allow it. The Hawkeyes boast one of the nation's top transition post players in White plus a center tandem in Gabe Olaseni and Adam Woodbury that Davidson cannot match.

Iowa's rebounding edge should be decisive. In games away from home, Davidson was minus-1.2 in rebounding. Iowa ranked 40th nationally in offensive rebounds, while Davidson was 182nd. Iowa also played in the nation's most physical league, which cannot be ignored.

If Iowa defends the perimeter and contests shots with consistency (and hit a few outside shots themselves), the Hawkeyes win this game going away. Iowa's size advantage and rebounding edge would be too decisive. But Davidson is too good and too disciplined to let that happen completely, however. The most important crossroads in this game for Iowa is when it gets a decent lead (7-12 points), will it stay in tune on defense? If it does, the Hawkeyes should get its first NCAA tournament win since 2001. If not, this game goes down to the wire. With its vast array of terrific shooters, that would play into Davidson's hands.

PREDICTION:

Iowa 79, Davidson 72

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com