Poll: Grassley leads Conlin 54 to 37 percent

UPDATED: Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley continues to earn more than 50 percent support in his bid for reelection in Iowa against Democratic nominee Roxanne Conlin, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters. 

The telephone survey found Grassley earning 54 percent of the vote, while Conlin, the winner of last week's Senate Democratic primary contest, attracting 37 percent.  Only 2 percent prefer some other candidate, and another 8 percent are undecided.

The telephone survey found Grassley earning 54 percent of the vote, while Conlin, the winner of last week's Senate Democratic primary contest, attracting 37 percent.  Only 2 percent prefer some other candidate, and another 8 percent are undecided.

That Conlin trails Grassley comes as no surprise to Mark Daley, her campaign manager, who pointed out the incumbent “has had 51 years in office to become a household name.”

“Our campaign to replace this career politician concerned with his next election with a grandmother concerned with the next generation is gaining strength every day and we are a long ways from election day,” Daley said.

On the other hand, Grassley campaign spokesman Eric Woolson said Conlin's support has dropped despite Rasmussen finding that most primary election winners get a bounce.

Grassley's support increased from 53 to 54 percent since early May. Conlin's dropped from 40 percent to 37 percent, according to Rasmussen.

“It's certainly a huge strategic setback for that campaign, especially considering its aggressive advertising effort following the primary to try to magnify what ordinarily would have been a big post-primary bump,” Woolson said. “Some Iowans have noted that her campaign has failed to ignite. Today's numbers show even the fuse seems to have gone out.”

Surveys conducted since February show Grassley's support ranging from 53 to 55 percent. Support for Conlin, a former U.S. attorney, has ranged from 37 to 40 percent.  In late April, Grassley led Conlin 53 percent to 40 percent.

Among male voters in Iowa, Grassley leads Conlin by a two-to-one margin, and he has a slight edge among female voters.  Grassley holds a double-digit lead over Conlin among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Grassley, a northeast Iowa farmer seeking a sixth six-year term, is viewed Very Favorably by 28 percent of Iowa voters and Very Unfavorably by 14 percent.

Fifteen percent of those surveyed share a Very Favorable opinion of Conlin, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1982.  Seventeen percent view her Very Unfavorably. 

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on June 14, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.